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After Iraq, will the U.S. focus Al Qaeda, North Korea,Syria, Libya, Venezuela, and/or Israel-Palestinian peace? 
What of attacks in Spain and London?
The Christmas 2009 Bomber above Detroit?

Also see "Afghanistan" Also see "Is Iran Next?"
Also see "Pakistan" FAQ.

Also see "Was the War Inevitable?" FAQ for related discussions. 

In "Next" topics in addition to Iran, before the President's 5-day July 2003 trip to Africa, the UN's Kofi Annan asked the U.S. to provide peace keeping troops to Liberia.  Concerning Liberia, Jim Hoagland's Post July 18 Commentary considers a link between the African country and Iraq.  The U.S. ended of sending about 200 troops in August.

Also see "Is Iran Next?"

Two deadly terrorist attacks occurred in May, likely al Qaeda.  May 12 in Saudi Arabia killed 7 and injured 34 while in Casablanca another bombing killed 16 and injured 40. Another horrible attack occurred in Saudi Arabia in November, killing more Muslims than Westerners.  The Saudi government seems to want to fight against al Qaeda without antagonizing Muslim Fundamentalists.

For June and most of July of 2004, the tone toward Syria had been more favorable. However, in mid-October Congress passed tough sanctions against Syria and President Bashar Assad, which will lead to more conflictual relations.  Could Syria be the next country attacked by the U.S.?  This is my best guess in November 2003.  In May 2004 long-anticipated sanctions against Syria were announced by the U.S.  One of the main causes is Syria's alleged development of WMD

.In 2005, Syria continued to get bad press in the US.  Many commentators felt they were probably responsible for the February assassination of the former leader of Lebanon, Hariri.  Reports late that month suggested that Syrian intelligence agents are helping train suicide bombers and kidnappers in Iraq.  US Commander Abizaid said to the Senate Armed Services Committee inn early March, "Syria has not yet done enough in our view to stop that infiltration... [and is] a de facto safe haven for former Baathists" although the extent of official Syrian support was unclear."  As the US and other countries push Syria to withdraw from Lebanon, one wonders if Syria has leaped ahead of Iran as the most likely "next target" for the US military. As a Post editorial put it, "Assad figured he could sponsor terrorism in Iraq and Israel and thereby block progress toward democracy and peace." 

In March, a Guardian commentary was bemused by the irony of President Bush's demands that Syrian troops leave Lebanon "because you cannot hold free and fair elections under foreign military occupation." 

In the fall of 2005, US raids against Syrian forces reportedly took place on Syrian soil.  US officials deny these allegations.  Operations have spilled over the border, "sometimes by accident, sometimes by design," reports the front-page Times story. Three is talk of Special Operations forces moving into Syria.  

During the same week, an investigation concluded that the Syrian government must have known about or been involved with the assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri in February. President Bush wants the UN to force sanctions on Syria if they did not fully cooperate with the further assassination investigation. Is regime change in Syria next? China and Russia were two UN powers who vowed to work against these sanctions. A resolution was passed, but without specific sanctions

As Syria is seen as public enemy number one with regard to Iraq, I am reminded of a time 25 years ago when President Nixon spread the Vietnam War into Cambodia.  Is Syria the 2005 version of Cambodia?

Syria was back in the news of April 2007 when Speaker Pelosi and some Republicans traveled there and actaully met with President Assad. While the Iraqi Study Group would be pleased that their recommendations are starting to be follow, President Bush was very critical of Pelosi. Yet, in May Secretary Rice met with the Syrian foreign minister.

Syria only came back into the headlines in October 2008, when the US attacked a target inside Syria. Iraqi police report that nine consturtion workers were killed and 19 others wounded near the Iraqi-Syrian border.

Syria in March 2009 was in tghe news due to a possible diplomatic breakthrough. Relations have not existed since 2005.

Libya hit the headlines in the week before Christmas, as the U.S. and UK announced that the north African country would give up any WMD and WMD programs and that sanctions might soon be lifted.  Quiet negotiations had been going on for months.  Libya has been led by Col. Qaddafi for over 25 years.  In the 1980s the tit-for-tat Reagan-Qaddafi battle resulted in a U.S. bomb killing 36 people at the home of the Libyan leader, and killing his daughter.  Then, in 1988, Pam Am 103 was blown up over Lockerbie Scotland, killing 259, mostly Americans.   

