What is the Post-Zarqawi Violence Since June 2006?

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For Early Violence see "PS Violence Since December 2005"
For details on the estimated 650,000 Iraqis who have died, as of summer 2006, see "Deaths" FAQ.

Zarqawi was killed on June 8, 2006. The US bombed the house he was in. We wondered to what extent violence might decrease.

See much more on Blackwater FAQ Chapter

Columnist George Will labeled him as arguably the "most effective terrorist in history" and a "pornographer of violence."

In contrast, Sidney Blumenthal in The Guardian writes of the "risks of raising hope" after Zarqawi's killing.

The Chicago Tribune stays positive, feeling that difficult days ahead "ought not obscure the troops' success at hunting down and eradicating terrorist leaders" throughout the world. The "12 ruthless men" identified in 2004 by AP were seen leaders of "the next generation of global terror...This class of 2004 is in a world of hurt."

In contrast to the Tribune, as usual is the editorial page of the New York Times. "Too Soon to Cheer in Baghdad" sees the challenging job of Interior Minister, now filled by Jawad Kadem al-Bolani. His task is "to purge...Shiite militiamen" from forces, who have used the position "as cover for death and torture squads. That would do far more to bring stability to Iraq than the killing of Mr. Zarqawi." The paper concludes, "After too many photo-op's aimed at giving Mr. Bush and his fellow Republicans a short-term lift in the domestic opinion polls at election time, Americans hunger more than ever for a realistic game plan for Iraq and some real progress."

Could mid-June be a turning point for the war? Also see "The Good News" PS FAQ.

In terms of Iraqi security forces as al-Maliki began a crackdown in Baghdad, with troops and police in the Baghdad streets and a new curfew. Violence continued. Rumsfeld reminded us that in addition to the 130,000 US forces there were more than double Iraqi security forces, 263,000. Some of these forces are poorly trained and/or ineffective in stopping violence. Despite the crackdown, August deaths in Baghdad were about the same as July. The new plans for September to try to secure Baghdad were to built a trench around the entire city, with 29 checkpoints to control movement in and out.

For the Haditha Massacre, see Troops/Morale FAQ

The question "Is Iraq in a Civil War?" more often became in summer 2006, "Is it a full scale civil war or just a small one.? Some even asked, "Has the U.S. lost the war?" War supporter and conservative Max Boot, for example, said, "We're losing...The country is sliding into civil war, and the president doesn't seem to be doing very much about it. That has tremendous repercussions throughout the region and indeed the world, because it's really a black eye for the U.S. and a blow to democracy advocates around the region." Added author and former adviser to the Provincial Government, Larry Diamond, the death rate is 40,000/year. "If that isn't civil war, I don't know what is. I literally do not know anyone outside the administration who thinks that simply staying the course we're on now is going to work." A Poli Sci professor from Yale, Nicholas Sambanis, felt by late July that it the civil war was "official...Sometimes we cannot tell...until long after the fact...Conversely, it is sometimes yard to know when a civil war ends." But sectarian violence "is uprooting ever larger numbers of Iraqis." On the positive side, Iraq is "better off than many counties in the midst of a civil war: its income is relatively high, it has an educated populace and it can count on abundance foreign assistance if fighting ends." The Pentagon issued a report on September 1, 2006 that Iraq was "on the verge" of Civil War.

Is the violence a Civil War? Asked first on this web site in the summer of 2005, months before the Samarra bombing, the question keeps returning to the media in late 2006. The Times reports in Nov. 26 that most experts and professors agree that Iraq has been in a Civil War for many months, despite insistence otherwise by the Bush Administration. If it were a Civil War, would the US be stuck in the Middle? Whose site would we take? Would the war become less popular? Experts usually point to two criteria, groups fighting from the same country and death of at least 1000 people, at least 100 from each side. Many insurgencies and ethnic or sectarian wars are also civil wars, as in Lebanon and Vietnam. Baghdad, Mosul, and Baquba, mostly mixed areas, involve Shiite-Sunni violence, whereas the Sunni west violence is aimed at Americans. "Governments and people embroiled in a civil war often do not want to label it as such," as in Columbia today. Yale professor and author of Understanding Civil Wars, says, "It's stunning: it should have been called a civil war a long time ago." Of the 100 civil wars most experts agree on since 1945, the most deadly were Angola, Afghanistan, Nigeria, China, and Rwanda. A British historian disagrees, citing only five civil wars since the 17th century, and not including Iraq. Senator Biden said in September that "a political solution is necessary to end the civil war."

The day after the 5th anniversary of 9/11, we learned that Anbar Province is "lost" and will need another US division to be controlled. Haditha and Ramadi are part of Anbar. The US has 30,000 forces in Anbar, the size of Louisiana. In August and September, US forces were sent in greater number to Baghdad. A week later 25 of 31 tribes in Anbar joined forces to fight Al Qaeda insurgents and other "foreign-backed terrorists." A US General tried to clarify the "Anbar is lost" issue by saying that he had enough forces to carry out his mission but the mission did not include defeating the insurgency. General Zilmer's primary goal was to train Iraqis to take over security.

Did more US troops reduce the violence in Baghdad? We were told that in August 2006 Baghdad was less violent, that there were fewer murders. However, the Pentagon did not count people killed by bombs, mortars, rockets or other mass attacks like suicide bombings. One wonders, states the Tribune/AP, if greater US forces had any positive impact on the violence. In a related report, insurgent attacks jumped to 800/week in the second quarter of 2006, double the number of the first quarter. It was during this time that the new Iraqi government was officially established. Not all of the attacks are successful. Iraqi casualties, however, increased by 50% during the quarter. Iraqi civilians and security forces casualties reached 120 a day; about two years ago they were 30 a day. As the US focus on Baghdad continued into October, we learned that the number of US forces injured was the worst since 2004, during the offensive on Fallujah. Also see "Deaths FAQ"

Further, see "US Troops Come Home?" FAQ.

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Pentagon leaders believe the increase attacks on US forces in the fall of 2006 is due to the "increasingly aggressive security operations" by US troops.

Generally, about half of those injured return to duty.

Readers of this site will recall a turning point in the violence when a revered Shiite shrine in Samarra was bombed in February of 2006. In early September came the capture of the second-ranking leader of al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. He serves under al-Masri, who took over when Zarqawi was killed on June 7. Some military officials hesitated to clearly call him second in command.

With the prisoner rights story dominating Washington in mid-September, the media did not focus on the US handing over power, officially, to the Iraqi Army.

Iraqi troops are now showing up, upsetting Americans. They wish to stay near their home regions. Only 9000 Iraqi soldiers are in Baghdad. US commanders asked for extra troops in June.

One sad commentary on violence in September is the building of new Baghdad morgues. Two new branches will have more doctors and refrigerator units to raise capacity to as many as 250 corpses a day.

Life as a morgue worker is horrific. One man described how he brought 300 of the 800 bodies from a single sewage treatment station in Baghdad. Militias had been cumping mobdies intot sewers, adn they wind up at the station. (See Times of 12/6/06, "From Bombings to Birthings, Baghdad's Medics Have Seen, and Carried, It All."

Also see "Deaths FAQ".

We also know that death squads and militias are being tipped off with leaks on US raids. There are at least 23 militias just in Baghdad. These militias often torture their victims with gouged-out eyeballs and wounds from nails, power drills, acid burns, and electric cables.

Is the US winning the war? Of course, that depends on one's definition of "winning." The late September NIE report from the CIA and 15 other agencies concluded that in Rumsfeld's"long war", there are more terrorists being created than we can kill. However, the administration emphasized another part of the report: "Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves and be perceived to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight." Also see "US Politics '06" for the political implications of the NIE report.

The US may cut aid to Iraqi police, including the Interior Ministry. This trial balloon was again floated by Ambassador Khalilzad in late September. A US law prohibits the financing of foreign forces that commit"gross violations of human rights" and are not brought to justice, wrote the lead Times article of Sept. 30. A prison in eastern Baghdad, run by the Interior Department, has been found to torture. In this prison were found at least 37 teenagers or children. Iraqi leaders have issued 52 arrest warrants but none have been carried out.

Militias, which number at least 20 in Baghdad, yield more authority than the police or Iraqi troops. In fact, in a new, deadly twist, Shiite militias fought each other in late October. "Sadr vs. Badr", I coin the battle. Hundreds of militiamen were involved, using AK-47 and rocket-propelled grenades, as described under the Tribune's banner headline, "Militia storms Iraq city." Sadr's Mahdi Army has at least tacit support from Maliki. The Times called it "another nightmarish dimension to the bloodletting." Careful readers of this site will recall that Sadr led two major uprisings against US forces in 2004.

Can militias be disarmed? It doesn't appear to be realistic. When Maliki speaks of doing so, many Iraqis "furrow their brows", according to a Times report. "You need arms to defend yourself, adds one Iraqi. Many commentators began calling the militias by "death squads" by the fall of 2006. There are numerous reports of Iraqi police being infiltrated by militia.

Part of the problem with militias is the great availability of weapons. The front page Times story of Oct. 30, 2006 pointed out the the US fails to tracked arms to Iraqis, including hundreds of thousands of weapons. Spare parts of not provided. The report was requested in May by Sen. John Warner and completed by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction. Records are missing or confused on thousands of pistols and hundreds of assault rifles. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent in this area. Even simply recording serial numbers was not done, so at least 13,000 pistols were unaccounted for, and did not even arrive at the warehouse. All 751 M1-F assault rifles sent to Iraq went missing as well as 100 machine guns. The article adds that "official Iraq Army and police uniforms can easily be purchased." "The Untracked Guns of Iraq" was the following day's Times editorial, which opens, with the "chilling information" that " the last thing the US ought to be doing in Iraq is funneling weapons into blackmarket weapons bizaars, as sectrarian militias arm themselves for civil war." 370,000 weapons were provided by US taxpayers but only 12,000 were properly recorded.

