G.  If not Hussein, then who?  
Updated 12/14/2005

After Hussein:  U.S. Military Occupation and then...

The Turks still call the Kurds "mountain Turks."  Kurds and Sunni are each about 20% of the population of Iraq; Shia, at 60%, have felt economically and politically repressed for decades. Shia live mostly in southern Iraq, especially Basra. The Kurds might or might not support a US invasion, as they have "their own state in all but name." Kurds were reassured that Turkey will not join at attack, but only in February, after months of negotiations, does Turkey seem willing to allow use of its bases. 

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2.  Is Ahmad Chalabi the leading "candidate" to take over if Hussein were killed?

Ahmad Chalabi, who heads the Iraqi National Congress,  is a Shiite business man who left Iraq in '58.  He is a  MIT graduate who earned a doctorate in mathematics (mathematical knot theory) from the University of Chicago.  Cheney and Rumsfeld have met with Chalabi. Despite White House and Pentagon support, Chalabi is seen at CIA and State as a "divisive, autocratic blowhard" (Time). One official who helped form the INC "viewed Chalabi like a 1950s Southerner running on the Republican ticket.  Everyone knew he didn't have a chance" (Out of the Ashes, 57).

One adviser to Chalabi felt the CIA/State "motto had been 'ABC'--Anybody But Chalabi" (NYTimes, 10/2/02).  Some felt the inter-agency rivalries had only bee papered over. 

Hussein is Sunni but Iraq has had a practicing Christian (Tariq Aziz) as its deputy prime minister for 20 years. Some fear the country might be split between Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south, much as Yugoslavia after Tito (Amb. Edward Peck, 3/02) and much as the Ottoman Turks had divided the region into the same three provinces.  A Brookings Institute scholar concurs:  "Removing Saddam will be opening a Pandora's box, and there might not be any easy way to close it back up."  For more details on Iraq's future, see The New Yorker's "The Debate Within", Christian Science Monitor's "Ex-smuggler describes Iraqi plot" and The Guardian's "After Saddam"

Other opposition leaders mentioned as early as September of 2002 included Ayad Alawi (Iraqi National Accord) and Mohammed Bakir Hakim (Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution). For more on Hakim and his assassination, see "PS" FAQ section 

3.  Who are the Iraq National Congress (INC)?
The Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella organization, was  created by the CIA in Vienna after the Gulf War.  CIA officers were first stationed in Kurdistan in 1994. The INC is funded on and off with tens of millions of dollars annually by the State Department ($97 million is 1998),  is based on London, and is dominated by Shia.  The INC seems to have limited support (Sandra Mackey and others)  leading some to fear that counting on their military support may lead to a Cuba-like “Bay of Goats" or another Somalia.  INC leader Ahmad Chalabi realizes that a "made in the USA" government (the INC is also friendly with Israel) would not be acceptable to most Iraqis. Yet, in October Chalabi seemed to realize how little power opposition groups really had: "If the U.S. wants to do it, who are we to say no?  We can't stop them." The INC held a meeting in Washington in late-April where Chalabi convinced the State Department to restart funding for Liberty TV and Radio Free Iraq, propaganda to Iraq.  In a June INC meeting with the White House, the INC turned down a new $8 million offer as "unacceptably small." Finally, in August, after another meeting organized by the U.S., the State Department released the $8 million to the INC (Chicago Tribune, 8/16/02) and in December Bush approved $92 million in training and other funding for a 5000 man opposition militia sponsored by the INC. The world-wide diaspora of Iraqis, four million, totals 300,000 in the US. The Guardian reports in "Our Enemies Enemy" that one INC leader feels the U.S. wants a "Sunni hard man who would repress the Kurds in the north and the Shia Muslims in the south, but leave Kuwait and Israel alone." Historically, the U.S. has simply desired two things from the Iraqi government:  oil and stability. The Guardian further reports on U.S. government "Turf Wars" over Iraqi opposition. The INC has strong support in the Defense Department, Cheney, Senator Trent Lott and Richard Perle, but CIA director George Tenet who favors the coup option, "loathes the INC."  The State Department has "animus" toward and "endless battles" with the group (Washington Post, 5/3/02). The INC is one of the fragmented exile groups which cannot even agree on the material of its own web site.  The Post calls INC "an umbrella that covers hardly anyone."  As even the INC adviser proclaimed, "Iraq is a complicated place." There have been six coup attempts since 1990. In August they allegedly attempted an assassination of Hussein's son Qusay. For more on Hussein's sons and their death,  see "PS" FAQ section.