One wonders if Iraq would be impacted by the horrific March 11, 2004 attacks on Madrid trains, killing over 200 and wounding over 1400.  Can we determine that al Qaeda was likely responsible? Will the Socialist victory in Spain lead to the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq?  To what extent is the attack, if al Qaeda, a response the Spanish government's strong support of war one year ago?

In late March 19 were killed in the first suicide attacks in Uzbekistan, in central Asia.

After Yasir Arafat died in November 2004, the U.S. seemed ready to re-focus on Israeli-Palestinian issues. 

On news from North Korea, news from back in April, 2004 included the dire report from the U.S. that North Korea had not "a couple" of nuclear weapons but up to 8.

On Feb.10 of 2005 North Korea officially announced for the first time that it did indeed have nuclear weapons. The U.S. hoped for multi-party talks, and did not want bi-lateral negotiations. Commented the New York Times lead editorial of February 10, "...the Bush administration put North Korea on a diplomatic back burner as it followed its obsession with Iraq.  The ideas of listing North Koreas as one of three partners in an axis of evil and then proceeding to invade the partner that was furthest away form a nuclear weapons program was no way to persuade e North Korea to give up its nuclear deterrent." 

The news of early May 2005 on North Korea was more ominous.  U.S. intelligence was suggested that the Communist country was planning a nuclear test, having declared itself a nuclear site earlier in the year.

In December 2005, one commentator looked in North Korea and Iran push for nukes after the US invaded Iraq, who had no nuclear threat.  "The overthrow of Saddam Hussein may well have been the factor that pushed the Iranian government...It had been clear to all that North Koreas had been spared attack because of its possession of the bomb while Saddam was know not to have succeeded in building one.  So countries may have decided to take out their own insurance policy."  With Israel feeling threatened by Iran and beefing up its security, "The Iraq war may have set off a new nuclear arms race." 

After warning that is was about to test a nuclear weapons, North Korea did test an underground nuclear weapon on October 8, 2006. The move was widely condemned throughout the world, even by ally China. Would China cut off the economy of its ally, which it had the power to do?

UN sanctions were passed in about one week, "the toughest action since the Korean War" which ended in 1953. The most debated clause was allowing all countries to inspect cargo to detect illicit weapons. Japan seemed determined to enforce strictly; China less so.

In the North Korea debate, Iraq came up, as former Hawkish Democratic Senator Sam Nunn was quoted on the Times front page: "We started at the wrong end of the 'axis of evil.' We started with the least dangerous of the countries, Iraq, and we knew it at the time. And now we have to deal with that."

The big North Korea news of early 2007 was that a tentative agreement had been reached in six party talks. The Communist country would get $400 million in fuel oil, economic aid and military assistance, in return for "the North's starting to disable its nuclear facilities and allow nuclear inspectors back into the county." The agreement does not force North Korea to rid itself of its new nuclear weapons.

The lead Times editorial (2/14/07) welcomes the news but blames Bush for allowing it to take so long. "Mr Bush could probably have gotten this deal years ago, except that he decided he didn't have to talk to anyone he didn't like."

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton criticized the agreement because he feels North Korea cannot be trusted.

North Korea was connected to Iraq and to Iran at the end of February, 2007. The US admitted uncertainty on North Korea's uranium effort. The accusations made in 2002 involved aluminum tubes, at the same time similar nuclear accusations were being made toward Iraq. Now doubts are being admitted about this separate Korean effort. The negotiating strategy would have been different, and perhaps the US would have negotiated so that Korea never did test nuclear weapons. Bolton says there was consensus, even in the State Department. But David Kay, nuclear expert who hunted for Saddam's WMD, feels that the accusation were much further "than the evidence indicated it should go." They made assumptions that were only guesses, Kay feels. One wonders if the US is making similar exaggerated assumptions of Iran in 2007. The Korean test was plutonium based, not uranium based.

"Another Intelligence Twist", editorialized the Washington Post. From the New York Times, the lead editorial is "A Suddenly Convenient Truth". Though Pakistan did sell 20 centrifuges to North Korea, the "problem is" that this information was "spun" into "an industrial scale enrichment program and then used...as an excuse to scuttle a Clinton-era deal to close down the North's plutonium-based weapons program. Four years later, the North set off that [plutonium] test."