The missing weapons story returned to the Times front page in mid-November, 2007. The Iraqi business man entrusted with distributing the arms in 2004 was named as Kassim al-Saffar. He "turned the armory into his own private arms bazaar, with the seeming approval of some Americans officials and executives." The retired Air Force sergeant feels that this "was the craziest thing in the world. They were taking weapons away by the truckload." Another estimated was that 30% of the weapons delivered went to Iraqi soldiers who "showed up for duty one day and disappeared the next." The number missing has increased to 190,000 pistols s and automatic rifles missing. It is unclear how many of these weapons have led to the death of Americans because they are impossible to trace. The article notes that "billions of dollars in arms were handed over to shoestring commands without significatn oversight." Part of the motivation, one may recall, was to boost the number of Iraqis the administration could claim were armed and/or trained.

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Is his new September book State of Denial, Bob Woodward writes of one attack every 15 minutes. The Pulitzer Prize winner and investigative journalist adds that classified reports on violence have bee misrepresented for over 3 1/2 years. For more on Woodward's impact, also see "US Politics '06".

As violence and politics seem to merge into one issue, in early October the Interior Ministry suspected a 700-800 police brigade for ties or involvement in death squads. The brigade was moved to north of Baghdad, but not disbanded. In other police news, hundreds were poisoned by a Ramadan meal. Some began bleeding from their ears and noses after the meal. 11 policemen died. About one week later, Iraq ousted two top police leaders. It is assumed that the police have infiltrated militias. Earlier in October Rice had warned Maliki of growing US impatience.

Careful readers of this site may recall that in March President Bush hailed the town of Tal Afar is an example of progress. About six months later, the town was a victim of suicide attacks, four in three weeks

In mid-October the third brother of the Iraqi VP was assassinated. Other members of his family have previously been killed. Killers wore military uniforms. Complained a member of Parliament, "The government is not working seriously to find a solution to the militias. He was killed because he was a Sunni."

What is happening to Iraqi schools and universities? 154 scholars have been murdered, as of fall 2006. One was the Dean of Economics of Baghdad University. Up to 1000 have fled the country. Reports of 75-150 teachers and scholars were kidnapped in one day in mid-November, forcing Iraqi officials to close all univesities. Dozens of gunmen, dressed in uniforms during the daylight, methodically raided the Ministry of Higher Education, separating the men, and drove away with them. After two days, about 30 were still being held.

School attacks and killings continued into 2007, with a girls school hit, killing five students, ages 12 to 16. At least 20 were wounded. As the Times reports on Jan. 29, "The girls had just finished taking an exam" when the bomb tore "limb from limb, shattering glass, shredding the students' blue and white uniforms and leaving survivors bloodied and confused...In a city seemingly numb to bloodshet, attacks on schools can still shock." According to the Iraqi government, schools in and around Baghdad have been attacked at least six times in the past month. University attacks are in addition to this fugure. Schools have lost attendance or just remained closed. In early February gunmen attacked a college killing the dean and his son before driving off in two cars.

I mid-October, US forces fought directly with the Sadr militia. By October 20, the lead front page of the papers was top US General Caldwell, unusually blunt and honest about bad news, admitting that the 12 week old Baghdad offensive had not been successful was "disheartening", had "fallen short" and "needs re-evaluation." During Operation Together Forward attacks soured by 22% as the US added 15,000 troops to Baghdad and were joined by about 10,000 Iraqi army and 30,000 Iraqi police. However, the Ministry of Defense send only two of the six battalions requested by the US. Americans troops led 95,000 house searches. The General considers how best to "refocus our forces." What would the next course of action be? "As Baghdad goes, so goes Iraq", said General Chiarelli, commander of US forces. Could Baghdad become like war-torn Beirut?

General Casey tried to put a positive spin on the violence by estimating that 90% of the sectarian violence is within 30 miles of Baghdad. 90% of the violence takes place in five of the 18 provinces. "This is not a country that is awash in sectarian violence."

On Halloween Maliki called for a lifting of roadblocks and checkpoints, manned by US and Iraqi forces, in Baghdad. It is not clear to what extent he consulted with US forces. Part of this new security had been as Americans searched for a missing US soldier, who allegedly had previously married an Iraqi woman. The roadblocks were very unpopular with Baghdad citizens, cause traffic backups and disrupting daily life and commerce. A few days later we learned that the soldier is thought to be alive, after being held for 10 days.

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For details on the estimated 650,000 Iraqis who have died, as of summer 2006, see "Deaths" FAQ.

Christians continue to be targeted, we were reminded in a front-page Times story of mid-October, 2007. Five car bombs exploded by the Church of the Virgin Mary and a priest was kidnapped from Mosul's Orthodox Church. Attendance at the Church, normally 500 (or 1500 on Easter) is down to about four dozen, due to fleeing and fear. Iraq's Christians are estimated at about one million, though up to 100,000 have fled to Syria, Jordan, and Turkey. About 800,000 Christians remain, 3% of the population. Violence against Christians has been steady, with kidnappings, assassinations, and threatening letters. Many Christian families from Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra, have fled to the north of Iraq, to a small town outside Erbil, were they find an oasis. Mosul, near the historic heart of Iraqi Christians, had become especially dangerous. In Basra, dominated by Shiites, Christian women fear violence upon them and wear Muslim head scarves to avoid harassment as zealots try to impose a strict dress code. Christians were generally treated better under Saddam.

The Times gives us a history lesson on Christians in Iraq: The faith took root 2000 years ago "making Iraq home to one of the oldest Christian communities." Biblical significance includes the Garden of Eden, Abraham's home in Ur, and Nineveh, where Jonah visited. "Both Chaldean Catholics and Assyrian Christians...still pray in Aramaic, the language of Jesus." Also see early "Violence" FAQs for Christians being killed.

There was some good news for Christians in December 2009. The US was helping to repair the damage (some done by the US) to Saint Elijah's Church, in the midst of a large US base just south of Mosul. The monastery, with 26 rooms, was built in the 11th century, is sacred for ancient worship and martyrdom. Not as old as other Iraqi sites such as Sumerian, Babylonian, and Assyrian civilization, which are endangered by decay and looting. The tomb of prophet Jonah, from the Old Testament, is also nearby. "Ninevah is like a walk through the Bible," described the lead American in charge of restoration. Elijah was an Assyrian monk who traveled from neighboring Turkey. In the 1700s the monks were commanded by the Persian King to convert to Islam; they chose to die.

The UN estimated in late October that a total of 1-1.5 million Iraqis have fled their homes. Author Patrick Cockburn examines the exodus in October 2006. An additional 1.5 million have left the country. Other estimates are of 300,000 fleeing their homes and 900,000 moving to neighboring countries. At least half have fled their homes since the Samarra shrine bombing of February 2006. In November as the violence escalated once again, one estimate was of 1000 new refugees every day, while another was of 100,000 every month leaving the country. Only 466 Iraqi refugees have been admitted to the US, a Chicago Tribune editorial points out. After the end of the Vietnam War, the US accepted 100,000 Vietnamese and 15,000 Iraqi Shiites after the Gulf War.

See much more on Refugees at "Are the People Better Off?" FAQ.

We heard again in November 2006 that doctors and professionals continue to leave Iraq. Both Shiites and Sunnis are afraid to come to hospitals because they are being dragged from their beds, out of the hospital, and murdered, usually in broad daylight.

Among other Iraqis killed, assasinated, or kidnapped are mostly unnamed. Some a well knows, like a well loved comedian, killed in mid-November. Soccer players and federation leaders are also targetted with kidnappings and killings. One was the director of the Talaba Club. In July dozens were kidnapped from Iraq's National Olympic Committee. The Olympic cycling coach was killed in December.

The cycle of violence is thoroughly explained in a front page Times report of Nov. 20. Militias come to funerals to offer to carry our revenge attacks. Trust between sects becomes lower and larger portions of fringes are radicalized. "The killings are sometimes as brutal as they were under Saddam Hussein" with horrific torture. "The bodies are dumped in sewage areas and trash bins." Tribes belong to militias, which ensure safety when the central government is so weak. Says one Iraqi, "Revenge...is in the history of the country, in the blood of the people." Some Iraqis, to get revenge, kill strangers. Another man, Hassan Jabr, a Shiite, was forever changed by seeing his 12- year old son in the morgue. At the morgue a man in his 20s, whose only brother had been killed, killed three Sunnis to avenge the death. When Jabr was more restrained, the man replied, "Are you a coward--why don't you take revenge?"

For more, see "PS FAQ-- Deaths."

A US hotline is not functioning well, reported Iraqis in November 2006. $10 million was budgetted by the US for adverstisemtn and market research. Hailed as a growing success by US officials, Iraqis often find no one at the other end of the line. Those who got through complained that there was no evident response from security forces.

The Pentagon admits the violence is approaching "chaos", according to Central Command charts. A classfied briefing in October, made public on November 1, portrays Iraq "edging toward chaos", reports the New York Times. The "Index of Civil Conflict" shows an upsurge since the February bombing at the Shiite mosque in Samarra. A spokesman refused to comment on secret material. The political center is disintegrating and rival factions are increasingly warring with eachother, concludes CIA chief Hayden. The CIA estimated in November that there are 1300 foreign fighters and the number of Sunni insurgents is now about 10,000. Of course, Iraq is a tribal society which focuses on the honor of revenge.

One sign of chaos are the attacks within the Green Zone of Baghdad, where in November a bomb exploded inside the empty car of the speaker of Parliament. In October 2004 inside the tight security of the Green Zone two bombs killed at least five people, including three Americans.

Debate in December 2006 was over whether the US was winning or losing. General Pace proclaimed, "We are not winning, but wer are not losing." President Bush, for months, consistently spoke of "progress." Former Sec. of State Powell added, "We're not winning, we are losing. We haven't lost."

Pentagon leaders testified to the Senate in early November. General Maples describes violence as increasing "is scope, complexity and lethality" thus creating " an atmosphere of fear and hardening secratianism, which is empowering militias and vigilante groups."