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4.  Who speaks for the Kurds?  Also see "Allies" FAQ section on Turkey
The Kurds split into two main opposition groups after a failed uprising against Hussein in 1975. In 1996 one group (KDP's Barzani) even invited his enemy Hussein to invade Kurdistan and crush the INC and the other Kurds's active support from Iran.  As usual, the U.S. refused to intervene.  After this INC offensive failed, U.S. policy under Clinton and now Bush has focused more on a coup than on internal rebellion.  Eventually, INC's Chalabi's prestige skyrocketed when he brokered a (temporary) cease-fire between the two groups in 1998.  The Kurds have been betrayed by the U.S. in the past so exile groups are wary of the U.S. In January and February of 2003, the Kurds feared that they would be abandoned as the U.S. sought tighter military alliances with Turkey. 

Barzani and Talabani met with CIA and State secretly in April of 2002 in Berlin to "help them bury the hatchet" (Time, 5/13/02). In the fall of 2002 (Sept. 7-8) the KDP and PUK met inside Iraq for the first time in seven years.  They spoke of raising 80,000 pershmerga fighters for the war.

In mid-October the U.S. began psychological operations campaign in Kurdish areas of northern Iraq, including broadcasts and leaflets urging an uprising. The CIA has been working openly in northern Iraq since at least October.

The  Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by Massoud Barzani, is supported by Turkey, is strong in rural areas, and has sympathy in Baghdad.  Barzani has spoken out against a U.S. invasion (The Guardian, 6/19/02). Yet other Kurds in January 2003 proclaimed "occupy us please."  They feared the U.S. would not attack Iraq ("Cowboy Welcome in Kurdistan", 1/29/03, WashPost).

5.  How did Washington support these opposition groups and leaders?
A large conference in London took place in mid-December 2002, sponsored by the US, with mixed results and after many delays.  The New York Times called it "part political convention and part public relations display." Commented one delegate, "It was like Noah's ark, except that no one yet knows who'll be Noah." The groups obviously still don't trust each other, despite U.S. "coaching". The State Department released its lengthy "The Transition to Democracy in Iraq" document in November 2002. The U.S. allocated $5 million for a May meeting in Europe of Iraqi émigrés to plan the next Iraqi government, but the conference was delayed  mostly because CIA, State, Defense, and the White House can't agree who to support.  The name of the group and conferences keeps changing, even with U.S. guidance and advice for unity.  Among those are:  "Iraqi Opposition Delegation", "The Future of Iraq Project", "Transition to Democratic Iraq," "Iraqi Open Opposition Conference" or  "The Democratic Principles Working Group" The meetings suffered many delays during the summer and fall of 2002, partly because of infighting and the INC threats to boycott. In October Chalabi called for a provisional government to be established. The delegation finally met in London in mid-December. 300 opposition leaders from 50 different groups, led by the U.S., tried to disguise divisions to agree on "a bland common position" by naming a 65-member follow-up committee or "pre-transition council"  which planned to meet in January in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil. Not surprisingly, the meeting was delayed indefinitely over various squabbles and  finally took place in early March.