"The Powell Rule", tries to avoid the humiliation of Powell in February 2003 when he spoke before the UN. Analysts must now "show their work" which led to their conclusions.

April 2007 brought Korea back to the front pages with the secret revealed that Ethiopia was allowed to purchase spare parts for weapons. This was after 2005 sanctions had begun. The US allowed this shipment because Ethiopia was fighting Islamic radicals and helping the US in Somalia. It is not the first time an exception was made. The US claimed that since the shipment was not inspected they didn't know for certain that it involved military goods and thus violated a UN resolution.

In early September 2007, the US announced it had a tentative deal with North Korea to give up its nuclear program. Details and further discussions would follow. North Korea would get a deal on energy. The progress with Iran was less certain; see many more details on Iran. In November US experts started taking down North Korea nuclear facilities. John Bolton, former US ambassador to the UN, feels North Korea is already violating its pledge from February. The hawk is now critical of the administration.

In 2008, North Korea was mostly outside of the news media's attention.

In the summer of 2009, Bill Clinton went to North Korea to secure the release of two American journalists.

For details/history on North Korea, see "Future" pre-war FAQ section.

Outside of the Iranian and North Korea issue, in March 2005 tensions between the US and Venezuela heated up.  The US is not fond of the Leftist leader, who makes negative comments toward the US.  Some think the US supported the coup the temporarily put him out of power a few years ago. Venezuela is a major producer of petroleum.  

In the greater "war on terrorism" Al Qaeda attacks on Australians in Bali and Spanish in Madrid was followed by the horrific attacks in London on July 7, 2005.  Four bombings on the tube and a bus during the morning rush hour resulted in 52 deaths and about 700 injuries.  

President Bush was in Scotland at the time for the G8 summit on global warming and aid to Africa.  Tony Blair returned from the summit to London to speak forcefully about the attacks.  Australia, Spain, and UK were all strong allies in the Iraq War.

These London attacks reminded us of the deadliest al Qaeda-related attacks on civilians since 9/11.  

Not included in the above chart are bombings in Riyadh, Casablanca, and Istanbul. The London bombings were the worst attacks in Britain since World War II.  A group taking credit is the Secret Al Qaeda Jihad Organization in Europe and claims they were to avenge British involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. Former Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been warning the west for years about such attacks.  He sees the pattern will before 9/11 and thus feels the attackers just look for an excuse.

We learned about a week after the bombings that they were not only born in the UK (of Pakistani descent) and all of them were suicide bombers.  Their connections outside the UK were still being investigated, including early talk of an Egyptian connection. With the exception of 9/11, suicide attacks in the west are unheard of.  

To what extent is the Iraq war connected to the London attacks of July 2005?  Tony Blair and George Bush feel that there is no connection.  Bush points to "they hate our freedoms" and "Al Qaeda was around before 9/11."  After nearly two weeks, opposition in the UK began to make the argument for a connection.  A British think tank Chatham House (formerly the Royal Institute of International Affairs) released a study on July 18 concluding that both the war and the close alliance with the US had a part in the bombings.  In denying a link, the Times reports, "the government seems sharply at odds with the advice given by its own security services."  

Blair's spokesman emphasized that Al Qaeda was a threat before the Iraq and Afghan Wars. Jack Straw added, "I'm astonished Chatham House is now saying that we should not have stood shoulder to shoulder with our long-standing allies." A survey in the UK shows that 2/3 of Brits think that there is a link between the attacks and the Iraq War. Sadly, 6% of British Muslims believe the terror bombings are justified.

Opinion reacting to the London bombings came in waves in mid-July.  From Richard Cohen of the Washington Post came concern that the alleged bombers were not smuggled into the country from the Islamic word.  "Two had infant children.  None...fit a profile.  Now, however, they do:  the European Muslim."

Part of the Iraq war fallout a terrorist linked group in Britain. In mid-2007 terrorists failed in attacks in London and Glasgow. Six months later investigators concluded that these were the first link to an attack by al Qaeda in Mesopotamia outside of the Middle East.

It took until September for Al Qaeda and al-Zawahiri to officially claim responsibility.  The oldest of the four bombers (age 30) said in a video, "Until we feel security, you will be our target.  Until you stop the bombing, gassing, imprisonment and torture of my people, we will not stop this fight....the blessed London battle...came as a slap to the face of the tyrannical, crusader British arrogance.  It's a sip from the glass that Muslim have been drinking from." 