The chart below does not deal with lethality of attacks. For more, see "PS FAQ-- Death."

The bad news continued in mid-November. Five American civilians contractors were kidnapped in a huge convoy of 43 vehicles coming from Kuwait. They were stopped in a Shiite-dominated area by armed men at a fake checkpoint. This was the largest kidnapping of US citizens since the war began, over 2 1/2 years ago. The front page Times story calls it "the latest in a string of audacious kidnappings that have undermined confidence in the Iraqi security forces and the government" and underscores "fears that the security forces have sheltered sectarian fighters or are at least turning a blind eye to them."

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The violence also involves new tactics, US officials reported in late November. Iraqis are willing to fight US forces head on, with one battle lasting 40 hours, despite US airstrikes. US officials noted the discipline and "perfect military formation."

The violence is so widespread and varied. In 2004-2005 we talked of the insurgency. In 2006, we spoke of sectarian violence. In the spirit of the War on Terror, I've coined the term TER, which stands for some of the causes of violence. Tribal, Ethnic, Religious. A Pulizer Prize winner for the Washington Post, Anthony Shadid, sees violence coming from gangs over turf, militias, insugency, and others. As Maureen Dowd points out, "Civil War was perhaps too easy a term, a little too tidy."

Insurgents remain a mystery to the U.S., as well as they remain confusing with TER, above. The Iraq Study Group of early December determines that neither the insurgency nor the militias are understood well. Some intelligence is fed to the US is "vulnerable to manipulation" by some who have an ax to grind or want to make money by selling information to the US. Analysts are rotated out to quickly to have proper perspective.

Sunni sheiks are beginning to ally with the US, because those who started to support Americans were killed. Children of shieks in Anbar were beheaded and their bodies left at their homes.

Every few months we ask the question, "Who are the Iraqi insurgency?" In January 2007, a Times special concluded that the Samarra mosque bombing was perpetuated by Al Qaeda. They declared an "Islamic State of Iraq" in October 2006, which covers 8 predominately Sunni provinces were some Shiites and Kurds live. At least 10 groups actually make up al Qaeda in Iraq, some are sectarian and some nationalistic. Some groups are: The Majahedeen Shura Council, 1920 Revolution Brigades, Islamic Army in Iraq, Majahedeen Army, Army of the Prophet's Companions, Army of the Conquerers, Knights of Monotheism, and Army of the Abrahamic Tradition.

What is a "takfiri?" The term is used by Sunni extremists to justify violence against Shiites, who are takfiri or excommunicators. These Shiites are not considered true Muslims? Differences like this are exploited for political ends and to "mobilize support for their cause," explains Middle East expert Joost Hiltermann.

Violence is underreported. The Iraq Study Group found 1100 violence acts on one day in July, but US officials in Iraq reported only 93. One partial explanation is from a US official that "a roadside bomb or a rocket or mortar attack that doesn't hurt US personal doesn't count.

One analyst likened the violence of November 2006 to a doctor examining a cancer patient. The patient has lung cancer and continues to smoke two packs of cigarettes every day. The patient asks, "Doc, what can I do?" When Iraqis ask that question of the US, what can the US suggest is a cure to the ailment?

Another analyst said poignantly, "After we invaded Iraq, Iraq invaded itself. We are at the mercy of Iraq, where there is no mercy."

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The most deadly attack of the war came on Thanksgiving Day in Sadr City as 161 were killed in a series of 5 bombings. Three suicide bombers blew up their cars in 15 minute intervals starting at 3pm. Sadr City is the huge Shiite slum, allied with Sadr and named after his father. Over 230 died that day throughout the country. Sadr appeared strengthened by the attacks, giving more legitimacy to his claim the Shiite militias were needed to protect his people. The cycle of violence continues to spiral out of control.

Insurgency is self-funding, reported the Times on Nov. 26 as part of a story leaked to the paper. In addition to the unregistered guns from the US, that we already knew of, now we see that smuggling, kidnapping, and counterfeiting are helping to fund the violence. Groups raise $70-$200 per year, including $36 million from ransoms, $30 million alone from allies France and Italy. The report offers little short-term help.

Gun prices surge on the black market. American pistols illustrate, according to the front page Times story, "how fear, mismanagement and malfeasance are shaping the small-arms market..." Corruption includes army and police weapons being re-sold on the black market.

The Iraqi Red Crescent, similar to the Red Cross, tries to aid civilians. A Senior official of the Iraqi Red Crescent said in December that harassment from US forces is a great threat to his work than the insurgents. Some Red Crescent workers were kidnapped at about this time.

For more, see "PS FAQ-- Death."

The "is it a Civil War" debated heated up less than a week after the most horrific day of violence, in Sadr City, on Thanksgiving. Of all the major radio, TV, and newspapers, NBC was the first to label the conflict a Civil War. On the Today show, the network said that "with armed militarized faction fighting for their own political agendas" they decided on the new terminology.

Actually, it terms out that the LA Times used the "C.W." phrase a few days earlier, though few observers noticed. The media has, though, been using "sliding into civil war" "on the verge of civil war" and similar phrases.Within the week Colin Powell was quoted as stating that the war "could be considered a civil war."

Reaction the the NBC categorization came from Clarence Page of the Tribune. "Words matter. They shape our perceptions and perceptions shape our political and, untimately, government policy...calls for a rapid departure can only increase."

The Iraqization trend took an interesting turn in late November, when President Bush, traveling in Europe and the Middle East, expressed that it was Maliki's job to come up with a solution to the violence. While on this trip to the Middle East, President Bush blamed the ongoing violence not on Iraqi militias or on Sunnis and Shiite but he placed the blame on al Qaeda. The Pentagon estimates that al Qaeda causes 2-3% of the violence. The quarterly Pentagon report was that there were now about 320,000 Iraqi soldiers, police officers, and other troops, an increase of 45,000 since August. As the Times reports that more troops has been accompanied were more violence, it raises the question "whether the American strategy to rely on the Iraqi forces to tamp down violence is failing, at least in the short term."

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Frank Rich, of the Times, is "startled" that Bush insists that Al Qaeda is primarily responsible for the spiraling violence. Bush's meeting with Maliki in Jordan was wasn't even "with the right guy...The most powerful leader" is Sadr and his militia. "If we're not going to take him out, as John McCain proposed this month, we might as well deal with him directly rather than with Mr. Maliki, his puppet." On Civil War, Rich writes, "Iraq arguably passed beyond civil war months ago into what might more accurately be termed ethnic cleansing or chaos." The tricky use of language is seen as a pattern, with Abu Ghraib was not "torture" and retreat is "pullback". "When the President said that 'absolutely, we're winning'" before the elections, "I just figured it was more of the same:; another expedient lie to further his partisan political ends. But that election has come and gone, and Mr. Bush is more isolated from eh real world than ever. That's scary." Rich concluded: "Civil war? Sectarian violence? A phase? This much is certain: The dead in iraq don't give a damn what we call it."

Five girls were killed by American forces in an all too typical story from late November. One was a baby. US troops attacked a house in Anbar after they suspected insurgents of firing at them from the roof. In Jalameda, the military said an airstrike killed 18 men and two women; loca officials put the casualties at 6 women and 5 children. Hundreds of residents marched nad chanted. Banners condemned "mass kilings by the occuption forces."

Did anything change in early 2007? Among the American civilians killed in January 2007 was Andrea Parhamovich, a young activist. She was killed in an ambush. Andrea, a 2000 graduate of Marietta College in Ohio, planned to be married in March, in Paris.

Shiite-led government has been "slow to act against militias" which are forcing Sunnis from their homes, in December, especially northern and eastern Baghdad. ARe Shiites planning to break the country into three and "purify" their areas, like Serbs did in Bosnia in the '80s? One Sunni cleric feels these actions "are part of a much wider plan....the groundwork for a civil war."

Does the US count dead Iraqis? Technically, no, especailly civilians. Also see "Deaths" FAQ. However, Bush, became frustrated with accusations that US forces "aren't doing anyting, they're just targets." He said that nearly 6000 "enemy forces had recently been killed or captured." Were body counts, infamous in Vietnam, back in vogue? How many of those captured were released or were innocent?

The Pentagon concluded that attacks in Iraq hit record levels by late December. There are nearly 1000 attacks every week on Iraqis or Americans. Overall violence was up 22% from the previous quarter. The majority of attacks are still against US forces, not Sunni-Shiite, the Pentagon concludes. Violence spiked in February 2006, after the Samarra mosque bombing. This new study also concluded what most observors already knew, that Shiite militia are creating more violence than the insurgency.

American military leaders changed in early January 2007. Gen. Casey, leader in Iraq, was replaced by Gen. Petraeus, and Gen. Abizaid of Central Command was replaced by Adm. William Fallon. Leaving as Ambassador of Iraq to be UN Ambassador was Zalmay Khalilzad, to be replaced in Baghdad by Ryan Crocker, formerly Ambassador to Pakistan and a speaker of Arabic.

"Working With the Wounded" is a vivid account of a Baghdad Operating Room, as heard in December on NPR's "All Things Considered."

Also see "Deaths" FAQ

Is Baghdad becoming a Shiite city? According to a front-page Times story of December 23, the Shiite and Maliki plan is to add to its nearly total political control of Baghdad. For example, of the 51 members of the Baghdad Provincila Council, running city services, just one is Sunni. At least 10 former mixed Baghdad neighborhoods are now almost entirely Shiite, mostly in the eastern parts of the city.

Also see "People Better Off?" for much more on refugees

Sometimes Sunni ambulance workers are intimidated are threatened by Shittes, and vice versa. Ann Garrels, veteran NPR correspondent in Iraq, provided vivid and sad details of the violence and desparation in her Jan. 28 piece, "Desparate Days for Iraq's Ambulance Drivers."

In a bizzare twist for good news, bodies found in late January less often showed signs of torture. When seven car bombs went off in Kirkuk on February 3, it was not even the top story.

