What is the violence and insurgency in 2005 and 2006?

For Summer/Fall 2006 Updates at "Post-Zarqawi Violence" at
PZViolenceJune06.htm

Also see "Why are Americans and Iraqis being killed?"--2004  
and see "Deaths" FAQ section.

On Iraqi election day of January 30, 2005, nine suicide bombers made attacks in Baghdad.  Amazingly, only 45 Iraqis were killed in these attacks.  One predicts that disgruntled Sunnis, Zarqawi, and others will continue their attacks in February, though there was a relative lull for a few days

As predicted, the violence picked up again less than a week after the elections.  Three Americans were killed and at least 29 Iraqis in a string of attacks on February 4.

Only in October 2004 was the group established, "Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia (Iraq)."

See Baghdad and Chicago compared, noting the Baghdad is 4 times as densely populated as Chicago, even without nearly as many high rise buildings.

The Feb. 4 Tribune article was entitled, "Gung-ho war quip puts heat on general." Marine General Mattis said publicly, "It's fun to shoot some people."  "You know, guys like that [who slap Afghan women] ain't got no manhood left anyway.  So it's a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them."  He added, "Actually, it's a lot of fun to fight.  You know, it's a hell of a hoot.  It's fun to shoot some people. I'll be right upfront with you, I like brawling. 

A Marine statement in response lacked an apology:  "I have counseled him concerning his remarks, and he agreed he should have chosen his words more carefully...While I understand that some people may take issue with the comments...I also know he intended to reflect the unfortunate and harsh realities of war."  Also see "Troops" for more on this story. 

February 7, 2005 was the worst day since the January 30 elections, with over two dozen people killed in nearly 30 wounded.  In a six day period, at least 108 people were killed. This would lead to about 5200 deaths per year, at the same rate. 168 were killed in 8 days, making the 5200 estimate already obsolete.  They would not give an exact number. In the 20 days from Feb. 7-27, 212 were killed, which is about 10 every day.  The Washington Post tries to put this post-election violence in perspective by stating the obvious:: "The violence suggests that the election, despite a larger-than-expected turnout, has not slowed a grinding insurgency."   Also see "Deaths" FAQ.

Before the horrible Hilla bombing of late February, US officials admitted that over 1300 Iraqi security officers had been killed in the past 18 months.  

Other morbid statistics include the period of Feb. 2-12 seeing hundreds injured in various attacks and bombings.  Those killed were at least 20 most of those days.  Five dead Americans in one day in late February made it the worst 24-hour period in weeks.

The kidnapping of Americans was rarely published by the US government, but five US civilians were alleged to be kidnapped in February.  This was not covered by the mainstream US press.

Fallujah (for details see pre-election violence FAQ) started trying to rebuild in February 2005, but progress was slow.  Col. Michael A Shupp, commander of the 1st Marine Regiment, said, "The word on the street is that the residents don't want the insurgents in their town.  They only brought death and destruction."  

One of the goals of the fall 2004 Fallujah US offensive was to make the city safe for elections in January and to revenge the killings and hangings of "The Fallujah Four" from March 2004. The goal of safety for elections was not achieved.  Some insurgents remain in Fallujah, though Col. Shupp labeled it the safest city in Anbar province.  Of the 250,000 Fallujans, about 60,000 have returned.  Commented one resident, "We're all very happy...We're relaxed.  The Americans protect us.  We feel safe."  He also worried about help rebuilding his house, burned during the US offensive:  "What about fixing the town?  We need to fix the city."  Iraqis are urged to submit claims for damage.

This story was updated and mid-March by Pentagon officials who said that about 1/3 have returned.  Of these 75,000-90,000 residents, only 25% have electricity.  Unemployment is about 50%.

A story about "vital signs" of "a ruined Falluja" growing stronger was a lengthy front-page Times story of late March.  The Army upped those with electricity  to 33% and violence has been rare.  A school's head describes that "things are almost back to normal here."  However, contractors have been killed and some refuse to work there.  Safety "has come at a high price.  To enter Falluja, residents must wait about four hours to get through the grid of military checkpoints, and there are strict night curfews.  That has stunted the renascent economy and the reconstruction effort  It has also frustrated the residents, who are still coming to grips with their shatter streets and houses.  Says one resident, "Falluja is safe.  But it is safe like a prison."  The power vacuum leads to a lack of decisions because there are no police stations, no mayor, and no city counsel.  

Residents have received a 20% payment for their damage.  $100 million of the $400 million has been allocated.  "It is not clear when or whether the remaining 4/5 of the money will appear."  Complains one resident, "When you are insulted, it is not enough to get money.  But money is better than nothing.  We hope the government will fulfill the rest of its obligations to us."

Fallujah in the summer of 2005 was a Times report with mostly bad but some good news. The front-page story, "8 Months After US-Led Siege, Insurgents Rise Again in Falluja," the "police state" should be the safest city in the country." Giving perspective to the siege, the paper reports, "But the insurgency is rising from the rubble nevertheless...after the American military" killed about 1500 Iraqis "in a costly invasion that fanned anti-American passions across Iraq and the Arab world."  Four suicide bombs exploded in recent weeks, one killing six Americans, including four women.  Members of the city council have resigned, likely due to threats. The "humiliation of occupation" is setting in even for those residents who favored the US offensive on their city.  

One resident complained that "They've only given us [some] of the reconstruction money" but the people are being "educated to vote" and are politically engaged."  The report comments on potentially vicious cycle which is not unique to Fallujah:  "As the level of violence has increased [in Fallujah], marines and Iraqi solders are stepping up patrols and house raids.  This is further alienating residents." 

In October and November of 2005 repeated stories appeared in London's Independent quoting numerous eyewitnesses that US forces used white phosphorus (WP) on Fallujah during the previous November battle.  At first the US denied any use.  Our Ambassador to Britain said, "US forces do not use napalm or white phosphorus as weapons."  He later had to remain silent when the US military contradicted him.

The Pentagon said it used WP "in a shake and bake mission." Then, US authorities countered that the munitions were only used "to light the sky" and not on civilians. Later, that they were "only used against insurgents."  However, I recall clearly that before the Fallujah offensive, the US made numerous public warning that civilians should leave.  Of the tens of thousands who did not leave, were they considered to somehow be legitimate targets or aiding insurgents?  The British Independent calls this story "The Big White Lie" 

There is disagreement as to whether "white phosphorus" should be labeled as a chemical weapon. One expert on NPR called it an incendiary weapon not a chemical weapon. WP has chemical properties. If not a chemical weapon, it certainly served to intimidate Iraqis who had known their frequent use during the Saddam days. The use of WP, an incendiary weapon, can burn a person down to the bone. 

After long denials by the Pentagon, they finally admitted that US forces used napalm.  The new concoction was technically not called napalm, but had the same qualities as the popular Vietnam-era weapon.

Is WP illegal?  WP and napalm against civilians are prohibited.  However, the US is not a signatory of the 1980 Convention on such weapons. A convention includes the US as a party, but not for the incendiary arms protocol. 

The protocol "forbids using incendiary weapons against civilians" and forbids their use "against military target in concentration of civilians, except when the targets are clearly separated from civilians and 'all feasible precautions' are taken to avoid civilians casualties," reports the Times on November 17.  Some WP was used in World War II against Germany and others used by the US in Vietnam.  

"Fallujah, the Hidden Massacre," was the title of a Italian TV documentary which Al-Jazeera is broadcasting, with horrific images of burned victims."  The NPR expert from globalsecurity.org thinks the documentary does not prove the use of WP and is exaggerated. The Iraq government is investigating the allegations. 
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article327543.ece

After a few weeks of small stories in US papers, the New York Times picked up the story on November 29 with an editorial, "Shake and Bake", decrying the use of white phosphorus.  Two main arguments are that its use hurts our reputation in the world and puts doubts into our assurances of avoiding civilians casualties. 

In other violence outside of Fallujah, the targeting of Shiites continued after the election.  On the holiest day for Shiites, Ashoura, a mosque was bombed and at least 14 died.  Three mosques were attacked in one day with over 50 killed, a new "most bloody day" since Dec. 15 elections.   Eight suicide bombs exploded in just one day. The two days of violence left  80 dead.   In 2004 180 people died in violence surrounding Ashoura. One of these suicide bombers rode a bicycle, another boarded a bus, some were disguised in black robes worn by religious pilgrims, and others walked into their targets

Students of middle east or Islamic history will recall that Ashoura commemorates the death of Imam Hussein (Husayn) near Karbala (now Iraq).  Martyred in 680CE, he was fighting against troops loyal to the Umayyad caliphate. The Shiite-Sunni schism comes from this battle, because Hussein was descended from Muhammad and Sunnis feel that the leader need not be related to the prophet.  Hussein was his grandson. 

Post-election, how many insurgents are there?  Who are they?  For months in early 2005 Donald Rumsfeld refused to even estimate a number.   By mid-March Pentagon leaders estimated 12,000-20,000 hard-core insurgents.  These numbers are not a significant change from previous estimates.  Attacks after the elections are 60 per day up from 25 last year.  By mid-March they were about 40-50 attacks/day, "far fewer than in the weeks before the elections but roughly the same number as a year ago," according to the Times article by Eric Schmitt. Richard Meyers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, put a spin on and updated those numbers in mid-March, stating that the number of attacks in Sunni areas had dropped sharply over the last four months, "a development that he called evidence that the insurgency was weakening in one of the most violent areas of the country...'They're way down on their attempts, and even more on their effectiveness.'"  

Meyers told Congress after the elections that al Qaeda and Zarqawi represent "a fairly small percentage of the total number of insurgents."  Sunni Arabs are the core, especially former Baath party members.  Foreign fighters are "a small component" mostly from Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Iran. For more on insurgents see pre-election violence FAQ.

Al Qaeda's #2, al-Zawahiri, released a video in mid-June 2005.  He disparages the US concept of reform and says, "We cannot imagine any reform while our countries are occupied by the crusader forces" or "while our governments are being rule from the American embassies in our county.  He was also critical of the governments of Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.  Ironically, the same week Rice traveled to the middle east and had harsh words for Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

A US offensive was launched west of Baghdad in late February.  
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A39909-2005Feb20?language=printer

Are some insurgents coming from Syria?  Accusation of such charges multiplied in late February 2005, especially when Saddam Hussein's half brother was arrested.  Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan al-Tikriti, one of the 55 "most wanted" from the spring of 2003,  is said to have financing insurgents through Syria.  