Does Bin Laden poll higher than President Bush?  Trends in July 2005 were positive, as confidence in bin Laden has gone down in most Muslim countries, like Indonesia, Turkey, and Morocco.  They have been hit by terrorist bombings.

However, his standing went up in Pakistan and Jordan, both over 50%.  Adds Howard Kurtz in his Washington Post commentary, Pakistan "is supposed to be our ally in the war on terror...This is hard for me to process.  I understand the way anti-American sentiment gets whipped up, Muslim grievances toward the west, animosity toward Israel and the rest.  But I've always thought, perhaps naively, that most people in these communities were not cheering for indiscriminate killing by terrorists."  

A strange rumor in the fall of 2005 had bin Laden dying in Pakistan of typhoid fever.

Just a few weeks after the London bombing came the bombings in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el Sheik, with about 80 people killed and over 100 wounded. Many were foreign tourists.  The attacks came on July 22, the day the trail was to begin for another Egyptian bombing attack.  It was the most deadly attack in Egypt in at least 10 years. 

Other news of late July 2005 was the US being evicted from a key military base in Uzbekistan.  It is the hub of Afghan operations and an easy land route.  Officials gave the US 180 days to leave Authorities appeared upset over a UN operation to help Uzbek refugees who had left during the massacre of civilians by government troops a few months ago. 

Bali bombings occurred again in late September of 2005.  Three suicide bombers killed 22 and injured about 90.  

Amman, Jordan was the November, 2005 target outside Iraq.  Jordan, an ally of the US in the war in Iraq, was the site of three simultaneous suicide bombings in its capital.  At least 53 died and 300 were injured at attacks on three western hotels.  

The three hotels were the Grand Hyatt, Radisson, and Days Inn.  We are reminded that Zarqawi was sentenced to death in 2004 in absentia by a Jordanian military court for his role in killing an American diplomat in 2002. The U.S. has a $25 million reward for this terrorist. Just a few days after the attacks, a woman confessed on Jordanian TV.  She and her husband were suicide bombers in one of the hotels, but her explosives did the function.  This attack was the worst terrorist attack in Jordanian history and huge street protests followed.  See also "PS FAQ Iraq Violence 2005" 

Richard Clarke's new novel of 2005 is about a scary future in the middle east.  In an interview in late October, he suggested that all of Iran's goals for Iraq have been met:  Saddam, enemy in the 1980s war, is out of power; Shiites have more power; and the government is more friendly with Iran.

Reaction to bin Laden came from White House spokesman McClellan:  "We are taking the fight to the enemy, we are working to advance freedom and democracy, to defeat their evil ideology."

Bin Laden's second in command, al-Zawahri, released a tape in January 2007, taunting President Bush: "Aren't you aware that the dogs of Iraq are pining for your troops's dead bodes. So send your entire Army to be annihilated at the hands of the holy warriors to free to world from your evil because Iraq, land of the caliphate and jihad, is able to buy 10 armies like yours, with God's help and power.'

In a February tape, al-Zawahri claims that Bush is "repeating the lie, which he became addicted to, that he is winning" in Iraq. Bush was labeled as a gambler.

Bin Laden has used video and audio tapes since 9/11.  The 13 months without word was by far the longest.  Once in 2003 and 2004 we didn't hear from him for four months at a time.  Since April 2002, there have been only two audio tapes, the last in October 2004. 

A new bin Laden tape surfaced in late April, which was followed within days with a triple attack of an Egyptian resort, near the border with Israel. Three bombs killed at least 23 and injured more than 60.  

Another bin Laden audio tape in October 2007 called for the Iraqi insurgency to unite and avoid divisive "extremism."

The December bin Laden tape warned of plots being "hatched by the Zionist-Crusader alliance" to "steal the furit of blessed Jihad" in Iraq. He is critical of Sunnis allying with the US as part of Awakening Councils. "Our duty is to foil these dangerous schemes."

Bush declassified part of a document in late May 2007, the was purported to show a link to Iraq. He asked Zarqawi, later killed in June 2006, to set up a cell. The "jihad in Iraq" had as its goal to "expel the Americans." One member of the Sept. 11 commission is concerned about cherry-picking intel. Adds Tim Roemer, "the president is gravely mistaken when he claims that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror."