In what could become the biggest story of February (2/19), a Sunni woman publicly charged that she had been raped by Shiites, in the form of the National Police. This caused a furor. As the front page Times story described it, "people across the country were stunned, some disbelieving, other horrified, but all riveted. The woman said the attack was video taped and that she was told she would be killed if she told anyone about it? Is the being given protection? The Baghdad woman, age 20, made detailed allegations on TV and added that the US actually rescued her and gave her medical treatment. Why, then, would the US simply say they were "investigating" and would not comment? A nurse, who would not give her name, saw signs of sexual and physical assualt. Only one attcker could be identify because the others wore masks.

At first Maliki vowed to investigate and hold those guilty accountable. Just a few hours later, however, he reversed himself and condemned the woman as a liar and criminal,and praised the Shiite police, seeing the false charges as mere propaganda. He fired the Sunni minister who asked for an investigation. Shiites feel smeared and Sunnis believe the government "cares little for justice and promotes a Shiite agenda," wrote the Times. Traditionally in Iraq, a man is rarely found guilty of rape and a woman is blamed and shunned. Iraqis can never recall a rape victim going on TV. A law professor at Baghdad University emphasized that many rape cases go unreported. "Rape cases in Iraq are viewed as a shameful thing to any woman regardless of the fact that she is the victim." Within a few days Maliki presented "evidecne" that the accusations were false, but the Times concluded that the document is "inconsclusive." Maliki went so far as to imply that the woman was unmarried and having an affair.

The next day an Iraqi police official alleged that a second Sunni woman had been raped. Three soldiers admitted the rape in Tal Afar a few weeks ago, and recorded the act on a cell phone. Unlike in the first case, the government quickly arrrested the soldiers.

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About a week after the President's January speech urging a surge/escalation, (See "US Politics '07") the US began arresting Sadr allies. For example, one was a top aide to Sadr, al-Darraji. He was arrested in a mosque. al-Darraji is suspected of murder and kidnapping. After Sadr disavowed him, al-Darraji went into hiding. Does this signify a crackdown on Sadr's militia? The Iraqi government claimed to have arrested several dozen members of Sadr's militia, the Mahdi Army. They have an estimated 7000 troops, mostly in Baghdad. Some American officials doubt this is a new will by Maliki. Will Sadr's militia simply lay low during the upcoming US offensive in Baghdad? Actually, Sadr said his followers will "welcome" US soldiers to Sadr City. One wonders what Sadr will do when the US soldiers eventually leave the area. Maliki keeps talking about now or soon not needing US troops in Baghdad. Sadr went to Iran for a few weeks, it was reported. After the offensive had lasted about two weeks, the Tribune front page story (competing with the Oscars) cited Sadr's concern that bombings by Sunnis had not decreased. Perhaps Shiite patience will run out and the cycle of revenge will escalate.

Also see "Iraq Politics 2007"

In early February a Senior Health Minister was arrested by the US. The Health Ministry has been dominated by Shiite militia led by Sadr. Sunni have been kidnapped from hospitals and are often too afraid to even go to a hospital. Over the next week the Iraqis "announced" a new crackdown in Baghdad (which critics thought Maliki would not follow up on) and announced the alleged wounding of Zarqawi's successor, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, leader of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. The US did not comment on the report. Some Iraqi officials disputed the claim.

The Iraqi in charge Lt. Gen. Aboud Qanbar, said the government would break into homes and cars, open mail, and eavesdrop on phone calls. New US outposts are called joint security stations. US officials were surprised that the Iraqis also announced that they ordered tens of thousands of residents to leave homes they are occupying illegally.

How is the US negotiating with its enemies? There had been months of talks leading up to the President's surge speech, though details were always sketchy. A more substantive story, on January 25, was the representatives of al-Maliki were negotiating with US military leaders to avoid an armed confrontation in Sadr City. In preliminary talks, Sadr's militia were willing to not carry their weapons in public if the area was ensured security in Sadr City. "Sadr backs Baghdad deal" reads the banner Tribune headline of Jan. 30. He seems to have agreed not to confront US forces, if negotiations succeed. With the worst single bombing since the war in early February, the Times lead story is, "Many Iraqis sat pace of US plan allowed attack." As the Mahdi Army leaves checkpoints, Shiite's feel threatened that they are missing a deterrent against violence toward them. Many a checkpoint could have stopped this deadly truck bomb. Shiites say Sunnis have been emboldened. Says one desperate Iraqi, "I wish they would attack us with a nuclear bomb and kill us all, so we will rest and anybody who wants the oil--which is the core of the problem--can come and get it. We can not live this way anymore. We are dying slowly every day." In mid-March there were signs that Sadr was cooperating less with the US.

Also see "Deaths" FAQ

In March 2007 came the news of a schism in the Madhi Army, with perhaps 3000 gunmen going to Iran to be trained. Current estimates of the Army size are 10,000-60,000. They are often described as "loosely knit."

David Brooks places some of violence in perspective in his Jan. 7 column: "Picture the person you love most in the world. Now imagine that person shredded by a bomb or dropped off one morning in the gutter with holes drilled through the back of the head. imagine your lifelong rage, and the terror of not knowing who will die next. Now imagine this has happened to someone in nearly every family on your block, and on the next block, and in the whole town. This is Iraqi society."

Fellow Times columnist Thomas Friedman wonders, in the wake of Martin Luther King Day, where is the "Martin Luther Al-King"? He is puzzled and upset that Muslim leaders don't condemn Sunni-Shiite violence. The Koran describes Mohammed as "a prophet of Mercy."

The new National Intelligence Estimate, released in early February after delays, proclaimed the obvious. As the first NIE on Iraq in a few years, the intelligence services agreed that the violence was bad, the situation was "increasingly perilous," "bleak" and it could get worse. Al Qaeda is less of a concern that Iraq-on-Iraq conflict. The lead Times editorial of Feb. 5, was not encouraged by the report. "Ethnic and sectarian identities are hardening and violence is spiraling, as shown again in [the Feb. 3] horrific Baghdad market bombing," the most deadly single attack of the entire war. "Iraq's new governing institutions weak and leading politicians have a 'winner-take-all attitude' that can only make maters even worse. The intelligence agencies see 'real improvements' in Iraqi security forces" but those gains are not encouraging and they are unlikely to be successful in fighting militias "in the next 12 to 18 months."

Six US helicopters were lost in just three weeks. At least five were shot down. Many have sophisticated antimissile technology but can be vulnerable to conventional weapons. In at least one case, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia claimed the deed. By late February 8 helicopters had been shot down in a month.

US helicopter forces attacked and killed a Kurdish militia in northern Iraq. The US admitted it was a mistake. The attacks of US allies, the Kurds, came at a well known Kurdish base. At least some of those approximately nine killed were part of President Talabani's party.

In the "is it a Civil War?" debate, former head of the CIA, McLaughlin, added a new wrinkle. "Civil War is checkers. This is chess." We now of Shiites killing Shiites, but a Sunni mosque attack in late February was especially troubling. It came the day after the Sunni Imam had condemned Sunni militants.

Exactly one year after the Samarra bombing of the Shiite golden mosque, explosions rocked Baghdad. The 72,000 golden tiles were shattered that day and there has been "no rebuilding and no healing." Neither sides trusts the other. Majority Sunnis of the city had long protected the mosque for 1000 years, but Shiites don't trust them to lead the reconstruction. The Samarra mosque contains the graves of the 10th and 11th imams, descended from Muhammad. It was the 12 imam who disappeared at age 5, al-Mahdi.

Also on the Samarra anniversary, loud explosions failed to interrupt a Maliki speech in the Green Zone. The explosions were from two miles away. In late February, Vice President Mehdi was injured in an assassination attempt. A bomb was placed under a chair, a few meet from where Maliki ended up sitting at a ceremony in the neighborhood of Mansour. There had been at least two previous assassination attempt upon him since 2004. His brother was assassinated in 2005.

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Another assasination attempt came in mid-March when the deputy Prime Minister was injured and taken to the hosptial. The Sunni leader was attacked by two different bombers at his home.

With the new US offensive/security plan underway on Valentine's Day, there was a lull in the violence for a few days. One broadcaster said, "only 5 bodies were found in Baghdad last night, down from the usual 50." Said a Times report, the number of bodies discovered in Baghdad each day had decreased from 35-50 to 30 or fewer. "There are few signs of progress." The lull appeared to end on Feb. 18, just after a surprise visit by Secretary Rice. For example, as Shiites tended to remain quite in mid-February, a brazen Sunni attack came on a US outpost. Two Americans were killed and others wounded. In early March, the US agreed with authorities to build a military stronghold within Sadr City to gain a permanent presence for the first time there since 2004. US forces would live with Iraqis in an Iraqi police station. The US searched homes for weapons, but found few, because militia knew they were coming, it was not a surprise.

Shiite-Sunni interaction is greatly reduced, after centuries "full of vibrant interaction." (Times, 3/4/07). The interaction included marriages and trade but now the violence is so bad that "conversations never [start]" and doors are never entered.

For months, I wondered why colleges were attacked, since often Sunnis and Shiites attend together. The Times suggested in late February that the goal of the attackers was to force the secular and educated class leave the country. This might be a goal of a group like al Qaeda.

Iraqis watch attacks on Americans on satellite TV. The Chicago Tribune front page article of Feb. 25, describes the graphic details: "A Humvee moving through a grove a palm trees erupts in a ball of fire. An American soldier on guard in the turret of his tank suddenly crumples, felled by a snipers bullet. Marines on a foot patrol are obliterated by a huge explosion that fills the screen with dense black smoke. The station, Al-Zawraa, the "the face of the insurgency", showing viewers how to attack Americans and how to build bombs. The anchor broadcaster wears the uniform of Saddam's Fedayeen fighters, while the station slogan is "We Win or We Die." Yet, the station denounces al Qaeda. It is owned by a Sunni member of Parliament who lives in Damascus.

For ABC's Bob Woodruff injury and story from 2006, go to "Violence 2006" FAQ.