Syria, had a worsening reputation following their alleged involvement in assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister, arrested and handed over Hassan.  These Syrian tactics are "typical", according to a Princeton expert on the Near East:  "Ever since the 1980s, Syria has played this game of being both arsonist and the fire department.  While the US praised Syria for this move, they also stressed that "there are a number of others the Syrians ought to be able to find....They're not off the hook..." Also see "Who is Next?--Syria" FAQ section.

Reports in March 2005 were that over 300 foreign fighters were held in custody, more than double since September.  It is especially difficult to monitor Shiite pilgrims who enter.  A US colonel said that those in custody came from 16 different countries. May reports were that about 90% of the insurgents were "home grown."  It seems hard to know for sure. In November we were still hearing US estimates of 10% of attacks being from foreign countries. Official numbers showed that the number imprisoned had gone from 391 in June to 465 in December. It's unclear how many had been released during that period. Most of these were from these five countries near Iraq:  Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Jordan. 

The suicide bombers are also "counted" by the insurgents.  The Post of mid-May examined an on-line list including "students of engineering and English, the son of a Moroccan restaurateur and a smattering of Europeanized Arabs."  Many were to have been from Saudi Arabia.

New US military estimates in July 2005 are that the number of insurgents are no more than 20,000, with a tiny minority coming from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Syria. 

That month Rumsfeld characterized the struggle as primarily between the Iraq people and foreigners.

What do the insurgents want?  Of course, there are many different groups and most probably want US troops to leave.  However, according  to a May 15, 2005 New York Times "Week in Review" cover story "The Mystery of the Insurgency" they don't seem to want to win the hearts and minds of the Iraqis, don't want to build international diplomacy, they have no leader, no political wing and don't try to take territory.  What else are they fighting for?  This Times analysis answers:  
--Baath Party members to restore the old regime
--Sunnis to prevent Shiite takeover
--Nationalists to drive out US
--Foreigners hoping to make Iraq part of a global religious struggle
--Those fighting for money
--Organized crime

An all out Civil War would likely hurt the Sunnis, since they are the minority.  Concluded a defense analyst about the insurgent intentions, "It clearly makes sense to the people who are doing it.  And that more than anything else tells us how little we understand the region." 

What motivates suicide bombers?  The simply answer might be, "They are just crazy" or "They are Islamic radicals."  However, a more complex picture results when one examines the evidence.  University of Chicago professor Robert Pape's new book in 2005 is "Dying to Win:  The Strategic Logic of Suicide Bombing.  Pape heads the Chicago Project on Suicide Terrorism. 

Pape analyzes every single suicide bomber who has died from 1980 to 2004.  He finds that of these 462 suicide bombers, most were secular.  Their common goal was to oust a democracy (US, Israel, India) from occupying what they see as their homeland.  The most frequent attacks in his study are the Tamil Tigers who are targeting India.  He concludes that 95% of suicide bombers in the past few decades have been motivated by ending a military occupation, usually of their homeland.

Steve Chapman and Georgie Anne Geyer focus on Pape in their mid-June columns in The Tribune.  Geyer summarizes that suicide bombers are not fanatical or unusual, religion plays a small role in their motivation, and regime change and democratization will not decrease their violence because of the stationing of US combat troops.  Pape writes, "The stationing of tens of thousands of American combat troops on the Arabian Peninsula from 1990 to 2001 probably made Al Qaeda suicide attacks against Americans...from five to 20 times more likely.  Hence the longer American troops remain in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf in general, the great the risk of the next Sept. 11."  

Geyer concludes, "If these findings are true--and they certainly ring true to me and to many who have worked in and covered the middle East --then not only are we finding it treacherous going in Iraq, but every minute we stay there, perceived as invaders in a foreign land, we are perversely creating the dangerous and effective violence against us and the middle-ground Iraqis whom we depend upon.  Odd that our leaders cannot even begin to fathom this."

Back in September,  President Bush touted the good news that Zarqawi's "#2 man" had been killed by US forces.  Some doubted the importance of this man. Known as Abu Azzam, he was an Iraqi citizen of Palestinian origin.  

What are the goals of Al Qaeda?  A July letter announced by US officials in October 2005, speaks of  a warning from Zawahiri to Zarqawi:  "The mujahadeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons and silence the fighting zeal."  The US said that the letter urged Zarqawi, according to the Times,  to "concentrate their attacks on American rather than on Iraqi civilians," while refraining from gruesome beheadings and executions.  Only a partial translation was provided and only three sentences were quoted verbatim.  

How are insurgents organized in late 2005?  President Bush spoke about this question in his November 30 speech.  Officials supplemented his comments.  Militant groups have proliferated into at least dozens of groups and are organized horizontally and are thus hard to destroy.  As the Times expressed, "It cannot be decapitated, because the insurgency, for the most part, has no head.'  Each group acts on its own with separate.  Suicide bombers appear to mostly be foreigners.  leadership Bush divided them into three groups:  
1.  disaffected Sunni Arabs or "rejectionists"
2.  former Hussein government loyalist; and
3.  foreign-born terrorist affiliated with Al Qaeda.

A different view is that of the BBC special, "Who are the insurgents?"

What are the 2006 goals of the insurgents?  As of January 2006, we have been asking this question for more than 2 1/2 years.  The answers are not consistent, depending on one's source.  One logical explanation is that most insurgents want to foment civil war by killing Shiites and want to destabilize the government by killing police recruits.  In late 2005 and early 2006 there were growing reports of a schism between Zarqawi's mostly non-Iraqi suicide bombings, linked with al Qaeda and the more nationalistic insurgents. The US hopes to take advantage of this potential schism, which was still largely anecdotal, though Sunni tribes tried and executed Qaeda members for their role in assassinating a local sheik. Then, at the sheik's funeral, another suicide bomb went off.

A Times report on the possible schism talk of invisible gang-like boundaries dividing various insurgent groups. (1/12/06)

Part of Al Qaeda's attraction is the money. After the December 2005 elections, Zarqawi condemned the main Sunni party, who urged voting. Also see post- 12/05 Iraqi Politics FAQ. His threats were generally defied by voting Sunnis. One imam was confronted and told that voting was against the Koran.  However, he seemed to hold off attacks during elections and for a few days after. 

Also in February 2005, it was first revealed to the public that the US was holding secret talks or negotiations with Sunni insurgents.  Time magazine released the story in their "Talking with the Enemy" exclusive. I had wondered for months if these types of talks were going on. However, I doubt the US has started to talk with assistants to Zarqawi. For more on negotiations, see post-12/05 election Politics.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1029862,00.html]

The headlines blared the latest violence in the morning papers of the last day of February.  A huge car bomb 60 miles south of Baghdad killed at least 136 people and injured at least 170 who were standing in lines applying for government jobs.  Hilla is a city of 500,000 built in the 11th century "from the ruins of ancient Babylon."  The Shiite city is surrounded by farms producing dates and a famous, traditional buttermilk spread.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A59240-2005Feb28?language=printer

This deadliest single bombing of the entire war, Hilla rivals the 181 killed in Karbala and Baghdad on March 2, 2004, a Najaf car bomb outside a mosque, killing 95, and the over 100 in Kurdistan on Feb. 1, 2004. The Washington Post ended its report by commenting, "Insurgents routinely target Iraqi security forces and government officials, believing them to be pawns of the US-backed government." The New York Times front page described witnesses viewing the "horrific carnage, with huge pools of blood visible on the pavement and mangled bodies being loaded onto wooden handcars.  Outside the clinic, blood could be seen splashed on a wall above a first story window." 

Other morbid attacks continued to dominate the front pages of the newspapers in early March 2005. When a Shiite imam associated with Sadr was killed,  Shiite leaders again urged their follows not to take revenge.  On March 8, 39 corpses were found by Iraqi security forces in two different sites. Some had been beheaded.

The bad news continued daily.  Among the worst in mid-March was an attack on Mosul which left 50 or more dead.  The death toll for the week including March 10 was about 100.  

How do insurgents use the media?  How are reporters treated? Zarqawi's group uses the web for its messages and to take credit for or to deny attacks.  "Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia"  denied the attacks on Hilla.  The group says its aims, according to the Times,  are "ridding Muslim lands of Westerners and reviving the 'pure' Islam of the seventh century...'One of the basic rules of our religion is not to spill a drop of Muslim blood unless it is justified, because the destruction of the world is not less an offense than that.'"  The report quotes the group's magazine as defending attacks on members of the Iraqi Army and police offers, saying they have "abandoned their religion and become mere pawns of the West" (3/13/05, "Jihadists Take Stand on Web, and Some Say It's Defensive"). 

The media is also used by the Pentagon, according to Pulitzer Prize winner Seymour Hersh (see Abu Ghraib FAQ).  He feels that the description of those opposing US forces as "rebels" or "insurgents" is misleading because "we use the word rebels, insinuating we won the war.  But we're fighting  war against people we went to war against (in the first place)--it just turned out they didn't fight the war in the same time scale we did."

Record number of journalists are also being killed.  (See Italian female shot at while trying to leave the country after being released by kidnappers.)  As of March 2005, 73 journalists have been killed.  One of the fist attacks came on Baghdad's' Palestine Hotel in April 2003 where journalists were know to be.  Commentator Antonia Zerbisias writes that "the US Army refused to release the details of its investigation.  Of course, its finding cleared the US of killing two cameramen...What I find really disturbing is how few American journalists are protesting what appears to be the Pentagon' callous disregard for getting out the truth, either by making it safer for journalist to do their jobs or by its own full disclosure of the facts of these killings."

The Palestine Hotel was part of a target list, alleged a US whistleblower in May 2008. The Pentagon knew that it was the home to many journalists.

When the total hit 76 journalists, this passed the number killed in Vietnam during 22 years of war. Most of these in Iraq have been killed by insurgent and terrorist attacks, and three were killed by the US military.  See more Vietnam comparisons.   

The first US journalist, Steven Vincent,  was killed by insurgents in early August 2005.   A Reuters sound man was killed in late August, shot by American forces, according to the Iraqi police.  

This violence of January 2006 reminds us that 61 journalists have been killed, 36 by bombings and other insurgent attacks and 14 killed by American fire.  This is according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, a New York based group. 