A man deemed a senior al Qaeda commander was killed in Pakistan by a US missile in January 2008. Abu Laith al-Libi, a Libyan, was probably killed by a pilot less predator missile. The Pentagon denied it fired the missile and the CIA refused to comment. Commented one analyst, "His death is a blow to Al Qaeda the organization but not Al Qaeda the movement."

Back in July 2006, after Israel bombed and invaded Lebanon, tensions rose again. To some extent Hezbollah was looked upon favorably throughout some areas of the Mid East.

As the genocide in Darfur continued through the summer and fall of 2006, commentators feel that the US is "hampered" in Iraq and thus less likely to use military force against the Sudanese government.

In the fall of 2006, Tony Blair feels that the threat from homegrown terrorism in Britain would last "a generation" and that the UK was keeping 1600 suspects under surveillance.

Somalia was back in the news in January 2007, with a US attack on suspected al-Qaeda leaders and/or elements. It was not clear at first if anyone was killed or whether civilians were killed. Some of the suspects were supposedly part of the embassy bombings of the late 1990s. The Islamic government had been overthrown with the help of Ethiopia. The US had at least 1400 forces in Somalia, reported Ted Koppel.

Algeria was hit in April 2007, probably by Al Qaeda. Explosions in the capital Algeirs rocked the former French colony of north Africa, killing at least 33 and injuring over 200. Algeria was hit again in mid-December, with twin car bombs killing 26-60 near the UN offices in Algiers. It was the worst attack in Algeria in more than a decade. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb aimed the attack at "the Crusaders and their agents, the slaves of American and the sons of France."

US had a secret order to raid Al Qaeda in many countries, reported the front page of the Times in mid-November, 2008. 15-20 nations have been authorized to be hit since 2004. The order was signed by Rumsfeld and approved by Bush.

The horrific Mumbai, India attacks of November, 2008, seemed to be conducted by Pakistanis, though it was not immediately clear if they were supported by the Pakistani government. Al Qaeda did not take credit for these suicide attacks, which killed about 200.

The Times editorializes about "The Pakistan Connection" in December 6. The Pakistani group Lashkar-e-Taiba seems to be involved. They are "a former proxy" of Pakistan's "powerful intelligence service" which continues to operate. "Any act of terrorism is horrifying, but the potential aftermath of this one is even more so" due to the nuclear weapons both countries pocess "India has so far shown extraordinary restraint" but the paper is still hoping that President Asif Ali Zardar of Pakistan and other military leaders will offer a "forceful public repudiation of the militant groups." A few days later, one leader in Pakistan was put under house arrest.

How should we deal with the Muslim world? Engaging the Muslim World is by Juan Cole of University of Michigan. Cole discussed his book with Jerome McDonald on Chicago Public radio on 4/8/2009.

In February Kyrgyzstan ordered closed a valuable US base near Afghanistan, perhaps under pressure from Russia. By June of 2009, they agreed to keep the base open. The US agreed to pay higher "rent". It is a key trasnit and refueling hub.

The Christmas Bomber was the top story of the last week of 2009. A Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Detroit was attempted to be blown up by a Nigerian man, Umar Farouk Abdulmatallab, who grew up attending the best schools in West Africa. He had studied engineering in Britain from 2005-2008, and visited Houston in 2008. His training in Yemen (see special Times section) was in 2009 and perhaps earlier, too. Abdulmatallab's father, a wealthy Nigerian banker, had warned the US embassy in Nigeria of his son's radicalization, he bought his one way ticket with cash, and checked no luggage. His visa was revoked by Britain, but he was still allowed to keep his US visa. The 23 year old smuggled explosives onto the plane, taped to his leg or underwear, and nearly blew up the plane.

If Afghanistan and Pakistan become unsafe for al Qaeda, could Yemen fill that role? Maybe they are already. About half of the 200 Gitmo detainees left are Yemeni. See much more on Gitmo/Torture. The US has commandoes in Yemen and is spending $70 million over 18 months to train and equip Yemeni forces. CIA costs would be clasified. The US launched drone attacks in Yemen this year, likely sometimes killing civilians. The largest airstrikes were Dec. 17 and Dec. 24, with as many as 60 killed. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which operates in Yemen, took credit for the attempted attack on Christmas day, which they claimed was in retaliation against al Qaeda leaders and training camps in Yemen.