Up to 3000 began receiving military training and funding of $92 million in Hungary in January, to be used in the war as translators, guides, military police, and liaisons. The groups try to represent the five million or so Iraqi living abroad, or about 20% of the Iraqi population. The opposition groups worry that "The Americans, not the Iraqis, will decide who will govern the country if they topple Mr. Hussein, a concern that American official have done little to dispel" (New York Times, 12/16/02). The main six groups, hand-picked by the US, were INA, INC, the two Kurdish groups, the Constitutional Monarchy Party, and the SCIRI.  Besides Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds, also represented are Turkomen and the 800,000 Assyrian Christians.  Also called Chaldeans, these Christians mostly live in the north near Mosul.  Some of these Assyrian Christians still speak Aramaic, the language of Jesus.  Deputy Prime Minister and former Foreign Minister Aziz is Christian.  The delegation will receive crash courses and PR training from the U.S. and at one point had planned to elect of U.S.-backed government in exile. This plan was mixed by the U.S. as was the one Chalabi hoped for, declaring a provincial government as the war began.

Meanwhile, in early November a new U.S. group called "Committee for the Liberation of Iraq" was formed, partly with sitting Senators, to begin a lobby campaign.  Their first meeting was in the White House. Also see The Washington Post's special section, "Iraqi Opposition Groups." and a second very thorough site on Iraqi Opposition.

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6.  Who are the other opposition groups and leaders?
The Iraqi National Accord (INA),  including former Baath party and military leaders, CIA supported for at least six years, is headed by Ayad Alawi, and is involved in US-backed covert operations inside Iraq.  The INA has been loosely affiliated with the INC at times.  An INA coup attempt in June, 1996, supported by President Clinton, CIA, Saudi Arabia ($6 million), Kuwait, and Jordan, failed miserably when CIA spy equipment was found by Iraq.  Hundreds of Iraqis were executed.  Also see "Talks with Iraqi Opposition Intensify."  In June another group began being mentioned, The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), a Shi'ite group formerly allied with the INC. SCIRI also opposes U.S. strikes to overthrow Hussein, according to its head Ayatollah Mohamed Bakr al-Hakim. Those attending an August meeting in Washington were Chalabi, Talabani, Barzani, Allawi, al-Hakim, and a leader of the new Constitutional Monarchy Movement (CMM) The CMM is led by Jordan's Prince Sharft Ali Bin al Hussein, who traces his roots 42 generations from Muhammed.  He is the younger brother of Jordan's former King Hussein and a cousin of the last Iraqi King, killed in a 1958 coup.  The Iraqi monarchy was installed by Britain in 1921.  Prince Hussein felt the State Department was shunning him in the fall of 2002. 

An elderly opposition leader from pre-Hussein days was mentioned starting in mid-February.  Adnan Pachachi had been foreign minister and Iraqi ambassador to the UN  in the 1950s and '60s, and had first visited Washington, D.C. in 1944.  Pachachi had also once declared that Kuwait was part of Iraq but quit when Saddam came to power. Pachachi's father in father-in-law were Prime Minister under the Iraqi monarch.  He was educated at a private academy in Alexandria, Egypt and his daughter attended school in "an exclusive Massachusetts girls school."  A secular Sunni Muslim he urged the Iraqi army be used early on as the war wound down, saying that the army "is not loyal to Saddam Hussein".  Pachachi turned 80 in May, 2003.

Kenneth Pollack advised the U.S. against "anointing a group of exiles...[because] that would make us look like a colonial power" (NYTimes, 2/11/03). 

In mid-August a group of obscure anti-Hussein Iraqi exiles took over the Iraqi embassy in Berlin. 