Journalists are being jailed by the US.  A report of December 2005 tabulates that the US ranks 6th in the world among countries jailing journalists.  China is #1 with 32 journalists, while Cuba was #2.    Four of  five journalists jailed in Iraqi are Iraqis. Commented executive director of Committee to Protect Journalists, "This is a country where we are trying to foster democracy.  Detaining people in this fashion and holding them for week and months with no charges against them--that is not a lesson in democracy." 

An award-winning Iraq journalist had his home blasted into by US troops while sleeping.  The Guardian reported on January 9, 2006 that Ali Fadhil had bullets flying into his bedroom where he was sleeping with his wife and two infants..  Dr. Fadhil is working with Guardian Films on an investigation for UK's Channel 4's into "claims that tens of millions of dollars of Iraqi funds held by the Americans and British have been misused or misappropriated."  

The troops seized video tapes.  All but one of the tapes was returned.  Fahil reported that "they rolled me on to the floor and tied my hands."  After being in custody he was released hours later. On NPR, Dr. Fatal said this was the third time his house had been invaded.  This time the US apologized to him and said they had the wrong address.  He was offered $1500 for his time in custody and for the damage to his home.   The family moved to a hotel. One of his children is still very scared and scarred. 

In mid-January 2006, 500 prisoners were released from Abu Ghraib by the US, including a Reuters cameraman, after being held for four months. 

Late that month the Committee to Protect Journalists pressed the US to release two journalists, one held in Iraq without charge for 8 months. This Reuters TV cameraman "should not have been held without charge, explanation, or due process...The military owes an explanation for this open-ended and unsubstantiated detention," said the groups Executive Director (1/24/06) in a Reuters report.

Ms. Carroll was next heard from in a Jan. 18 video tape shown on Al-Jazeera.  The captors vowed to kill her if all female Iraqi prisoners were not released in three days.  It was reported that there were only 8 Iraqi females in captivity and six were "scheduled" to be released soon.  The Iraqi Justice department called the pending releases "a routine request".  The day before she was to be executed, Carroll's mother jointed the Monitor and many others in pleading for her release. A leading Sunni politician pled for her release the following day. The Council on American-Islamic Relations flew their executive director to Iraq, the first time it has sent a delegation overseas to address a diplomatic incident. 

Carroll had an advantage as a woman, dressing with the Islamic head covering (hijab) and a long black cloak (abaya), thus moving around relatively unnoticed. 

A few days later the US released hundreds of prisoners including the majority of the women held.  The move was termed "standard" and "typical" by the Pentagon. 

Another Carroll video on February 9 had her begging to "do anything they ask, quickly" and a new deadline for her death.  Some of the new demands of the captures were not made public. 

A Feb. 14 report concluded that the US had intentionally delayed the release of some female prisoners so as to not look like they were giving in to insurgent demands.

British-Iraqi aid worker Margaret Hassan had so far been the only western woman killed by her kidnappers, in the fall of 2004.  Back in September 2004 two American engineers were kidnapped and beheaded. See "Violence 2004 FAQ"

Taking Carroll and the Christian Peacemakers off the front pages was the news of Bob Woodruff, ABC News post-Peter Jennings anchor.  He and his cameraman were badly injured near Baghdad on Jan. 29, 2006, from an IED.  This roadside bomb scattered shrapnel.  Both men were wearing body armor, helmets, and ballistic glasses.

With  head lacerations, a skull fractured, a broken shoulder, and broken ribs, Woodruff was flown to Germany, where is in serious but stable condition. That same flight carried 31 other wounded Americans, about the normal daily influx. The two journalists were standing in the hatch of an Iraqi vehicle at the time of the attacks. About two days later, Woodruff returned to the US and Walter Reed Army Medical Center.  Also on the C-17 were 30 patients evacuated. 

Woodruff was the subject of a special in February 2007. A Post reproter spoke of Woodruff being "back from the brink." "To Iraq and Back" is the new video about his trip, injury, and recovery. NPR also did a special report on him that week, interviewing him and his wife, who have written a book, In An Instant.

The former ABC anchor came back into the news in October 2007. A special Arts Section of the Times describes Woodruff injury and recovery. "You can see why," he explains, "I think every day, now, is a free day." On the right side of his head he has a plastic shell the size of a small coconut that helps protect his brain.

Kidnapping of Iraqis makes fewer headlines in late 2005 than the kidnapping of westerners.  But Iraqis are must more vulnerable, as perhaps 5000 have been kidnapped in the past 18 months.  In fact, about 30 Iraqis are kidnapped every day, as of early 2006. The average ransom is $30,000. The front-page New York Times reported in late March 2005 that "ransom is a far greater motive than intimidation."  The kidnapping of children " is a force like no other in driving from Iraq the educated professionals who are critically needed for the rebuilding of the country."

Barbers are also targeted.  Reports in mid-March 2005 were that gangs of militant Islamists are warning barbers "that is is haram--forbidden--to shave men's bears or do Western-style haircuts."  The New York Times front-page story tells that as many as 12 barbers have been killed, including five in one January day. The story describes the killings and threats as a continuation of efforts to enforce "a Taliban-style religious rule.  In Fallujah, armed mujaheddin ran an Islamic police state for several months" before the US invasion in the fall of 2004, against beardless men and "any women who dared to go out with their heads uncovered."  In southern Iraq, Shiite militants have attacked liquor stores and sometimes killed those who ignored their threats." (3/18/05). In January 2006 another barber was attacked.  He suspected it was because he was willing to serve Sunni, Shiite, and Kurd. 

Iraq forces claimed that in one bold attack they killed 85 insurgents in a camp near Baghdad in what the front page Times called "the largest guerrilla training camp to be discovered."   The front-age Tribune labeled it "a major battle and a major success" of commando units.  Americans found no bodies.  This report was later corrected, with as few as 11 Iraqis killed.  "I would not call it a major incident.", corrected a US spokesman. US helicopters gunships were responsible for most of the violence.  

This conflicted "body count" reminds one of Vietnam when exaggerated body counts led Americans to think victory was just around the corner. We were told we could always "see the light at the end of the tunnel." In the Falluja battle of November 2004, hundreds of insurgents were allegedly killed but few bodies were ever found. 

It turns out the body counts of insurgents only began in the fall of 2004.  The numbers killed, as announced by the US military, were appearing in headlines.  The Pentagon says body counts are not part of US policy. 

Questioning the use of "body counts" was author John Robb in his Times op-ed of October 15.  Robb feels that the math does not add up because the military "kills or captures 1000 to 3000 insurgents a month.  Its estimate of the insurgency, however, is a mere 12,000 to 20,000 fighters.  Something is clearly wrong.  Simple math indicates we have destroyed the insurgency several times over since it started."  Body counts became a nearly daily part of the Pentagon stories by the end of October. 

For example, the military highlighted that 700 suspected insurgents had been killed from mid-September until mid-November.  1500 detainees had been picked up.  Violence against Americans in this period did not decrease. 

On March 20, 2005 the largest attack on Americans occurred since the January elections .  A convoy was ambushed "in an unusually bold assault" (Times, 3/21/05)

In late March 2005 there was a lull in Iraq news.  For the first time I recall in many months, for the second time in a week there was no Iraq story on the front page of the New York Times or on the op-ed pages.  Perhaps this was due to the broad coverage given to the Terri Shiavo case and to the Minnesota school shootings. 

This lull was also partly due to a lack of political news and a relative lack of violence  The March 26 news was that 23 people were killed across Iraq, including three suicide car bombings.

Were the elections really a "tipping point" with less support for the insurgency and more toward the new Iraqi government?  Rumsfeld predicted a "process of tipping" in the fall of 2004 but has hedged his judgment in March.  "It's not a straight path", the Pentagon leader said.

Military analyst Anthony Cordesman believes that "there are signs of real progress, but I don't see the kind a definitive trends that would allow you to say victory is assured."  He feels tipping points are too simplistic given the many factors involved and that one is not aware until months or years after the fact.  Army Gen. George W. Casey says insurgent bombers are now more crudely assembled, a development he credits with capture of main bomb makers in recent months. Casey also said the insurgencies over the past century have lasted on average about nine years:  "It takes time to snuff out the insurgency.  And also, I think you know, most insurgencies are defeated by political means rather than necessarily by military means.  (Wash Post, 3/20/05). 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A49370-2005Mar19?language=printer

One possible tipping point could be civilians who are willing or able to fight against the insurgents.  One such report from late March was of "the first known time that private citizens are known to have related successfully".  There have been demonstrations and rallies against terrorism .  Some Shiite leaders may no longer be willing to turn the other cheek.  

Rumsfeld was in the news again in mid-March, blaming Turkey for the violence in Iraq.  It was his most "tenacious critics of the war effort" because ships off the coast of Turkey before the war were not allowed by their Parliament to help open a second front in the pending war.  Asked why there weren't more troops now, Rumsfeld said the level was set by Tommy Franks and more troops make make more targets for the US.  Before the war began in March 2003, Rumsfeld discussed in detail and then endorsed Franks' plan.

One example of politics and the insurgency being sometimes intertwined is the role played by Sheik Harith al-Dari, the subject of a front-page New York Times story of March 29.  He leads the Association of Muslim Scholars, and claims to represent 3000 mosques and taught Islamic law at Baghdad University for many years.  Viewed as "a dangerous man" by the US, his house has been repeatedly raided by US military teams.   The 64 year old cleric and tribal leader has become "a leading spokesman for Iraq' disaffected Sunni Arabs [who] would continue to view the armed resistance as legitimate until the American military offered a clear timetable for its withdrawal--a condition very unlikely to be met."  Al-Dari says, "We ask all wise men in the American nation to advise the administration to leave this country."  The detailed Times report adds that "resisting foreign occupation runs in his blood.  His grandfather...is said to have sparked the Sunni phase of the rebellion against the British in 1920 by killing a British officer near Falluja.  He jointed the rebellion, which had begun with Shiites in the south..."  

Peaceful Iraqi protestors were killed in late March 2005.  An angry crowd of about 100 off-duty security guards were protestors against wage cuts.  The protestors were also upset with their ammunition being rationed   They guard Iraqi nuclear power plants and other Science Ministry sites.  Reports were that shots were fired from the window in a seven story building, killing one and wounding three.  The Iraqi interior Minister wanted an end to protests because he thought they invited insurgent attacks on the crowds. 