Another journalist who risks her life in Iraq is NPR's Anne Garrels. Her late February piece on All Things Considered provided helpful insights into the inner workings of Sadr City. The veteran correspondent and author describes the poverty, militias, and slow progress on reconstruction. She reminds listeners that Sadr's father and two brothers had been killed by Saddam. Does the mayor of Sadr City have power of the Mehdi Army? She calls the relative lull in violence in late February "an uneasy truce."

Another journalist, for the Washington Post, was shot and killed in mid-October 2007. Mr. Adlin, of Tikrit, was taking photographs at the time. A total of 118 journalists have now been killed, at least 96 being Iraqis.

Also in Sadr City in mid-March 2007, when Iraqi soldiers stopped a suicide bomber, seven of them were killed. One survivor had shrapnel sliced into her leg, fracturing bones and knocking her unconscious.

Also that month, the US soldiers were accused of shooting civilians in Sadr City. Three children were shot dead in the car, ages 7, 9 and 11. One side alleged the shooting was unprovoked while the US at first vowed to investigate and then said they car did not stop when ordered.

In Ramadi in early March, the US blew up an ammunition dump. However, the underestimated how large the explosions would be and at least 30 civilians were wounded by flying glass and debris.

The March 2007 suicide attack on bookseller's row (20 killed; 65 wounded) represented the destruction of part of Iraqi's famed intellectual history. As the Times describes, Mutanabi Street was "A throwback to the Baghdad of old, the days of students browsing for texts, turbaned clerics hunting down religious tomes and cafe intellectual debating politics over backgammon. Somehow it survived the war, until Monday...Books and stationary...littered the block" by "buildings dating to the Ottoman Empire" and even back centuries to the Abbasid dynasty. Remarked one poet, "Those who did this are like savage machines intent on harvesting souls and killing all bright minds." "Those terrorists do not represent Islam...They are fighting science," added another. The crater left was over 9 feet deep; 20 cars were set on fire.

The deadliest attacks in a month were against Shiite pilgrims were on their to Karbala to ironically commemorate the end of 40 days of mourning the death of Imam Hussein, Mohammed's grandson. Hussein was killed at Karbala in 680 AD, along with 72 of his followers, who were challenging the authority of the caliphate. This event led to the Sunni-Shiite split. 1-3 million Shiites were expected in the holy city on one day, the largest celebration in decades. Some traveling as much as ten days by foot. Others traveled in donkey carts or were pushed in wheelchairs. Lured by cakes, 115 in Hilla died in two suicide bombers in coordinated attacks, and nearly 150 died throughout the bloody day of March 6. Over 200 were wounded. Some felt like martyrs, like Hussein. "Shia think that if they're killed on this day, they're killed for God and their blood avenges the death of Hussein," commented a mechanical engineer. Waving flags, the Shiites made easy targets. Said one distraught survivor, "I saw women and children getting blow up and torn to pieces." The Times report added, "The explosion left blood and hunks of human flesh covering the ground and stuck to the facade of the shops." Shiites blamed police who had stopped the pilgrims from doing their own searches. Will the Mahdi Army, quiet in Baghdad, feel the need to respond?

The "new" violence in mid-March was the mass burning of homes. Estimates of 6-30 homes were set on fire, both Sunni and Shiite in Diyala, northeast of Baghdad A group called the Islamic Stae of Iraq had recently demanded money, weapons, "and oaths of support" from locals who are now scared into "giving or running away." In some areas, the group brazenly flies their own flag, not the Iraqi flag. As the front page Times reports (3/12/07), these attacks raise "the specter of a new intimidation tactic in Iraq's evolving civil war." Deaths threats are made to those who intermmary or even have cross-sectrarian friendships. In April shopt were also burned.

Yet another method of new violence appeared just a week later as suicide bombers used children as decoys in a car. They got past a check point, ran away from the car, leaving the children to be blown up.

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In March 2007, after the surge/escalation had begun, the Pentagon finally admitted what has been apparent to most for over a year, Iraq is in a Civil War. The past three month had been the most violence since 2003.

Yet, the Iraqi government showed statistics that the violence in Baghdad was declining. Americans were more cautious. Civilians deaths and car bombings are down, but US deaths are up in Baghdad. As the Times reports, "It is not clear" what these statistics "were based on," because a Times analysis comes up with different numbers, which usually even underestimate the deaths. The US refused to provide a count of civilians deaths. Mass kidnappers are agreed to be down. Some shopping districts have come back to life. Also see "The Good News" FAQ.

As violence may be starting to decrease, fewer area Shiites venture to Iraq for their pilrimage. Some Chicago Shiites travel to Karbala, to honor Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed. Says who Chicago Shiite, "It's heartbraking for me. I love the place. But it's too dangerous over there.

The mayor of Sadr City was nearly assasinated but survived an attack on his car. He has been cooperating with US forces. Tens of thousands of protestors gathered in Sadr City.

Did Americans shoot worshipers inside a mosque trying to run away, or was the American version true? The US claimed their soldiers never actually entered the mosque. Obviously, Muslims resent having "their sacred places dragged into the war," reported the March 21 Times. This story surfaced in mid-March 2007, out of West Baghdad. Both sides agree 50 people were temporarily detained.

To stem the violence, the US will need to protect Baghdad neighborhoods and also shut down bomb factories and uncover arms on the outskirts of the cities, say US military leaders. How will they charged the "hearts and minds" of these enemies?

Prisoners in a British jail secretly swapped places with visitors. The Basra prison caper involved swapping clothes. Thousands of Iraqis remain detained by US and British troops, some for over two years. Most have not been charged with any crime.

Was the "surge" reducing violence? Yes and No. In the 7 weeks since the surge began on Feb. 14, the violence toward Iraqis in Baghdad has decreased whereas the violence outside Baghdad has decreased. Death squads are lying low while car bombings increase. In fact, a record number of car bombs were either detonated or disarmed in March. Sunnis continue to be threatened. Sunnis militias are active in Baghdad, and the beheadings strarted up again in April. For example, spary paint on a wall reads, "Get out or you'll pay with your blood." More Americans are dying in the capital; fewer outside the capital. Political compromises have not come to fruition. By June, the Pentagon reproted that fewer than 1/3 of Baghdad neigborhoods were under US control. Iraqi security forces (ISF) are faulted. The last surge units were arriving in June. Violence has diminished in some areas, and worsened in others. Sometimes the US returns to the same areas to try to get rid of insurgents. The original plan called for most of Baghdad to be pacified around July to that the US could move to restoring services and rebuilding neighborhoods. Said a top commander, "We were way too optimistic."

"The Battle For Baghdad" is a video series of interviews from Times correspondent John F. Burns. He examines the beginnings and the current financing of the insurgency. Part of the funds come from trucks of cash stolen by Qusay, just before the war. The insurgency, he estimates, can operate for a year with less money than than the US military for a single day. Burns feels that Iran will not allow the Shiites to lose a civil war: "They're not going to see it go down." More optimistically, both Sunni and Shiite, despite their feelings about the invasion, "they now want American troops" as the only option "for stabilization." He adds that kidnapping is arguably the second biggest industry in Iraq, after oil.

The biggest violence involving US troops since the surge began occurred in mid-April. Iraqi and US forces fought Sunni civilians and fighters in a east Baghdad neighborhood of Fadhil. The violence was sparked when a mosque was stormed by Iraqi forces and two people were killed in front of worshipers during morning prayers. Deaths toll estimates varied.

A suicide bomber struck inside the Green Zone for the first time on April 12. The Green Zone, 5 square miles, had been seen as impregnable fortress. The explosion was inside the Iraqi Parliament building. At least one MP was killed, and over 20 wounded. One camera was rolling and filmed the chaos live. Can Iraqis be protected? Bush says his resolve in strengthened by the attack. In the 3 spring months of 2007, there had been 86 mortar and rocket attacks, killing at least 26.

The same day came demoralizing reports of a huge explosion which broke the famous and glorious Sarafiya Bridge across the Tigris in Baghdad. It is one of the oldest and most beautiful bridges in Baghdad, built by the British in 1951, helping Baghdad to be called "The Paris of the Middle East." With the Mutanabi Street book market bombed, "these places are very dear" to our hearts, said the security adviser to Maliki. Reacted a day laborer on the meaning of the bridge connecting predominantly Sunni west with Shiite east, "I wish they had killed one of my children rather than destroying the bridge which I consider part of my heart...They have destroyed us as well."

"Safe" Kurdistan was hit by two large bombs in one week of May, 2007. The first, in Erbil, was the worst in two years in the north. Kurdish leaders warned in early August of a "real civil war" over oil-rich Kirkuk. Talabani once again called Kirkuk "our Jerusalem" and has about 40% of Iraq's oil production.

In early May a senior al Qaeda leader was killed, the US announced. Jubouri was one of the leaders of an umbrella group. "Taking him off the street is a good thing," said a Pentagon leader.

A few days later we learned that projectile bombs hit a new high, despite efforts to crack down on them.

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Why is Baquba important? Just as Fallujah and Najaf and Ramadi before them, it appeared in April or May that Baquba could be the next stronghold of the insurgency. Fighters were migrating there.

The US killed an al Qaeda leader in early May. His umbrella group is the Islamic State in Iraq. Would violence decrease or would he quickly be replaced?

Allegly in response, the umbrella group The Islamic State of Iraq/Mesopotamia which includes al Qaeda, claimed to be responsible for the capture of three Americans. On their web site, this group spoke of the "Crusaders patrol" being ambushed. This attack was near Mahmudiya, the site of torture by US troops in the past. (See more at Troops FAQ.) The search for these three GI's took 6000 US troops and lasted over two weeks, as they swept entire areas, faced many false alarms, marched 12 miles through fields and orchards, and even drained a swamp. There were "many tips and few answers." After nearly two weeks, one US soldier's body was found in a river. The search for the other two continued into June and a third week.

About two weeks after the U.S. soldiers were captured, five British citizens were captured, allegedly held by the Mehdi Armny.