7.  Who else could take over if Hussein was killed or assassinated?
The Guardian has put together a "Hussein's Inner Circle" site with visuals and links and in mid-November wrote that "The US will soon have to choose Saddam's successor." Editorialized the Times Friedman, "Arab Sunnis are worried that if Iraq becomes a democracy, Iraq's Shiite majority--which ahs always been under the thumb of Iraq's Sunni minority--will take over and energize Shiites in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Bahrain to start challenging Sunni domination."  This was the same fear that led the U.S. to support Iraq its war with Iran (see "History" FAQ section.) Earlier in the year, The French News Agency (2/11/02) reported that defector and former Iraqi army chief of staff General Nizar al-Khazraji has been picked by the U.S. to run Iraq after the overthrow.  Al-Khazraji lives in exile in Copenhagen, but was arrested for war crimes by the Danish authorities on November.  Sources report that the general was involved in gassing the Kurds in the 1988 Anfal campaign, which he denies. 

Other possibilities include Hussein's powerful cousin and former defense minister, Ali Hassan al-Majid, known by Kurds as "Chemical Ali" for his poison gas and execution squads during the 1980s.  He killed his own nephew, Hussein Kamel, upon Kamel's return from his public defection to Jordan.  

A "rapidly rising star" was Brigadier-General Najib Salihi, a former commander of Hussein's Republican Guard. A leader exiled army officer is Major-General Tawfiz al-Yassiri, will be a player in the Netherlands conference.

In addition, Hussein's trusted sons, Uday (Odai), 39, and Qusay Hussein, 37,  are part of the powerful and intermarried (by cousins) Majid clan of Tikrit, their father's hometown north of Baghdad. These two, no  lovers of freedom and free press,  were also possible candidates. 

In January 2003, NPR (1/22) reported that Uday tortures poorly performing Iraq Olympic athletes in torture chambers inside Iraq. The Atlantic and Time cover stories (5/02) report that Uday"the young prince," is "deranged, wild, and thuggish."  Uday is also cruel, brutal, and an often drunk womanizer.   Once seen as successor, he became a "volatile erratic playboy" who murdered his father's favorite food taster. Uday speaks fluent English, took his SATs, and at one time hoped to be a nuclear scientist, but ran the popular and controversial newspaper Babel and headed the Saddamists Union. The despised Uday was nearly killed in an ambush in Baghdad in December 1996 by a secret underground group of college-educated Iraqis called al-Hahdad, "The Awakening." They hoped to assassinate the "four pillars": Saddam, Uday, Qusay, and their powerful cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid.   Kenneth Pollack says, "The list of people with a motive to kill Uday was almost endless beginning with his closest relations and extending to the thousands of fathers, sons, cousins, and friends of all the women he had raped and tortured, and all of the men he had tortured and executed" (Wash Post, 3/19). On the eve of war Uday called President Bush "unstable" and called on him to "give up power in American with his family".  Uday warned that American troops "should not believe there is a single safe spot for them inside Iraq or outside Iraq" (NYTimes, 3/18).  Younger Qusay, 36, "lacks charisma", but is intelligent, hard-working, and unscrupulous.  Qusay, more trusted by his father was "being groomed" as heir apparent and was in charge of concealment during UNSCOM's last years (see "Sanctions" FAQ section) and is supported by his elite SSO forces of the Republican Guard and was in charge of security and intelligence. In August he was allegedly injured in an assassination attack by the INC.

For updates, see "PS" FAQ section on Hussein's sons.

8.  Can we trust Iraqi defectors?  Do they seek U.S. aid?
Those who have received millions of U.S. dollars in the past few years and hope for millions more to overthrow Hussein may be biased in their views. They may feel under pressure to say more than they really know. Allies and enemies can shift quickly. One ex-smuggler, Mohamed Mansour Shahab, describes alleged Iraqi government plots such as the USS Cole, revenge because "The Americans were killing Iraqis, and women and children were dying...because of U.S. sanctions."

Adnan Ihsan Saeed al-Haideri defected in December 2001 and claimed that up to 300 secret weapons facilities have been "reactivated" since the withdraw of the UN inspectors in 1996.  These sites, he claimed, were cleverly disguised (Wash Post, 7/31/02). 

In the summer of 2003, a top Times writer on Iraq admitted that before the war her source on alleged Iraqi weapons was often the INC, a group invested in overthrowing Hussein.