In late March and early April the violence in Iraq took a back seat in the media to three stories:  Terri Shaivo's illness and death, the Pope's illness and death, and, on April 6, the news that the Iraqis had finally decided on a President and two vice-Presidents. 

In March and April there were reports of a decrease in violence.  Was this a trend? Those hopes seemed to be shattered mid and late April when a US contractor helicopter was shot down, killing six Americans and five others.  They worked for Blackwater USA security firm. Also, a US humanitarian leader was killed (see "deaths" FAQ), and violence increased, such as a car bomb at a Shiite mosque, killing about nine (at left).  Other bad news included the mysterious loss of two US fighter jets.

Then, news came of more bad news "calling into question suggestions that the tide in the war is clearly turning." (Times front-page story 4/21/05). About 60 bodies were found floating in the Tigris River and about 20 dead soldiers piled at a soccer stadium.  They had been taken from their trucks. All 80 were assumed to be victims of insurgents, the first group likely part of a mass kidnapping, according to President Talabani.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A4390-2005Apr20?language=printer

Recent mass graves started re-appearing in the spring of 2005, reminiscent of the Saddam killings.  Reports in mid-May were of dozens of bodies found, execution style.  One report suggested that official Iraqi forces may have been the perpetrators.  Others guessed that the killers were trying to foment a larger civil war between Shiites and Sunnis. Also see "Mass Graves" FAQ.

Allawi survived a 5th attempt on his life which killed two policemen. The former Prime Minister was unhurt. A leading member of his party was not so lucky.  One of the women members of Parliament was assassinated the next week.  Lame'a Abed Khadawi was the first person in the 275-seat National Assembly to be killed.  By law, one-third of its members must be women. At left, a family member holds Khadawi's ID card. NPR's Weekend Edition Scott Simon paid audio tribute to Ms. Khadawi.

Ms. Khaddouri (new media spelling) was killed in a "brazen" daylight attack at the front gate of her Baghdad home. 

Iraqi officials were killed with more regularity in April and May of 2005.  For example, in late May a top aide to the new Prime Minister was murdered, along with his driver.

Not only politicians and barbers are being targeted.  So, too, are Iraqi doctors.  About 250 have been kidnapped in the past two years. Mostly senior doctors have fled the country.  Accelerating in the spring of 2005, about 10% of doctors have either stopped practicing or fled, according to the Iraqi Medical Association. The front-page New York Times story of May 30 was entitled, "Facing Chaos, Iraqi Doctors Are Quitting."

Neither the  "sudden reduction" in violence nor the talk of "growing sophistication" are true, according to Times commentary from author and Marine colonel, Thomas Hammes (4/21/05).  In analyzing the insurgency, he writes that it was "not collapsing then and it is not resurgent now.  Insurgencies are very long struggles--in modern military history they have lasted on average 10 to 15 years, and many--Palestine, Sri Lanka and Vietnam---have gone more than a quarter century.  It is folly to predict long-term trends based on a few weeks of rebel activities.  The only way a counterinsurgency can truly be successful is to establish effective, fair government that is accepted by the people--and that takes time.  Thus the real measure of progress is the success of the Iraqis themselves in establishing a government and repairing the roads, schools, hospitals, and oil facilities that will help get the country back on its feet.  Obliviously, the critical step of that process will be providing security for Iraqi citizens."  

Hammes continues, "the establishment of a national government in Baghdad is the most obvious encouraging sign.  On the negative side...the Shiites are again insisting that all former senor Baathists be removed from the current government and that many be tried for crimes committed under Saddam Hussein."  He suggests that the US needs to do more, such as get more translators and more equipment.  Hammes concludes, "In the end, of course, the most important thing we can offer the Iraqis is our patience.  The bottom line is that counterinsurgencies take time.  And like all political process, they are complex and often ugly." 

In late April 2005 , insurgents attacks were back up to 50 or 60 per day, or about 400 attacks per week, according the Gen. Richard Myers.  Meyers linked the upsurge in violence with the inability of the Iraqis to form a new government since the January 30 elections.  See more on political developments.

The President responded, "I think he went on to say we're winning, if I recall.  But nevertheless, there are still some in Iraq who aren't happy with democracy.  They...want to go back to the old days of tyranny and darkness, torture chambers and mass graves.  I believe we're making really good progress in Iraq.  Because the Iraqi people are beginning to see the benefits of a free society.  They saw a government formed today [most of cabinet posts announced]...The more secure Iraq becomes as a result of the hard work of Iraqi security forces, the more confident the people will have in the process.  And the more isolated the terrorists will become...A free Iraq in the midst of the Middle East is an important part of spreading peace."  

The rosy view of Bush and Cheney was debated in an interesting Post piece of early June, at the end of the Baghdad offensive by US and Iraqi troops. As Cheney said in mid-June, the insurgency is "in its last throes." Few in the government or military, it turned out, agreed with this assessment, including Generals and Rumsfeld.

The violence of late April and into May resulted in 72 deaths in one day, 90 deaths in three days, 116 deaths in four days and 200 in just one week, nearly 300 in 8 days,  450 in two weeks, and 700 Iraqis killed in just the month of May.   This upsurge seemed to occur just after the new cabinet was announced, with no Sunnis yet part of the group.  11 Americans were among the dead that week, bringing the total U.S. military deaths to 1600 since the war began. One attack at a funeral killed 25 Iraqis.  More Iraqi government leaders are being targeted and assassinated. Before this larger outbreak, about 500 Iraqi police and troops had been killed in the past two months.  The "Carnage in Iraq" is described in a May 15 Washington Post editorial. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/14/AR2005051400711_pf.html

Also see "Deaths" FAQ section.

A new suicide bombing strategy involves a second bombing as those arrive to clean up for the first bombing.  An attack at a police recruiting station in Erbil left 60 dead and over 150 wounded. On May 11, for example, at least 60 were killed and 100 wounded in six suicide attacks. The Governor of the Anbar province was also captured.  

The bombings and attacks were so common in 2005, that it may be easier to visualize only some of the bigger ones in chart format.  Most of these are suicide bombings and the numbers do not include those injured, usually at least twice the number killed:

Also see "Deaths" FAQ,  especially for Americans and see PZ Violence for Post-June '06

The Kirkuk attack was near rich oil fields and is "the most politically precarious city."  It was the deadliest Kirkuk attack in post-Saddam Iraq.  The June 19 Baghdad restaurant attacks occurred the day after officials declared the US/Iraqi Baghdad offensive a success. What is misleading about this chart, for example, is that on June 20 there were a total of 5 suicide bombings in Baghdad alone.

As bombings in May, June, and July of 2005 hit record levels, we learned that insurgents are refining their bombing skills to kill more Americans and Iraqis.  Even armored vehicles are now vulnerable. The improvised explosive devices (IED) can be detonated by infrared lasers. In addition, a CIA classified assessment concludes that "Iraq may prove to be an even more effective training group for Islamic extremists than Afghanistan," (NYTimes)  because it is a real-world laboratory. This is similar to a previous CIA leader Porter Goss warning. The front page Times of July 24 spoke of insurgents growing "more violent, more resilient and more sophisticated than ever" despite reassurances from Cheney that they are on the wane.  

As the violence continues for a third year, are Americans becoming numb to the violence?  One who thinks so is the Baghdad Bureau Chief of Knight Ridder, who feels readers are numb and bored with yet another bombing report.  Reporters can't generally get into Najaf or Fallujah to report on a variety of stories.  The Baghdad chief fears Iraq could become like Afghanistan--violent but uncovered.

Amid all the violence of late April and early May came some potentially bad news for the insurgency.  First were reports that Zarqawi may be ill.  These reports were confirmed a few weeks later, we learned from multiple sources. Zarqawi had indeed been shot and injured, according to his group "Al Qaeda in Iraq."  In a tape credited to the insurgent leader, Zarqawi told bin Laden that he had been injured in an American attack.

Second bad news came reports of shoot-outs involving the deaths of two dozens insurgents.  Third came reports of seizure of computer data, possibly from the Al Qaeda group in Iraq.  The largest US offensive since the fall in Fallujah, took place for about one week in May.  Near the Syrian border, "Operation Matador" is said to have included the killing of 100 insurgents, according to the US military.  Also see "The Good News" FAQ.

On June 16 the US announced the capture of a leading insurgent, Mohammed Sharkawa, who they said was responsible for 50 bombings and 150 beheadings and assassinations.   Known as a lieutenant to Zarqawi, Sharkawa was a former Republican Guard and commanded several hundred insurgents 

After a Rice visit to Iraq, the new Shiite majority government ordered the army to stop raiding mosques, arresting clerics and "terrifying worshipers," reported the Times on its front page of May 17.  This was considered "a gesture calculated to ease tensions" with the Sunni minority. 

Also in mid-May 2005 came the sober outlook of generals.  Earlier predictions from these same leaders were that troops could start coming home in late 2005 or early 2006.  But one senior military official, quoted in the New York Times front page story, suggested that military involvement could last "'many years.'".  One official quoted was Gen. John P. Abizaid.  21 car bombings in the first 3 weeks of May matched almost the entire total for last year, 25. There had been 126 car bombings in the past 80 days.

The military emphasized the positive news that 1100 suspects had been arrested in Baghdad in the past 80 days. Said one general, "We believe in the mission that we've got...because we're in it, and if we let go of the insurgency and take our foot off its throat, then this country could fail and go back into civil war and chaos."  The generals are disappointed with the buildup of Iraqi forces.  Top US military officials, according to reports in the Times,  say the foreigners, "while small in number, play a disproportionately important role in the resistance, particularly in carrying out suicide bombings, which have sharply increased nit the last two months."

On June 23 June Rumsfeld appeared on Capital Hill with General Myers, where he appeared "under fire" and opposed any call for a pullout date.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/23/AR2005062302111_pf.html

A spring offensive had been near the Syrian border, where the AP reported that artillery shells injured several Syrians living across the border, according to townspeople. Another US offensive came in late May in Baghdad.  "Operation Lightening" was to set up check points throughout the capital to reduce the number of suicide bombings.  The US reported arrests of about 700.  At least 28 suspected insurgents were killed in the operation. Attacks continued in other parts of the country during the offensive and soon after it ended violence was bad in Baghdad.

Also see a July-September 2005 Timeline of Iraq from the American Friends Service Committee.

News from the summer of 2005 included more Sunni-Shiite killings which could be the early symptoms of civil war.  Religious leaders are assassinated and sectarianism has taken root, according to the front-page Tribune story quoting a political analyst. Interior Ministry commandos have been accused of summarily executing Sunni religious leaders, according to the Tribune/Washington Post.