At this point, the government of Yemen, led by President Saleh, is an ally of the US. The government welcomed those fighters returning from Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Yemen port of Aden was the site of one of the worst pre-9/11 attack on the US by al Qaeda. The USS Cole, a destroyer was attacked by a suicide boat, killing 17 US sailors.

Radical clerics use the internet to spread their ideas and to attract followers. A radical Yemeni cleric, born in the US, was tied to Nidal Malik Hasan, the alleged Fort Hood killer. He was also tied to Abdulmatallab. "Internet Imams" yield increasing influence. They probably draw justification to those leaning toward radical acts rather than recruit pro-US men. For example, Hasan wrote 21 emails to Anwar al-Awlaki, (at right) who responded only twice. Another sheikh from Kuwait combines politics with martyrdom talk. As Obama says "'Yes, we can', I too have a slogan...'Happiness is the day of my martyrdom.'". Another cleric, from Libya, Abu Yahya al-Libi, escaped prison from Bagram in Afghanistan. He claims that violence is not only permissible but a religious obligation.

Thomas Friedman examines Hasan in a late November column. Is he just another angry jihadist spurred to action by "the narrative" that American has declared war on Islam? This grand plan, by "American-Crusader-Zionists" is to keep Muslims down. This narrative continues, Friedman continues, despite US actions in favor of Muslims in countries such as Bosnia, Darfur, Kuwait, and earthquake or tsunami victims in Pakistan and Indonesia. "Although most of the Muslims being killed today are being killed by jihadist suicide bombers in Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan and Indonesia, you'd never know it from listening to their world...This narrative suits Arab governments, where the US and Israel are to blame for all of their problems. It allows these governments "to deflect onto America all of their people's grievances over why their countries are falling behind."

Awlaki continued in the news in early February. The American-born cleric or "internet Imam" from New Mexico, 38, left the US in 2002. He was then imprisoned for 18 months in Yemen. He now admitts that he met with the Christmas bomber but denied any role in the attack. "I support what he did, as America supports Israel's killing of Palestinians, and its killing of civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq." Awlaki also had contacts with three of the 9/11 hijackers in San Diego and Virginia. The Times reports that "his eloquent defenses of violent jihad in sermons and on the Internet are widely believed to have radicalized many young Muslims." He does not claim to be a member of al Qaeda.

In late January Osama Bin Laden hailed the Christmans (or underpants) bomber. The statement, his first audio tape in four months, was "from Osama to Obama." OBL praised the attempt, calling it an heroic attempt, but did not take credit for it. More attacks were coming, the al Qaeda leader warned, because of US support of Israel against Palestinians.

How did the Christmas bomber get on the plane?
-- Back in August the NSA intercepted Al Qaeda in Yemen leaders talking of a plot involving a Nigerian man.
-- The US also knew there was talk of an attack around Christmas.
-- Abdulmatallab's father met with US embassy officials from several agencies, including the CIA. His father said he felt eseentially ignored.
--Britain revoked his visa but the US did not.
--The ticket was bought with cash.
--He not only bought a one way ticket, but checked no luggage.

Clearly, no dots were connected. Agencies were not sharing with eachother. A few days later, The National Countertorrism Center (NCTC) decided there was not enough information to move him from a list of 550,000 to the small extra airport security list. At 9/11, once major problem was that agencies did not share information with eachoterh. In defense of the US, one analyst put it this way. "You had a young man who was becoming increasingly pious and was turning his back on this family's wealthy lifestyle. That alone makes him neither St. Francis nor a deadeyed killer."

"Why didn't they see it?" asked the lead Times editorial on January 2. Much improvement is urgently needed. "Failure to connect the dots" was supposed to be corrected after 9/11 and was a top concern of the 9/11 Commission, grudgingly appointed by President Bush. "Either the NCTC didn't get all of the information it was supposed" to, or it "utterly failed to do its job, which is to correleate data so any pattern emerges...Some analyst should have punched 'Nigarian, Abdulmautallab, Yemen, visa, plot' into the system."

Counterterrorism chief Brennan defended the fact that the bomber was able to get on the plane. "There was no smoking gun piece of intelligence out there that said he was a terrorist." Before 9/11, the hijackers took flying lessons in the US, but told their teacher they didn't need to learn how to land a plane. After a few days, he was indicted and could face life in prison. Will he be prosecuted in civil or military court? Richard Reid, the "shoe-bomber" was tried in civilian court but Jose Padilla and Ali al-Marri in military court. 30 hours after his arrest he stopped talking and asked to see a lawyer. It was not clear if he was read his Miranda rights.