Only in May 2007 did we learn that much of the violence was predicted by a 2002 National Intelligence Estimate. What if this document had become public in the fall of 2002, when it was written?

This chaos of Iraq was predicted by US intelligence, it was revealed in late May, 2007. Al Qaeda would have new opportunities and sectarian violence would flare. Further warnings were that Iran could be provoked. The report was released by a Senate Intelligence Committee. The President did not focus on this part of his pre-war message.

Also in late May reports surfaced that militants in Iraq are taking their training the neighboring countries, such as Lebanon.

A teenage girl was stoned to death by a mob, including her uncle and cousins. The top Tribune article on May 22 was, "Iraqi girl's horrific death." So-called "honor killings" and revenge killings are on the rise in Iraq and not reported in the US or the Iraqi press. In the first two months of 2007, 40 women had been killed for alleged "immoral conduct" such as sitting in a car with a man who is not a relative or adultery. However, in this case a crude video was taken of the brutal killing. Duaa Khali Aswad was killed for being in love with a Sunni. She was a Yazidi. There were revenge attacks with 20 men dragged off a bus and shot.

Who are Yazidis? Their ancient religion combines Zoroastrians (founded in modern day Iran), Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Before the war began in 2003, there were an estimated 550,000 in mostly northern Iraq. Yazidis say they have been persecuted for their religious beliefs for centuries. The persecution of Bahaii also comes to mind, especially in neighboring Iran.

The worst attacks of the entire war occured on August 14, 2007. Tanker trucks blew up in Kurdish towns near Syria. Most of those killed were Yazidis, whose religion accepts some ancient Persian beliefs. A few months earlier Yazidis had stoned a woman who had a relationship with a Sunni. Retaliations had followed.

When Sadr returned, at least publicly, just before Memorial Day of 2007, US troops clashed with his forces. This Mahdi Army was operating more openly in May and June. For example, they control two of three gas stations in one area, and refuse to sell to Sunnis and attack trash trucks. US leaders continue to worry that the mostly Shiite security forces sympathize or collaborate with the Madhi Army. For example, six officers were arrested and US thus shows distrust for other officers.

Negotiations with Sadr's group secretly began in early 2006, it was confirmed in September 2007. This is a sharp reversal in a policy which called for his arrest in 2004 and sparked Shiite revolts battles with Sadr's Mehdi Army in Baghdad in Najaf, leaving hundreds dead. US officials are hoping for a "marriage of convenience." Sadr is still the most powerful force in Baghdad. See more on Sadr below.

IED's were ever more the weapons of choice in May, accounting for 80% of US deaths. 50% of the IED's are being found before they explode. Spring of 2007 was more violent than 2006, 2005, or 2004. One question asked for often of Americans in May was "how much worse" would the violence get if US troops withdrew? Of course, we don't know for sure.

Cougar MRAP's were hurriedly ordered in the summer of 2007. They are armored vehicles at $500,000 or more each. The Pentagon wants 6400 with more to come, to replace Humvees.

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In potential good news, which was hard to find in June, a Sunni insurgent group announced a truce with al Qaeda.

US negotiations with insurgents was back in the news in a more public way in May and June. The US had decided to arm some Sunni groups who promised to fight against al Qaeda.

As the US begun a new offensive in June, a huge truck bomb killed at least 60 near at a Baghdad mosque frequented by Shia, Sunni, and Kurd. Over 130 were wounded, but that figure would likley increase. One witness, a carpenter, just leaving noonday prayers, described the graphic scene: "I saw many charred bodies in the streets. People were screaming, caling for help. I asaw many peole buring insdie their cars. Charred bodies, mixed and mleted with charred cars." As is usually the case, the Times did not put a photo of killed or wounded civilians on its front page. Also as usual, Iraqis reacted differently to the latest horrific attack. An attempt to aggravate sectarian violence, more evidence the Americans cannot protect them. One doubted the US concern: "The Americans know everything, they can do everything, they can repair the space shuttle without touching it, why do they let these things happen here in Iraq?" One believes the US wants this violence to occur. Others blame al Qaeda, a term used to describe terrorists in general.

Who is killing Americans in 2007? Mostly Shittes, claims a US general, who feels they are resposible for 73% of attacks in Baghdad in July. Of the prisoners held by Americans, only 1.2% are from foreign countries. Sadly, 60% of the foreign fighters and suicide bombers come from US allied countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Libya. About 40-100 per month come to Iraq. The third most popular country of origin is Algeria.

Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, often just called "Al Qaeda" by the administration, is defined by the Times as "the mostly homegrown insurgent group that the US/American intelligence believes is foreign-led."

With the "surge" of US troops complete in June, the US started a new offensive in Baquba. Diyala Province now seemed to get more emphasis than Anbar. How does the military counter the "whack-a-mole" strategy of the insurgents, who hide or pop up in another location? The front page Times article of June 20 examined this arcade game strategy. How does one plug the holes? One problem is that thousands of civilians remain in the city. Despite leaflets asking them to stay inside, many came out of their homes, and some tried to go to college classes. The US will try to keep insurgents from leaving, with fingerprinting, local Iraqi help, and blocking exit routes. Some fighters may hide their weapons or just blend in with the locals.

In reaction to another Baghdad attack, this one in June 2007, a carpenter said he saw "many charred bodies in the streets. People were screaming, calling for help. I saw many people burning inside their cars. Charred bodies mixed and melted with charred cars." Iraqis claimed the bomb on a Shiite mosque was to increase sectarian tension and showed the weakness of Americans to protect them. (NY Times, 6/20/07). Commented one, "The Americans know everything, they can do everything, they can repair the space shuttle without touching it, why do they let these things happen here in Iraq? We think the Americans want these things to happen."

In the summer of 2007, is Iraq in a civil war? No, it's not a simple Shiite vs. Sunni. For example, Shiites are killing Shiites. The police force, the front page Times reported (6/21/07) is made up a competing militias and the goverment has little authority. Civilians are not sure where to turn for protection, "caught in the deepening fear and uncertainty." One example is forces loyal to Sadr vs. those loyal to Hakim, of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. Sadr is more anti-American, with followers who tend to be poor and young, while Hakim's followers tend to be older, more middle class, and better educated. Most now accept the fact that militias have infiltrated the local police and security forces. Officials are shot nearly every day. The Times reports that few people "know who to trust."

The US lost track about at least 200,000 guns given to Iraqi security forces. We learned in early August that just in 2004 and 2005, 190,000 AK-47 rifles and pistols have been lost, "raising fears," reported the lead Tribune article, that they may have fallen into the hands of insurgents fighting the US. This is about 30% of the weapons. The previous estimated of missing weapons was just 14,000. Nearly $3 billion have been spent on equipment for Iraqis and $19 billion if one includes training. About two weeks later the Times reported that the weapons loss was being criminally investigated. Only in November did the Iraqi government accept the 190,000 missing gun estimate.

A few weeks we it was reported that some of the weapons have made it to Turkey and used in violent crimes there.

Another Iraqi governor was murdered in late August, along with his driver and a guard.

Sectarian violence doubled through the summer of 2007, as compared to last year. As the Tribune reported on August 26, violence in Baghdad has been reduced from peak levels, daily sectarian deaths are 62 this year compared to 33 last year, concluded the AP. Sectarians deaths in Baghdad are still about half the deaths of the country. Some militants have gone north of the capital, to Diyala province, for example.

General Petraeus, in the weeks before his mid-September report to Congress, told lawmakers that the surge/buildup had produced "tactical momentum."

After Sadr called for a cease fire in late August, Maliki asked other groups to join. The militia remained quiet for a few months. However, Sadr City violence in mid-October resulted in the killing of about 50 Iraqis by US forces. The US said they were seeking a leader of a kidnapping ring but had to call in air support. Iraqi witnesses said one was an elderly woman and some of the wounded were children. Reports were condradictory, as usual. US forces were "unware" of any civilians being killed. Maliki vowed that his government would investigate and warned against accessive force.

In retrospect, why did violence decline in the fall of 2007? Besides Sadr's cease fire, I only learned in January 2008 that back in May Gen. Petraeus had decided to negotiate more actively with Sunni insurgents. Reductions in violence began in June. Some commentators are concerned that this policy is not a long-term solution because we are merely "buying off the enemy."

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Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) should be remade, according to an August 2007 independent commission set up by Congress. The 26,000 member national political force should be purged of corruption and those who commit sectarian killing. The current units should be scrapped. This could be risky given the Iraqi reaction to disbanding its military in 2003. One wonders why a commission is needed to conclude that the ISF.

About every 2-3 months the Times op-ed publishes an "Op-Chart." The September 4 one concluded that "there are signs that roughly 6/18 provinces are making significant economic and security gains," up from only 3/18 a year ago. In Ramadi, attacks are down 90%.

Could the violence have been lessened or the war avoided if the Army had only read the book it wrote on Iraq, 65 years ago? The Tribune front page story (8/7/07) was of the now eerie World War II era book of "instructions for American servicemen." It included this advice: "American success or failure in Iraq may well depend on whether the Iraqis...like American soldiers or not...Most Americans and Europeans who have gone to Iraq don't like it at first. Might as well be frank about it." Other suggestions were that tribal leaders had real power, talk Arabic "no matter how badly" and "remember that every American soldier is an unofficial ambassador of goodwill." One current soldier in Anbar feels those lesson have been forgotten.

On the day of the Petraeus report, the Times published an interactive map of Baghdad neighborhoods, "Assessing the Surge." Petraeus spoke of progress, especially militarily. A Post analysis wondered if he had his facts straight. For example, according to the administration, sectarian assassinations only count if one is shot in the back of the head, not the front.

On the day of President Bush's prime time speech, a Sunni tribal leader of Anbar was murdered. Al Qaeda in Iraq claimed responsibility, planned for a month. alRishawi had organized Sunni tribes and met with Bush over Labor Day and coordinated with US forces. "Revenge, revenge, revenge" vowed angry Sunnis. Where can he hide or run away, he who is wanted by us." A few days later the US military said it captured a suspect.