Also in early July, a leading cleric for Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani was killed outside a mosque in Baghdad. A few weeks later Sistani warned of "a genocidal war."

A torture house was discovered by US forces in mid-June.  Marines found evidence that insurgents had used torture techniques as they found, according to the front-page New York Times, "a torture center equipped with electric wires, a nose, handcuffs, a 574-page jihad manual--and four beaten and shackled Iraqis.  The American military has found torture house after invading town heavily populated by insurgents--like Falluja, where the anti-insurgent assault last fall uncovered almost 20 such sites.  But rarely have they come across victims who have lived to tell the tale."  

In November 170 mostly Sunnis were found in the basement of the Interior Ministry, some of whom had obviously been tortured.  This "official: torture house inside the Interior Ministry is dominated now by Shiites.  Prime Minister Jaafari promised a thorough investigation. 

For details see "Torture 2005-06" FAQ.

In a detailed analysis of the insurgency, Barry Rosen's June 7 op-ed in the New York Times was entitled, "Fighting Blind in Iraq."  He concluded with a warning on strategy, "Those who wish to 'stay the course' in Iraq need a plausible strategy of victory in the intelligence campaign.  The usual methods either have not worked or are unlikely to work.  Unless the America and Iraqi government forces can deprive the terrorist on their local supporters and the intelligence they provide, they are in for a long, indecisive struggle." 

The death penalty returned to Iraq in the summer of 2005, having been suspended by Paul Bremer after the war began.  Three insurgents were sentenced to be hanged.  

News of July in Iraq included a new trend of abduction and murder of foreign diplomats.  First came the abduction and subsequent murder of the top Egyptian diplomat, ambassador designate, Ihab al-Sharif.  This was said to be a warning that governments should not cooperate with the Iraqi government which they deem a puppet of the U.S. Those from Pakistan, Bahrain, and Algeria were also targeted.  Pakistan announced it would withdraw its ambassador while  the Algeria diplomats were killed.

A top insurgent commander was captured in mid-July.  Khamis Farhan Khalaf Abd al-Fahdawi is suspected of involvement in the abduction and killing of the Egyptian diplomat and "in drive by shootings that failed to kill senior diplomats from Pakistan and Bahrain."

How bad is the violence, in comparison?  When the London bombings hit the news in early July of 2005, and then thought to be suicide bombers, we were reminded that over 500 suicide bombers have attacked in Iraq in the 28 months of the war.  This would average close to 20 every month, though the majority are in the past year. Put another way, there were 40 suicide attacks in June, down from 70 in May.  Midway through July looked like a record-setting month, with a rate of about 3 every day.  Is there an endless supply of those who would volunteer to be suicide bombers?

The Post's Richard Cohen's "Sanity in the Face of Suicide" (7/19/05) compares Palestinian and Iraq suicide bombings.  In about 10 years there were 90 such attacks by Palestinians.  In about two years in Iraq there have been 400.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/18/AR2005071801326_pf.html

On August 3, 2005, 14 deaths occurred from members of the Lima, Ohio (near Cleveland) marines were killed by a roadside bomb, in the deadliest roadside bomb attack of the entire war. 

Also see "Deaths" FAQ.

On a more positive front, the Iraq Prime Minister on July 12 told us that Iraqi security forces can take charge of some cities.  This would allow US forces to withdraw to outside bases.  For example, in Basra, British troops are rarely seen on the streets.  Iraq is generally more peaceful in the northern Kurdish areas and southern Shiite areas.

Some of these Iraqi security forces seem to have taken a page from the Hussein torture years.  10 Sunnis Arab men and youths, taken from a hospital, died from suffocation in a police van at 110 degrees.  

These deaths, according to veteran Times reporter John Burns, were certain to "provide a new flashpoint in relations between the America-backed transitional government in office for 10 weeks, and the country Sunni Arab minority, which is already angry and frustrated over the transfer of power to the Shiite majority that the new government represents."

Added a police officer, "With crimes like this, it's not hard to see why the insurgents keep on attacking the police.  Those in authority should do something to stop it."

John Burns' lead "Week in Review" report in the Times of July 24, was entitled, "If It's Civil War, Do We Know It?"   For background he writes that from the moment the war began, "the specter hanging over the American enterprise here has been that Iraq, freed from Mr. Hussein's tyranny, might prove to be so fractured--by political and religion, by culture and geography and the suspicion and enmity sown by Mr. Hussein's years of repression--that it would spiral inexorably into civil  war...Now, events are pointing more than ever to the possibly that the nightmare could come true. Recent weeks have seen the insurgency reach new heights of sustained brutality.  The violence is ever more centered on sectarian killings."  After months of restraint from Shiite leaders and turning the other cheek, Sistani has suggested the government needs to do more to protect them. "There are reports of Shiite death squads, some with links to the interior ministry...Many Iraqis are saying that the civil war has already begun."  Rosy Pentagon assessments which provide selected statistics "seem divorced from realities on the ground...Even the new Iraqi forces, haled by the...administration as they key to an eventual American troop withdrawal, seem as likely to provoke a civil war as to prevent one" because these forces are highly armed and are often dominated by Shiites. 

See more on Civil War on spring 2006. 

The training of Iraqi security forces came up again in late-July 2005 as the Pentagon admitted that many of those 160,000 trained by the US are not ready for combat.  Police and 2/3 of the Iraqi army cannot operate without US help.  The administration continues to link withdrawal of US forces with training of Iraqi forces.  See "When Might US Troops Come Home?" FAQ. 

The total is to be raised to 270,000 by the summer of 2006.  Some of these may be partially trained or border guards.  In the past, those have been counted who are paid but may or may not show up for work.  Also, hundreds have been killed in the spring and summer of 2005, making recruiting even more challenging. 

A Pentagon report in late July was vague about how the Iraqi forces are performing.  Explained the Secretary of Defense, "It's not for us to tell the other side, the enemy, the terrorists, that this Iraqi unit has this capability, and that Iraqi unit has this capability.  The ideas of discussing weaknesses, if you will, strength and weakness...that would be mindless to put that kind of information out."

As the Pentagon report was released, Lt. Gen. David Petraeus was replaced by Maj. Gen. Martin Dempsey as the leading of training Iraqi forces.

Some Iraqi army recruits are part of the insurgency, a US report concluded.  Screening and training is faulty.  The US is focused on the number of recruits rather than the quality.  However, the report concludes that the training has been a qualified success and many of the proposed changes are already being implemented. 

Are Iraqi forces getting ready to take over?  No, according to testimony from Gen. George Casey, head of coalition forces.  He told a Senate committee in late September that the number of battle-ready battalions in the Iraqi military has dropped from three to one in the past three months. 

A new training strategy was announced in January 2006.  Over 2000 (up from 1500) Army military police advisers will work side by side with Iraqi police officer.  The goal is 135,000 local police by early 2007. In 2005, nearly 1500 Iraqi police officers were killed and 3200 were wounded.  In the first two weeks of January 2006, nearly 40 have been killed. 

Back in early August 2005 the Pentagon reported the a 3-month US offensive near Syria has cut suicide attacks, but August proved to be the third deadliest month of the war with most killed from roadside bombs.   This report came out the day after 15 marines were killed.  The report spoke of fewer foreign fighters. "This is not an expanding insurgency.", said Brig. Gen. C. Donald Alston. Various offensives continued into September, especially in western Iraq.

On the less optimistic side, Marines reported than towns secured by offensives were losing security after most of the US troops moved on.  "It's a matter of available forces." This is typical of the Anbar province, making of the western 1/4 of Iraq and the size of Arkansas. 

That week the US also reported the deadly roadside bombs were being made in Iran.  The weapons are especially designed to destroy armored vehicles and are similar to those used against Israel by Hezbollah.  Some Middle East experts doubt the Iranian government or Hezbollah are involved.  Iraq has a porous border with Syria and Iran. About 40% of bomb attacks are thwarted.

The minister of interior spoke of Shiite forces committing massacres everyday and revenge killings.  He said that Iraqis and Americans are capturing "50 terrorists" a day.

Also a July-September 2005 Timeline of Iraq from the American Friends Service Committee.

US forces left Najaf in September 2005, handing of control of the holy Shiite city of southern Iraq to Iraqi security forces.  This was seen as a first step to repeated in a number of cities. In August 2004 Sardr's Mahdi Army fought against American troops.

Also see "Troops" FAQ on Iraqization. 

For a breakdown of violence and bombings in the summer and fall of 2005, see chart above. For many of the attacks, Al Qaeda in Iraq declared that they were responsible.  Since Shiites are often targeted and bin Laden is Sunni, this might be logical. There are reported to be 26 different insurgent groups throughout Iraq, both secular and religious.

When five Americans were killed in one day in late September 2005, it was, according to the front page New York Times story, "the deadliest single day...in almost two months."

In late September the first  woman suicide bomber attacked and killed at least five.  It was the first known female suicide bomber.  She turned out to be a Catholic from Belgium who converted to Islam.  38 year old Muriel Degauque  was believed to be the first European Muslim woman to stage a suicide attacks.

Also that week five Shiite teachers were assassinated in their primary school by Sunnis dressed in police uniforms.  Some children were still at school during the shooting.  The teachers were lined up against a classroom wall and executed. The attacks raised fears, reported the front page New York Times article, that "Iraqi schools, largely unprotected, could become targets."

Despite all the violence and lack of security/water/electricity/jobs, polls of 2005 show that Iraqis remain optimistic about the future of their country.

Azzam was labeled by Prime Minister al-Jaafari as the architect of scores of car bombings.  Commented General Richard Meyers, "It will have some effect, but over time they will replace people.

As is always the case, Iraqi civilians are killed in US offensives.  At least 20 went reported killed in one raid/bombing of mid-October.

How often are civilians killed?  We learned in November 2005 that it was U.S. policy to bomb homes in which suspected insurgents are hiding.  This was true even if women and children are known to also be in the house.

More civilian deaths were reported in late March 2006.  The Pentagon announced it was investigating reports from Iraqi police that US forces lined up and shot 11 civilians, including women and a six month old baby.  The mostly Sunni town of Ishaqi is north of Baghdad. 