Abdulmatallab was not close with his wealthy father. John Walker Lindh, "the American Taliban", Osama bin Laden, and his chief deputy Ayman al-Zawahir, are also well educated sons of wealthy fathers.

Reaction to the Christmas bomber trained in Yemen came from President Obama, the Yemeni government, US politicians, and of course, the US media. In its "Now Yemen" editorial, the New York Times sees a bit of good news. The US has been "paying close attention" to Yemen in recent months. The government there is corrupt and repressive but President Saleh (at left) "seems to want to cooperate--so long as Washington keeps a low profile." This descriptions sound to me like Pakistan at the time of 9/11. But, the paper continues, Yemen is "foundering in so many ways that it may be on the verge of collapse," as Somalia is just to its south (see map above).

Obama admitted that there was enought information to keep him off the plane but that intelligence agencies "failed to connect the dots" rather than a failure to collect intel. "We have to do better and we will do better," the President added. "We dodged a bullet, but just barely."

Yemen's problems are economic, political, and social. It is the poorest Arab country in the world. 70% of income comes from oil, which is expected to run out in just seven years. Corruption is rampant. The Presidents family members hold high level positions, like a "family corporation." The prison system breeds jihadists. The government had little control over its territory and is battling a war in the north, with rebels supported by Iran, and secessionists across the south. Al Qaeda flourishes best in large, lawless, tribal areas. Unemployment is 40% and the young population will double by 2035. It will likely soon run out of oil, its major export, and water. "If these problems are not dealt with, there can be no hope of defeating Al Qaeda." The US will double security aid to Yemen in 2010.

Yemen is the ancestral homeland of the bin Laden family. The al Qaeda there and from Saudi Arabia have merged into "Al Qaeda in the Arabina Peninsula". 23 al Qaeda suspects escaped from prison in 2006, though nearly all were eventually recaptured.

The US and Britain closed their embassies for a few days in early 2010. Obama planned to addrees the nation during the second week of January. He was very upset with the breakdown.

Somalia is a land of little if any central govermnent since 1991 and many pirates off the coast. The Somali Shabab rebels promised to send their fighters to Yemen for Jihad.

Smaller attacks can be more deadly, al Qaeda may have learned. Back on 9/11, I noticed that it took 19 hijackers, all coordinated, to live in the US and become pilots. If one had been discovered, the plot could have been foiled. The 19 killed about 3000 Americans, about 160 per hijacker. At Christmas, only one man appears to be directly involved, thus the plot was much easier to hide. He didn't need to live in the US or learn how to fly. He could have killed about 300 people on the crowded plane, nearly double the 9/11 attacks per hijacker. Which would spread more fear and terror, one 9/11 attack, of 10 Christmas-type attacks? These are scary questions.

There is an increase in Al Qaeda leaders killed in the border region of AfPak. As of January, more have been killed in the past year than in the previous three years. Thus, Al Qaeda is turning to its affiliate cells.

Full body scans would be implemented in Amsterdam in 2010. Would US airports follow suits? Would Americans be willing to have these personal scans taken?

14 nations were put on a new watch list in early January. Anyone flying from these countries to the US or originally from one of the countries would be searched more thoroughly. There was debate as to whether this was the best approach. "It is unfair", said a Nigeria cabinet member, "to descriminate against 150 million people because of the behavior one one person." Will moderate populations be alienated? Other nations include Syria, Sudan, Cuba, Yemen, and others.

The Christmas bomber was cooperating. At first he was not read his rights. What he said at that point can not be used in court but the US may have gotten useful intelligence. Then after being offered a lawyer, he stopped talking. The Supreme Court has ruled than even military detainees have a right to lawyers to determine habeas corpus. This was similar to how the infamous shoe bomber, Richard Reid, was treated by US authorities under President Bush. He was eventually tried in a US court. A few weeks later, the FBI arranged to fly his family to the US from Nigeria, to urge him to cooperate, and he did so.

The New York City Subway Bomber pleaded guilty in US District court in Brooklyn in February, 2010. Najibullah Zazi was an Afghan immigrant who hoped to be a martyr. He had been under government surveillance before his arrest.