Fallujah was less violent, as no Marines were killed in wounded there for months. However, long-term prospects about the usefulness of Iraqi security forces were not optimistic.

See much more on Blackwater

The violence in Iraq since 2006, seems to be only about Blackwater, but there are certainly many other stories besides Blackwater. Just as Blackwater was still in the headlines, another shooting occurred back on October 9, 2006, and two women were killed. Their car which contractors allege failed to slow, was riddled with automatic gunfire with as many as 40 bullets. RTI's security, run by Australians, is not responsible to the State Department. Those killed were Armenian Christians. As with the Blackwater shootings, there were no government officials of policy experts in the convoys. However, in this case their was a video taken by a cell phone, "showing the driver's head had been blown off above the neck." The passenger had been shot in the chest several times, reported the Times front page story.

Yet another incident in October involved the British company Erinys International. A crowded taxi was fired into as it approached a convoy. One man lost his eye and two others were wounded. Said the blind man, "Those are savages and criminals and killers."

15 civilians (women and children) were killed in a US bombing in mid-October. The US apologized but said the alleged insurgents should not have been near civilians. The action northeast of Baghdad was defended by the US because alleged insurgents used civilians as "shields". Insurgents are thus "blamed" for the deaths of women and children. This was often alleged of Palestinians in attacks by Israelis in the past 10 or so years.

Sadly, the U.S. killing of civilians did not stop in mid-October. In fact, for three days in a row, women and children were killed by US helicopters. Reports were of the US firing on those Iraqis trying to care for the wounded. One battle was in Sadr City, where six women and three children were reported killed by the US. Winning the "hearts and minds" of the Iraqis will get tougher, because they probably won't blame insurgents for these deaths.

The Good News on violence came with September and Ramadan death totals. Ramadan of 2007 was far lower, according to most estimates, than the previous year.
Also see "Good News" FAQ.

Yet, the news seemed mixed as the Tribune reported in early October that "extremists beat and kill women" in southern, Shiite Iraq. If a woman is deemed as "not sufficiently Muslim" in appearance or dress, they can be killed by gangs. More than 15 bodies are scattered around Basra each month. Before 2003, Iraq was very liberal among middle eastern countries in this regard. Men have also been known to be attacked for clothes or haircuts deemed "too western."

A new strategy in the fall of 2007 is to "bait" Iraqis who are then killed by snipers. They kill anyone who picks up fake weapons and bomb-making material. The "baiting program" was first reported in the Washington Post.

The highest ranking US military general was injured in October 2007. The brigadier general was hit by a roadside bomb. Also that month Poland's ambassador to Iraq was wounded by a roadside bomb. He suffered burns to his head and hand.

The worst suicide bombing in weeks occurred in late October, in Baquba, which had been "cleared" of militants during the summer. Many insurgents had fled to other locations during the summer US offensive.

10 tribal Sheiks were kidnapped in October. They had just met with Maliki. One was killed and the other released after a few weeks. The sheiks were both Sunni and Shiite. One Sunni sheik that month explained that his group had "frozen" its insurgent operations but was not allied with the US or Iraqi government. Recruiting of Sunnis has led Shiites to allege that "The American forces armed the terrorist groups."

Sunnis who were US allies allege that 50 of their followers were killed in a US bombing. US reports conflict with this version. The Awakening Council, active in fighting al Qaeda, made the complained. US military responded that Sunni groups "are not authorized to act independently of the law to 'round up' Al Qaeda members of any other criminals themselves." US often talks are "arresting dozens" though many are often released within a day.

NPR's Tom Bullock is tired and frustrated by the violence. He has been to Iraq dozens of times. Hear Bullocks' moving NPR piece from October 22, 2007.

The air war heated up in 2007, as first predicted by experts in 2006. The increases were five-fold. This could be one factor in decreased US fatalities in the second half of 2007. For the year, On one day in mid-January 2008, the US dropped 40,000 pounds of bombs on the outskirts of Baghdad. 38 bombs were dropped within 10 minutes. This was part of a new US operation, "Operation Phantom Phoenix." The Tribune further reported.

We learned more about the air war in early 2008. The US dropped nearly 1500 bombs in 2007, nearly four a day, up from four a week in 2006. Human rights groups are concerned that the 500 pound and 2000 pound bombs threaten civilians when dropped in civilian areas, as the Post reported (1/17/08). The military says it seeks to minimize civilians casualties. The UN estimate that from April to the end of 2007, 200 civilians were killed. Air strikes increased after this period.

In the fall of 2007 the US tended not to emphasize the training of Iraqi security forces. In 2005 and 2006, these monthly numbers were touted as progress. The Special IG for Iraqi reconstruction, Stuart Bowen, reported in late October that after $19 billion to train and equip Iraqis security forces, just 10 or 140 units were operating independently. 70,000 local fighters were armed by the US, we learned in November. 80% are Sunnis, upsetting Shiites and their militias. In October, Maliki called on the recruiting to halt. The Tribune reported that in some cases, "the government has confined the fighters to their headquarters or local mosques." There aren't enough people to train and vet, feels a top British military officials. About 2/3 of these "Concerned Local Citizens" have been screened, fingerprinted and had biometric date recorded. About 1/2 are paid, roughly $300/month.

The training program would be capped at 100,000, we learned a few weeks later. Shiites are upset that the mostly Sunni group could simply reformulate their militias. The 77,000 are sometimes called volunteers, though 60,000 are paid $300/month by the US.

A very lengthy report came from the Times just before Christmas. "In a Force for Iraqi Calm, Seeds of Conflict." The Sunni Awakening Movement has helped to lesson violence. In retrospect, the group was probably born as early as 2005, but was only reported on in 2007. Attacks in Anbar are way down. Yet, rivalries and sectarianism persist. The forces could be the seeds for a civil war. The front page story includes questions such as: "How, when thousands are joining each month, can spies and extremists be reliably weeded out? How can the men's loyalty be maintained, given their tribal and sectarian ties, and in many cases their insurgent pasts? And crucially, how can the movement be sustained once the Americans turn over control to a Shiite-dominated government that has been wary, and sometimes hostile, toward the groups?" If the money from the US stops, will their loyalties stopped, as occurred in Afghanistan? The movement has given great power to un-elected tribal leaders.

For possible violence with Turkey in Oct/Nov 2007, see "Allies" FAQ.

By early November 2007 had become the deadliest year of the war for the U.S. See much more on "Death" and injuries, of both Americans and Iraqis.

Ironically, US officials expressed optimism that week. Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has been routed from all of Baghdad so US troops can leave as planned. 13% of the city has not been "cleared." Violence is down. Said one top official, "Murder victims are down 80%" from the peak and IED attacks are "down 70%." Overall, attacks are down to below the Samarra shrine bombing of February 2006. There were "only" 575 attacks in a week of mid-November, which includes car bombs, roadside bombs, mines, mortars, rockets, surface-to-air missiles, and small arms. Gen. Simmons spoke of attacks down by half since March. The Pentagon attributed these positive signs to four factors: improvement in Iraqi security forces, Sadr's cease fire, disruption of insurgent financing, and Iraqi's rejection of "rule of the gun." Iran's cooperation, was added a few days later, and endorsed by the Iraq government. The Iraqis were pleased that Iran had helped restrain Sadr. "Citizen volunteers" now total 67,000, according to the US military. By late December estimates rose to 72,000. These numbers are reminiscent of the US bragging about training hundreds of thousands of Iraqis security forces to take over from the US. Their training was poor or they were not dedicated to their jobs. These new Sunni allies are paid by the US not Iraq. Their pay is about $300 per months, less than police officers. The biggest threat to Baghdad is now Shiite militias. Also see "Good News" FAQ.

Liz Sly, (also see more stories by Sly) reporting in the Tribune of Nov. 18, examines the impressive decreases in violence.

Two days later the banner NYTimes headline on the front page was, "As Security Improves, Baghdad Starts to Exhale. Iraqis Begin to Reclaim Lost Lives, but Most Still Can't Go Home." After 4 million Iraqis became homeless (two million refugees, and two million homeless within Iraq), one Baghdad woman has returned home. "And yet, she and her family are remarkably alone." The 45 year old librarian no longer has fear control her life. "Days pass" without a car bombing in her neighborhood, bodies appearing on the streets have been reduced (5 in Baghdad per day, down from 35 eight months ago) and other violence is down. In some Baghdad neighborhoods "women are also dressing as they wish. Wedding bands are playing in public again, and at a handful of once shuttered liquor stores, customers now line up outside in a collective rebuke to religious vigilantes from the Shiite Mahdi Army.

Gen. Petraeus reported attacks down 60%, at the end of 2007. Though security gains are temporary and fragile, he emphasized 60% reduction in "high-profile" violence against the US since June. The "principal threat" is al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and the principal reason for the decline is the surge. Other articles mention Sadr's truce, "ethnic cleansing" being completed, and less interference from Iran. Attacks had not fallen in the north.

Violence against Sunni Awakening came from al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, also a Sunni group.

See Iraqi Politics 2007 for more details.

Columnist David Ignatius sees hope on the eve of Thanksgiving. The Post columnist feels the surge is working to reduce violence but sees possible "signs of peril" in the future.

Thomas Friedman feels that extremists have dug their own grave (11/25/07), because "they don't know when to stop. That was the key to the surge. The pro-Qaeda Iraqi Sunnis went way too far--in beheading people, suicide-bombing mosques, forcing marriages with the daughters of Sunni tribal sheiks and demanding that men grow bears and stop drinking whiskey. This was extreme fundamentalism that prompted" Sunnis to rise up, "risking their own lives, even aligning themselves with America, to defend their more moderate, traditional, Sunni way of life from the jihadists." The Times columnist concludes, "Most Americans would still like to see us salvage something decent in Iraq--if it can be done at a reasonable cost."