A second investigation is from western Iraq in November. Were the 15 civilians killed by the US bomb blast or by gunfire?  One Iraqi said, "It was a massacre in every sense of the word." Among those killed, reported the March 21 Tribune, were an 8 year old boy, and four girls from the same family, ages 14,10,5, and 3.  All were shot.

A fall 2005 poll reported by John Kerry was that 45% of Iraqis feel it is OK to shoot at US troops.  I was not at first clear of the details of the poll, as it was ignored by the mainstream press.

Also see a July-September 2005 Timeline of Iraq from the American Friends Service Committee.

On October 24, as we were still waiting for the results of the October 15 referendum, a coordinated insurgent attack was launched on the famous hotel which houses foreign journalists and contractors.  The Palestine Hotel attacks killed at least 16 and wounded at least 22. Also see Iraq Politics 2005 FAQ

Three Amman, Jordan suicide bombings killed 52, including a wedding party at a hotel.  The attacks outraged Jordanians, who took to the streets calling for unity.  One of those whose bomb did not detonate, a woman,  confessed on Jordanian TV.  

Also see "Deaths" FAQ.

Zarqawi, the head of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia,  threatened to "chop off the head of King Abdullah II" and attack tourist sites throughout Jordan.  He also said he did not mean to kill civilians at the Amman wedding.

The next day, a sadly typical bombing at a Baghdad restaurant did not make similar headlines.  The restaurant, frequented by Iraqi police, resulted in 29 killed and 37 injured. This was on the eve of Veterans Day 2005. 

The Sunni-Shiite killings and political assassinations only seemed to get worse in November.  On the 23rd, dozens of gunmen wearing Iraqi army uniforms drove 10 sports-utility vehicles and pickup trucks through the streets of Baghdad at 4am.  They went to the home of a prominent Sunni tribal leader and gunned down him and his three sons.  He was the leader of the Batta clan of the Dulaimi tribe, linked with the regime of Saddam.  Was this why he was killed?  Some Sunni males, reported the front-page Times article, have been found dead in ditches and fields, "with bullet holes in their temples, acid burns on their skin, and holes in their bodies apparently made by electric drills.  Many have simply vanished." The grief has spilled out onto the streets of Baghdad.

Interior Minister Jabr, a Shiite, denied any involvement of Iraqi forces, saying they stole the cars and uniforms. Claims of deaths by security forces are hard to verity, warn human rights groups. The truth is "hard to distill" in a land of "rumor and allegation."

The Times further reported that one Sunni group taking testimony from families documented the death or disappearance of 700 Sunni civilians in just the past four months.

Chief suspects of this violence is the Badr Brigade, an Iranian-backed militia controlled by a powerful political group called The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. 

"Execution style" killings continued to be reported in January 2006, when 36 Iraqis were found in one day.  They were police recruits, and likely Sunni.  Sunnis are increasingly upset about roundups in their neighborhood.  Shiite militias continue to pose as Interior Ministry forces.  A hard-line Sunni cleric deplored the arrests:  "Did we reach the point where no one can feel safe in his home, on his road, with his family and his children?  What can the Iraqi do?  If he surrenders they will arrest him and torture him.  If he resists they will call him a terrorist." 

In a move similar to Bosnia in the 1990s, town are being pulled apart.  Families are leaving their mixed town and cities for safer areas.  Thus, enclaves are increasingly polarized and the sectarian map of Iraq is being redrawn, especially in and near Baghdad.  (Times, 11/20/05)

It was in this environment of torture and violence (155 Iraqis died over three days and 270 in the week of Thanksgiving) that former Prime Minister Allawi said human rights in Iraq in November 2005 were just as bad as during Saddam's reign.  One especially vicious late November attack was right outside a hospital in Mahmudiya. The vast majority of attacks on Iraqis were sectarian.

For more on these attacks, also see Spring 2006 violence. 

On November 26, 2005, just a few weeks before the December 15 elections, kidnapping returned, as they had been popular in 2004.  Among those taken were four from the Chicago-based group, Christian Peacemakers. Tom Fox, 54, is the American from Virginia captured by "Swords of Righteousness Brigade" group, who demand all Iraqi prisoners released by US and Iraqi authorities.  They set a deadline of Dec. 10. The Peacemakers group opposed the war and, ironically, examined prisoner mistreatment by US forces.  Al Jazeera showed a video of the four. Some Sunni groups and even Hamas has pleaded for their release.  The story grew as the "deadline" for their execution approached in early December.  Even Sunni leaders within Iraq pled for their release. The group is one of the few outside the fortified Green Zone of Baghdad, and they drove around without security. As 2005 came to a close, there was no news of the Christian Peacemakers being killed.  

Christian Peacemaker director and frequent visitor to Iraq, Gene Stolzfus, looks at the abductions and tries to understand the culture of terror.  All over the world, grass roots peacemakers ask him, "Why do they hate us?" more than any other question.  "Jealousy because of American economic life or technological energy?  No!...It has more to do with the fact that people think Americans can't be trusted, based of direct or indirect experience with the shadow side [of] American government war making...American people don't want to hear...It is too painful and wrenching.  For some it puts the entire democratic experiment at risk."  

NPR's "Weekend Edition" did a feature on Quaker peace activist Tom Fox during their Jan. 21 program.  He agreed before he returned to Iraq that he wanted no rescue and no punishment for anyone who captured or harmed him.

News at the end of January 2006 was that the Christian Peacemakers were still alive.  The captors showed them on a video, and vowed to kill them if all prisoners were not released. Vigils were held on Michigan Avenue in Chicago.

In early March another video was released.  Tom Fox was not present. 

Then, came the March 11 news of Fox's death.  At age 54, the peace activist from Virginia, had been in Iraqi since October 2002 and had disappeared on November 26.  Christian Peacemakers offered this statement:  "In grief we tremble before God who wraps us with compassion. The death of our beloved colleague and friend pierces us with pain."  The group's Chicago coordinator felt that Fox was singled out for death among the four kidnapped because he was American. She added that he was willing to die for peace as soldiers are willing to risk their lives in war.  See a complete statement from Christian Peacemakers and the American Friends Service Committee.

As Fox had said, "We forgive those who consider us their enemies.  We hope that in loving both friends and enemies and by intervening non-violently to aid those who are systematically oppressed, we can contribute in some small way to transforming this volatile situation."  Fox is now among the 40 foreigners killed and at least 250 kidnapped.  As the LA Times reported, Fox loved his enemies. 

Why peacemaker teams risk their lives is explored in  late March opinion piece from the Toronto Star. It deals with torture, Iraqi civilians, and other issues. 

Those urging for the release of Jill Carroll included American Muslim group, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, Al Azhar University in Cairo, and an influential preacher appearing on Al Jazeera.

Before her release, Carroll had taped a message condemning the US and complementing her kidnappers.  Upon her release, she corrected these statement, made to help gain her release. Dozens of people are kidnapped in Baghdad every day. 

Among the other foreigner kidnapped was a prominent German archeologist who had tried to stop the looting. She was released soon after the December 15 elections. The US denied any relationship between that release and the release of Iraqi prisoners at about the same time  

Two other Germans were abducted by men wearing Iraqi Army uniforms in late January, and shown on al-Jazeera.  They pleaded for the German government to intervene of their behalf. 

In the two months following the kidnapping of the Peacemakers, at least a dozen foreigners have been sized, including three Americans. See above for more on Jill Carroll and journalists

Rare good news came on the morning of March 23.  After four months, the three remaining living Christian Peacemaking Team were released/rescued.  The British media broke the story, as there were both UK and Canadian citizens, held since Nov. 26, 2005.  Into late March, there was still no word on Jill Carroll, the Germans, and hundreds of Iraqis still kidnapped. 

One example of the Iraqi on Iraqi violence, based on long tribal tradition, is honor killings.  NPR reported before the Dec. 15 elections that it was accepted tradition to kill a young woman who had sex outside of marriage.  It was even accepted for a family to kill their daughter after she was abducted and possibly raped.  These murders are rarely prosecuted in Iraq.

In the 2-3 weeks before the December 15 elections, violence was especially strong. Examples abound. In an early December  bombing killing 36 officers, the deadliest in Baghdad in months, one teacher asked, "Is this jihad against Iraqis?  I want to ask the mujaheddin, 'Do you slaughter your brother in the name of jihad?'"  In the days before the election, generals continue to predict that violence would get worse, even as cars were outlawed for three days.

For a few days after the December 15 elections when cars and bikes were not allowed on the streets, there was a lull in the violence, which proved temporary.  The violence picked up about five days after the elections, as Iraqi police, civilians, and a Marine were killed. Violence grew stronger about two weeks after the elections. 

Then on January 1, 2006, 8 car bombs went off in Baghdad and three in Kirkuk.  Most of the bombs were in parked cars. Amazingly, none were killed but the two suicide bombers, as 24 were injured.

January 4 was the most violent day in weeks, and the most deadly since the Dec. 15 elections.  At a Shiite funeral north of Baghdad, at least 30 were killed and 40 more.  The victim were at the gravesite. 

The following day the violence got even worse, with twin bombings in Karbala, a sacred Shiite city with pilgrims, and just 40 minutes later in Ramadi, a mostly Sunni city.  Those in Ramadi were mostly Sunnis being recruiting and interviewed as police. In Ramadi alone, at least 50 were killed and 60 injured. That day, January 5, over 130 died and hundreds were injured.  It was one of the most violence days of the entire war.

Thus, nearly 200 Iraqis died in two days of attacks.  The Iraqi Interior Ministry was quoted that week as estimating that 4000 Iraqi civilians died in 2005. This was the same week as the West Virginia coal mine accident killed 12 men. 

The Chicago Tribune reflected on the five deadliest days, all in 2004 or 2005.  See above for details of the March 2, 2004 violence in Karbala and Baghdad (181 killed), Feb. 2005 in Hillah (125), August 2005 (1000 in a stampede), and Sept. 2005 (162 in Balad)

Also see American and Iraqis deaths in chart form above

After a brief  holiday week lull, 50 Iraqis were killed in one day on January 18. 

The violence picked up a few weeks after the election and when it became clear from preliminary election results that Sunnis had not done as well as they hoped.  However, some of the violence was targeted at Sunni areas, such as Ramadi.

The worst attacks in weeks, in late February in Baghdad, is given perspective in the chart above. 

Violence against Shiites came in the form of a well planned bombing of the sacred Samarra golden mosque, which houses the tombs of imams descended from Mohammed hundreds of years ago. 

During this escalating violence of January 2006, (see "Deaths"), Zarqawi called on President Bush to "admit defeat."  Bin Laden has said that US goals are to occupy foreign Arab lands and steal their resources.

It was confirmed in late March 2006 that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has claimed to have joined with five other guerilla groups to form the "Mujahedeen Shura" headed by an Iraqi, Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi.  The Mujahedeen Ashura stopped taking claim for beheadings and large killings of civilians. The Times reports assumes this decision is based on advice from al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's notorious second in command. 

"Will It Be Different Now?", the lead story in the Times Week in Review (Dexter Filkins) examined the possible post-election developments. "But nothing in Iraq has ever been predictable; the picture dissolves too fast....the January elections were met with a similar wave of mayhem; by Dec. 1 of this year, more than 400 suicide bombers had blown themselves up by car and by truck, on bike and on foot...Less than three years ago, Iraqis lived in a state of near-permanent terror.  Today, Iraqis live in a society that is free but anarchic, full of hope and full of death, in the first stages of constructing a democratic polity that every week seems to flower and collapse." 

A number of US military leaders spoke out in December 2005 and January 2006. 

Gen. George Casey, the US commander in Iraq, cited a drop in suicide bombings to 26 in November, and just 16 through late December down from more than 60 in June.  Gen. Casey has also been quoted as saying that our offensives results in a strategy of "The Pillsbury Dough Boy" where we push in one area and the insurgents come out in another area.  He also suggested that fewer US troops lessens the Iraqi sense of dependency on the US. In early 2006, the Pentagon announced that Casey would be staying on for at least another year.

Gen. William Webster also used statistics to show improvement.  He commands 30,000 troops around Baghdad.  The number of attacks on American and Iraqi forces grew in 2005 (28/day up from 22/day), but only about 10% inflict casualties, down from 25-30%.  Car and roadside bombs have been cut in half while uncovering of weapons has doubled compared to a year ago.  He acknowledged that US troops are dying at about the same rate.  Webster is pleased that the number of Iraqi forces in Baghdad has increased twofold and they have responsibly for 60% of the city.  It's not clear how many of these are Sadr's forces. 

Reports in late January were of 83 attacks per day down from about 100/day in early October.  However, sectarian violence has increased. 

Lt. General Vines, speaking in the first week of 2006 from Iraq, but before the huge increase in violence, worried of sectarian rivalries and incompetence.  Problems like these, according to the Times, "could cripple major ministries and turn newly American-trained Iraqi security forces into militias for hire."

Respected New Yorker investigative reporter Seymour Hirsch wrote in December of increased air power  and how US forces will remain in Iraq.  His military sources tell him that in about the past year US planes have dropped two million 500 pound bombs.  Others have been 1000 pounds or larger. Some of these, which kill civilians, breed car bombers. Also see "Troops Home?" and "Deaths" FAQ.  

This increased reliance on air power leads to greater civilians deaths, as in January when a family of 12 Iraq was killed in a US bombing, including women and small children.  Retired General Robert Gard, speaking in Northbrook, IL on January 7, 2005, spoke of the natural reaction of revenge with these killings of civilians.  This is a main reason why the insurgency has not gotten any smaller, despite the deaths and detentions of thousands. The 500 pound bombs have a kill/injure radius of 400 meters and only 90% of the "smart" bombs hit the intended target.

Gard adds that US forces aim artillery, which is not very accurate, into urban areas in response to mortar rounds. The insurgent who fired the mortar usually leaves the area before the mortar even gets to its target. The Pentagon responds to charges from those like Gard by saying, "we are trying to avoid civilians casualties."

Zarqawi was reportedly replaced with an Iraq, in late January, 2006.  It was said to be Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi, the new "emir" of the new Mujahedeen Council.  This would likely to lead to a more Iraqi flavor and less foreign Arab flavor to some of the most violent insurgents. Given that Zarqawi was feeling squeezed, this report is not totally surprising. 

In mid-February violence picked up, with over 25 for two days in a row. Ambassador Khalilzad warned Iraqis that the US would "not invest the resources of the American people" in Iraqi security forces if they are too "sectarian."  Shiites were critical.  The major Sunni party had left talks.  The next day came the horrible news.  

"A Nation Divided" is Time Magazine's graphic on where the three major groups live.  Though most of the south is Shiite and most of the northeast is Kurd, other parts are very mixed.  It would take a brutal  Bosnia "ethnic cleansing" to try to divide Iraq into three countries.

However, in the days of violence which followed, at least three Sunni clerics were killed and over 100 Sunni mosques were attacked.  Prime Minister Jaafari called for three days of mourning while Shiite Grand Ayatollah Sistani  declared, "If the government's security forces cannot  provide the necessary protection, the believers will do it." Dozens of bodies were found executed in just 24 hours, and about 200 killed in just two days.  One soon forgot who "started" the reprisals, in this vicious circle of violence.  The front page Times lead story, competing with the winter Olympics, reported, "The threat of full-scale civil war loomed." It seemed obvious to many Iraqi observers that if it wasn't months before, that a civil war had begun.

President Bush said of the violent week, "It is a test for the Iraqi security forces."  If US forces didn't want to or couldn't stop the violence, Iraqization had come into full swing. "The days ahead...are going to be difficult and exhausting."  How many Iraqi battalions can "take the lead?"  53, up from 36 three months ago.  However, not one battalion can operate independently, down from one. 

The US did not stop the violence, saying the Iraqi forces were sufficiently trained to do so.  Sunnis were especially upset with the revenge killings and attacks on their mosque, seeing the US role of reminisce of the inaction in the April 2003 looting of Baghdad. But Iraq forces did little, often watching and sometimes joining in the violence.  Many Iraqis forces just watched Sunni mosques and leaders being attacked. Some Iraqi forces actually participated in the violence.  

At first we were told by Iraqi and US officials that the deaths were only 100-200 over the next few days.  Though early estimates were low, they were eventually tripled to reflect the ever deadly reality. On February 28, we learned that at least 1300 Iraqis had been murdered in the six days following the mosque bombing. Sadr's Mahdi Army of Shiites was often to blame. A day-time curfew was imposed, lessening the violence but providing a hardship on the people.  Prices spikes. 

One assumes that Sunnis were responsible.  Hakim also blamed the US, because our ambassador had threatened to withdraw if Sunni and Shiite politicians couldn't come to a quick agreement about the government.  Perhaps some Sunnis are hoping to take over after a quick US exit. 

This mosque attack was seen as a tipping point by many, including the Chicago Tribune editorial board.  It will be remembered as "the moment when Iraq was doomed to be a filed state riven by sectarian violence, if not civil war.  Or we will remember it as the moment when Iraqi proved it could rise above the greatest outrage."  Ending on a positive note, the editorial concluded, "The mosque can be rebuilt.  So can Iraq."

In a Civil War, what role does/will the US military play?  On March 10 Rumsfeld told Congress that Iraqi security forces will play the leading role "to the extent they can,", the Secretary added.  One wonders how this is possible. The units who are most sectarians are the police paramilitary forces, with about 17,000 members. The State Departments own report (3/9/06) on human rights abuses around the world condemned Iraqi police units as being dominated by militias.  They are linked to arbitrary arrest, torture, rape, and sometimes death of detainees.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/09/AR2006030900280_pf.html

A sadly typical day in early March found over 20 bodies found in Baghdad, gagged and murdered. Another day brought over 50 bodies.  Later that week a private security firm was raided by forces wearing Iraqi police uniforms.  50 of them were kidnapped at gunpoint.

During the weekend of March 11-12, 2006, about four dozen Iraqis were killed, many with six car bombs in eastern Baghdad.  Most of the dead were Shiite.  On March 14, 85 bodies were found, executed over the past two days.  Many bodies bore marks of torture, reported the front page Times story.  Amazingly, a truck full of dead men turned up at a busy intersection in Baghdad, "which has a strict curfew at night and ceaseless checkpoints during the day."  Once again, death squads controlled by the Interior Ministry are among those blamed for the executions. 

"Operation Swarmer" was launched by US forces at about this time.  Deemed the largest air attack in three years, the mid-March operation centered on Samara and involved little insurgent resistance.  One reason fewer Americans were being killed in March was likely a change in US policy.  Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarrelli, in charge of ground forces, says his troops should do more rebuilding and less fighting.  This is a challenge because local contractors are afraid to work for the Americans. "Every time we shoot at an Iraqi in this culture--a culture of honor--we stand the chance of taking someone who is sitting on the fence" and pushing him toward "the terrorist and foreign fighters."  The general continued, "We have picked so many folks who plant IED's.  But for all practical purpose we're getting the same number of IED's as we had before, in some instances even more.  So you've go to task yourself:  'How is that happening?  How do you break that cycle?'"

The number of IED's actually increased from 2004 to 2005 from about 5600 to about 10,600.  The fewest attacks are in the south of the country. Cities like Ramadi, Fallujah, Karbala, Tikrit, Najaf, Baquba, Mosul and Kirkuk could become household names for this generation of Americans. 

Charts from GlobalSecurity.org show attack trends rising from 2004 to 2005.

The "Has A Civil War Begun?" debate grew following the February violence which started with the bombing of the sacred Shiite mosque.  On March 19, Sen. Hagel said, "I think we have had a low-grade civil war going on...certainly the last six months, maybe the last year.  Our own general have told me that privately."  That day Rep. Murtha added, "It's a civil war.  25,000 insurgents are fighting with each other inside the county for supremacy.  That's the definition of a civil war."

US Generals and President Bush disagreed about the Civil War.  Gen. Casey, replied, "We're a long way from civil war." At a March 21 press conference, the President said, "If I didn't believe we could succeed, I wouldn't be there." 

Molly Ivins (Tribune, 3/30/06) thinks we get hung-up on terms like civil war.  "This is not helpful dialogue--remember the fight over whether there was an "insurgency" in Iraq or the Mission was still Accomplished, it was just "remnant Baathists and foreign terrorists"?...Faced with the unappetizing reality of Iraq, Bush and Rove are relying on that grand old reliable strategy--attack the media...Let me hasten to admit that I have no solution."

Allawi gained agreement that the violence of late March and early April was indeed a civil war.  Egyptian President termed the sectarian violence a civil war.  Mubarak has been President for over 25 years and is a strong ally of the U.S.

Thomas Friedman is confident that Iraq's fate of revenge killing is "at the 11th hour".  For details, see "Op-ed" FAQ section. 

Allawi might point to the raids on police stations.  On March 22, 100-200 insurgents stormed a police station in a coordinated attack, killing about 20 police officers,  freeing all the 30 prisoners, and burning the facility.  Also that day pilgrims were attacked trying to visit Karbala in southern Iraq.  Two pilgrims were killed and 46 wounded. These Shiites were there to honor Imam Hussein, the grandson of Muhammad, who was killed in 680 CE, leading to a split between Shiites and Sunni. 

A second police attacks that week was foiled and 50 gunmen were reported captured. 

With attacks taking a different form, after five days of no car bombs or suicide bombs in Baghdad, the lull picked up on March 23. 

In late March news came of beheaded bodies in a village north of Baghdad.  At least 30 were found.  In a sadly typical two day period of late March, at least 150 Iraqis were killed in just two days. For most of March the average number of Iraqis killed in Baghdad alone was 33 every day.  For comparison, Chicago has about 1 murder every day.

Blaming the negative news media reports, Rumsfeld urged for perspective on the progress in Iraq.  "History is a bigger picture, and it takes some time and perspective to measure accurately." Also see much more on "US Politics '06" FAQ.

Other bad news of late March was that an Iraqi doctor had killed at least 35 of his patients. He was paid by insurgents. Those killed were police officers and army soldiers, located in Kirkuk. The doctor confessed that he performed these acts "because I hate the Americans and what they've done to Iraq."

Also that week, US forces raided a mosque with followers of Sadr's Mahdi Army.  About 17-20 Iraqis were killed, including those unarmed in a prayer area and the 80 year old man. The raid was strongly condemned by Iraqi leaders. Some Shiite leaders want the US to end the use of its security forces. As University of Michigan Shiite expert Juan Cole said on the Newshour, The US "cannot stay if the Shiite [mainstream] turns on them." 

In response to these claims by the Iraqi government , American forces claimed it was not really a mosque, ("no mosques were entered by US forces") but just an area to pray, a "compound," that Iraqi fighters had done most of the shooting, and that those killed were dangerous insurgents who held a hostage, a dental assistant.  Gen. Peter Pace admitted that there was a small minaret "and a prayer room inside it.  Some people are calling that a mosque."  Would an investigation be conclusive?  

Probably the most sacred mosque for all Shiite, the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf, was attacked by Iraqis on April 6, killing at least 10 and wounding 34.  At the entrance to the cemetery and just a few hundred yards from the mosque.  Car bombs are rare for Najaf, with Shiites religious authorities and militias patrolling.  Careful readers of this cite will recall the horrific Najaf bombing of August 2003 when about 100 people were killed, including Ayatollah al-Hakim. This latest attack was followed by a triple suicide bombing at a historic Baghdad Shiite mosque, Baratha, killing at least 71 people. Ambassador Khalilzad feared that without a unified government, sectarian war could erupt and engulf the entire Middle East.

Also see "Iraq Politics 2006" FAQ.

At about this time, Shiite leader al-Hakim urged Shiites not to respond violently.  "This nation will not fall into the trap of sectarian war that is being pursued by Zarqawi's groups. 

Sadly, cluster bombs were still causing death, three years after they were first used.  In late March, one unexploded bomb killed a shepherd and a 6-year old boy.  See more on cluster bombs in "Deaths" FAQ.

A mid-January 2006 Washington Post story told of more doctors and other professionals leaving the country.

The "ethnic cleansing" reminiscent of Bosnia in the mid-1990s picked up pace in March and April of 2006.  At least 30,000 Iraqis have fled from mixed Sunni-Shiite areas, like Hindus and Muslims in India and Pakistan in the late-1940s.   According to the front page Times report (4/2/06), the country is "moving...toward a de facto partition along sectarian and ethnic lines."  If Iraq were to be partitioned, the north is mostly Kurd and the south is mostly Shiite, but the central areas are very mixed.  Would millions of people flee their homes?

By early May about 100,000 people had been displaced. The May 19 Times offered a front-page report and the mass exodus of the middle class, often to Jordan or Syria. One-fourth of the middle class has been issued passports in the past 10 months, with Iraqis in Jordan numbering close to a million. 

We learned in June 2006 that Iraqis were the largest new group of refugees in the world. Nearly 650,000 were refugrees in Syria and Jordan, 2.5% of the population. Since 2003 until the end of 2005, nearly 900,000 have moved abroad. The government issued two million passports from July 2004 until the end of 2005.

Also see "Are the People Better Off?" FAQ.

Iraqi schools are becoming segregated.  Especially in the north, Iraqi-Americans report from their relatives that schools are being segregated based on ethnicity, Kurd, Arab, Turkomen, and Assyrian. 

A US Embassy and military study painted  "somber portrait" of instability in Iraq.  Released on April 8, 2006, but written in January, before the February Shiite mosque bombing, it was seen in the front page Times article as "a count point to some recent upbeat public statement" by Rumsfeld and others.  Even provinces described as peaceful by US officials have a threat of sectarian violence, such as Kirkuk and Mosul.  Iraq is undergoing a "defacto partition" along ethnic and sectarian lines. Basra is often portrayed as peaceful but as "devolving into a min-theocracy" aligned with Iran and Sadr.  

The violence of mid-April included the news of Good Friday that 17 Iraqi officers were killed in an ambush of a police convoy.  About 30% of the Iraqi Army are going AWOL, reported the Tribune that day.  The desert with no punishment. Rules allow them to take a pay check or two and then quit.  Without the policy, the Pentagon feels they may gain virtually no volunteers. 

"On the ground, it's a civil war" blared the huge Chicago Tribune headline of Good Friday, April 14.  "...by any measure, Iraqis will tell you," reports Aamer Madhani, "that their country is embroiled in what amounts to a civil war."

The April 16 front page Tribune story opened, "US officials are doling out millions of dollars of arms and ammunition to Iraqi police units without safeguards required to ensure they are complying with American laws that ban taxpayer-financed assistance for foreign security forces engaged in human-rights violations, according to an internal State Department review."

Shiite militias moved north into Kirkuk, a city dominated by Kurds.  The US military seemed to make no efforts to prevent this development.  Kurds are trying to "purify" Kirkuk, which also has a Sunni population. 

In a related story from mid-May Kurds and Shiite units of the army clashed, with at least one soldier being killed.  This clash raises questions "about the discipline of the Iraqi Army units" and their abilities to "shed their sectarian and ethnic loyalties," reports the Times.

One sadly typical day in late-April produced the deaths of 40 Iraqi civilians and security force recruits.  Some were killed and others were found dead.  Seven car bombs hit the capital.  That day Maliki hinted that he would eliminate militias from security forces and that some Baathists would be allowed into government jobs.  Can Maliki reign in his own Shiites and induce Sunni's insurgents to curb their violence?  Also see "Iraq Politics '06"

For a continuation of the story and analysis of violence in Iraq, see "Post-Zarqawi Violence Since June 2006."

Every few months we wonder if violence is getting better or worse.  Generally, on many levels, it is getting worse.  This was true in April 2006 when we learned from the GAO that attacks against American-led forces, Iraqis and infrastructure increased 23% from 2004 to 2005.  The insurgency intensified in October 2005, we now have perspective to conclude.  

A new Zarqawi tape was released in late April.  This one, assuming it is authentic, is the video time he has willingly shown his face in a video. He took credit for many attacks,  called the US "crusaders," and denounced new Prime Minister Maliki.  The video predicted the American "defeat and humiliating", praised the insurgents, and said that the Americans "are slaughtering your children and shaming your women.  God almighty has chosen you to conduct holy war in your lands and has opened the doors of paradise to you.  So mujahadeen, don't dare close those doors."  The US reward for Zarqawi is still $25 million.

The US tried to discredit Zarqawi with outtakes from the video showing him fumbling with a weapon.  Experts and former US military personnel respond that the weapon does often jam and "they are making a big deal out of nothing."  Others point out that in Arab and Muslim societies, "pride and shame are felt much more profoundly than they are in Western culture."  

Zarqwawi's Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has been renamed Council of Holy Warriors. 

The sad news of May 2006 was the Iraqi police killed a 14-year old boy for being gay. This followed an anti-gay and anti-lesbian fatwa issued by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.  Human rights groups, according to the Independent (London) report, are "particularly concerned" with the Sadr and Badr militias. A few months earlier a transsexual was burnt to death by Badr militias.  

The State Department condemns Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE for their persecution of gays.  Responded the State Department, "The US government continues to work closely with our Iraqi partners to ensure the protection of human rights and the safety of all Iraqi citizens."

HBO's "Baghdad ER", premiering May 21, was the subject of Bob Herbert's May 1 column.  The show examines the 86th Combat Support Hospital in Baghdad's Green Zone.  Herbert writes, "The movie is neither pro-war not anti-war.  It is simply a searing record of the ferocities toll that combat takes on real human being...Above all else, war is about the suffering of individual...The movie does not shrink from those instances in which the G.I.'s do not survive."

Are US-insurgent talks making progress?  President Talabani in early May thinks a deal if possible with seven insurgent groups.  They are not "Saddamists" or supporters of Zarqawi.  The US denied entering into negotiations but labeled them "talks."  Among the insurgents groups who have denied talking with the US are Islamic Army in Iraq, the 1920 Revolution Brigade, the Mujahedeen Army and the Iraqi Resistance Islamic Front.  

New kidnapping statistics were reported in mid-May, with at least 439 foreigners kidnapped, over 3 per week.  This represents 60 nationalities.  The largest number have been private contactors and their employees. Of course, many more Iraqis have been kidnapped, 5-30 every day.  The average ransom of $30,000.  

A second Shiite shrine was damaged in mid-May, following the February bombing.  This time, the Imam Abdullah Al-Hadi shrine was bombed.  The area is mixed Sunni-Shiite where sectarian tensions are high.  Shieks are continued to be killed.

On the day of the good news of a new cabinet, (see Iraqi Politics '06)May 20, The Independent reported that ethnic cleansing was leading to the deterioration of the country. 

It turns out that after the US offensive on Fallujah in 2004, many insurgents simply fled to Ramadi.

Zarqawi was killed by the US on July 7, 2006. He made the covers of both Time and Newseek magazines.

For a continuation of the story and analysis of violence in Iraq, see "Post-Zarqawi Violence Since June 2006."