In a pattern we have seen before, insurgents from Baghdad and Baquba have simply relocated to other areas. In October, attacks in Kirkuk increased. There is fear that Sunnis who have resettled there may continue their violence. In the past, periods of less violence have ended. Perhaps this period will be the exception.

These wishes were shattered on November 23 when a popular Baghdad animal market exploded. With 13 dead and 57 wounded from two homemade bombs hidden inside a bird box, the scene of carnage "was a cruel reminder that the decline in violence...is relative and may not last." (Times, 11/24/07). The US military alleged the bombing was carried out by an Iranian-backed Shiite militia. Iran feels the US "is making propaganda against Iran."

Just two days later came with a car bomb in Baghdad, killing 9 and wounding 31.

The Mahdi army was becoming less popular among some Shiites in Baghdad, reported a front page Times story in mid-October. At one point this militia was seen as their only protection against Sunnis. Mahdi army fighters was "sunk into a criminality that is often blind to sect." With senior commanders arrested by the US, undisciplined teenagers have become leaders on the streets. "They are bloodthirsty" said one Iraqi man. Cars are stolen and shipped to Kurdistan.

US forces claimed in late December to have killed 11 militiamen who were members of the Mahdi army. US helicopters shelled the area, as houses and cars were set on fire. US military says its forces were "responding in self-defense."

Insurgents push north, we learned (again) in early December. Those pushed out of Baghdad and Anbar and ventured north could include the leader of al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, Abu Ayyub-al Masri. The US announced a few weeks later that from Feb-Nov, 3600 member of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia were killed or captured. One doesn't know how many were released uncharged.

As Gates visited Iraq in early December car bombs killed 22 in one day. Though he strongly cautioned against declaring a premature victory, Gates left "encouraged" and with "measured optimism" despite the admitted lack of political progress from the central government. He highlighted the political progress on the local levels. Unlike his predecessor Rumsfeld, Gates emphasized that "Nobody says anything about turning corners, seeing lights at the ends of tunnels. Added Gen. Petraeus, "there is much hard work still to be done." He highlighted US statistics about declining violence:
--High-profile attacks, such as car bombs and suicide bombers: down 60% since March
--Civilians deaths: back to 2005 levels
--US military loses: lowest in 20 months (though 2007 has been the deadliest year for US troops)

The Sec. of Defense announced that he was against the Marines requested to be moved from Iraq to Afghanistan. In other leadership/military news, Petraeus was being considered as top NATO chief in mid-January. By fall, the General, now 55, will have served 19 months in command in Iraq and 47 months there in three tours.

One of the most deadly attacks in months came in mid-December when a triple car bombing in Amara killed at least 27 and wounded 150. Reported one witness, "I aw human flesh flying here and there." British troops, who handed over Basra that week, had handed over this Maysan Province in April. Though Sunnis extremists are usually blamed, Amara is under tight control by Shiites.

In November and December, governors, provincial leaders, and police chiefs continued to be killed. One motivation might be to respond to those cracking down on militias.

In mid-January 2008, an Iraqi messianic "cult" ignited gunfights in which 80 were killed in southern Iraq. Shiite worshipers panicked. The "Soldiers of Heaven" or "Supporters of Mahdi" are named after the 9th century imam, considered a saint. Imam Mahdi went into higding and Shiites beleivfe he will return, along with Jesus, to lead Muslims "in a struggle for justice." Spreading chaos, they believe, can hasten his return. They fight to the death.

Five British man kidnapped were threatened. Unless Britain withdrew its forces within 10 days, one of the men was threatened with death, according to The Islamic Shiite Resistance in Iraq. The group claimed that "The British infidels and occupiers had confessed and declared their agenda that they came to steal our wealth under the fake cover." Four of the five were security contractors. British troops are expected to be down to 2500 in the next few months. Also see "Allies" FAQ for more on the British in Iraq.

ABC News reported that an American woman working for private contractor KRB was gang raped in Baghdad's Green Zone, held in a container for 24 hours with no food or water, and then threatened if she told anyone. Jamie Leigh Jones is frustrated over State Department or others bringing any charges, so she has filed a civil law suit.

"Limbo for US Women Reporting Iraq Assaults" was the Times front page headline of mid-February, 2008. Mary Beth Kineston, of Ohio, had her truck ambushed in April 2004. She was sexually assaulted by another driver, a co-contractor of KBR. After complaining, she felt in legal limbo and was fired. US courts cannot help her. Other women feel intimidated about bringing claims of assault or harassment. Army helicopters rescued her. "I felt safer on the convoys with the Army than I ever did working for KBR."

Journalists continue to be killed in record numbers. 2007 was the worst year for journalists, worldwide, since 1994, with the Rwandan genocide and Bosnian violence. Nearly half of the 64 deaths of 2007 came in Iraq. It is the deadliest country for journalists for the fifth consecutive year. Most were targeted not innocent cross-fire. Said the head of the Committee to Protect Journalists, "These journalists gave their lives so that all of us could be informed about what is happening in Iraq. By January 2008, 125 journalists and 50 support staff have been killed in Iraq.

Two CBC journalists came up missing in Basra. After about a week in mid-February, there was no news about them. One was released after about a week, with a Sadr ally taking the credit.

Violence in Basra became a front page story in late February. Though Basra's "experiment in self-rule could serve as a model for Iraq's future...that future remains dark." The situation in Basra seems to be positive because it has the country's best economic base, little ethnic tension as nearly all are Shiite, and no more British "occupation force to inflame nationalist tensions." However, doctors, teachers, and other professionals continue to disappear, and competing militias fight, based on their political party. At least 100 women were slayed last year. Other murder victims include judicial investigators, politicians, and tribal sheiks. Though there are 16,000 policemen, few are seen on the street.

NPR's Weekend Edition (3/9/08) examined protests in Basra due to the lack of safety. They are upset with killings and kidnappings. The violence is Shiite vs. Shiite and seems to be with militias vying for oil and power.

With the thousands of Iraqis training and on patrol with Americans, we should perhaps we surprised that the following story did not appear before January, 2008. Actually, the story was not released by the Pentagon for a over a week. Two American soldiers were deliberately shot and killed by an Iraqi soldier. How loyal are Iraqi forces? The Iraqi soldier had been in the army for a year.

While violence in the new year continued to be lower in Anbar and other areas, violence was up in Mosul and other parts of northern Iraq. For example, in mid January, 5 severed heads were found in Baquba. The Times describes how the killers used blood "to scrawl a gruesome warning in Arabic across the severed foreheads: Join the American-backed militias "and you will end up like this.'" That same day 9 Americans were killed in one day, most in a booby-trapped house. They were engaged in the third offensive in a year, north of Baghdad. The US expected to find about 200 fighters in Diyala, but most have escaped or blended in. With thousands of US troops, tanks and copters moving in, it was obvious to some Iraqis that an offensive was coming.

Sunni allies were assasinated, usually by other Sunnis. At least 100 have been killed in the past month, mostly around Baghdad in Baquba. At least six were senior "Awakening" leaders. From October to early February, attacks doubled. Payments were said to be $10 a day. The "Awakening" somehow got renamed in early 2008 to "civilian groups." Who did the renaming and why?

One problem explained in a commentary of late January is that "there are not enough fresh units to replace those in the field." Iraqis opposed to the occupation "have not been eliminated, but are merely lying low. The media focus on al-Qaeda is misleading, since it is a minor component" compared to militias. (The Albany Times, 1/31/08, commentary).

As women suicide bombings increased in 2007 (10) and early 2008 (4 by mid-February and 6 by early March), there was also a fear of children being armed. Diyala was especially hard hit from November through January. A seized video shows boys training the fight. The Times article (2/7/08) opens ominously: "The children in black--T-shirts, trousers and face masks--hoist AK-47s and pistols and rush toward an apparently unarmed man on a bicycle. In an instant they have surrounded him, shouting in the high voices of boys who are not yet men, "Put your hands behind your back." It is believed to be part of an al Qaeda in Mesopotamia propaganda tape. Some boys are teenagers, but others look to be only 10 or 11. A US spokesman feels that insurgents "want to poison the next generation of Iraqis."

Judges continued to be killed into 2008. Doctors, lawyers, professors, and other professional are targeted. Said one Iraqi lawyer, "This is a disaster for the Iraqi judiciary." See more on judges in Iraq Politics FAQ section.

In other stories outside of Blackwater from back in 2008, Sadr, out of the headlines in early 2008, would not say if his 6 month truce would be extended past its expiration of late February 2008. By later in the month, he announced an extension of the cease-fire for six months. One hopes this would lead to less violence. Sadrists in the south don't like the cease-fire because they often clash with al-Hakim's allies and those in the secuirty forces.

Soon after, Sadr decided to break from politics. Not seen in public since May, the Shiite leader is disillusioned with the political scene, feeling that some of his followers have betrayed him, leaving him sick and anxious. Sadr will pray and reflect, while likely studying in Najaf to be an Ayatollah. The US military claims he is in Qom, Iran, a holy city.

Also see "Good News" FAQ.

Faulty planning was one reason the Army could not keep down violence as the war became an insurgency in late 2003. In February 2008, we learned of a classified report by the RAND corporation. The Army had sought to keep it "under lock and key," according to the front page Times piece. RAND identified problems "with nearly every organization that had a role in planning the war. That assessment parellels the verdicts of numerous former officials and independent analysts. Bush and Rice are "chided" for failing to solve differences between State and Defense. The reports was submitted (but not made public) when Bush was trying to rebut building criticism in 2005. As the Times reported, One serious problem the study described was the administration's "assumption that the reconstruction requirements would be minimal...'Building public support for any pre-emptive or preventive war is inherently challenging, since by definition, action is being taken before the threat has fully manifested itself. Any serious discussion of the costs and challenges of reconstrutction might undermine efforts to build that support.'" Protecting borders was not a priority, even in 2005, so insurgents were able to flow in. Responded US General Lovelace, "The RAND study simply did not deliver a product that could have assisted the Army in paving a clear way ahead; it lacked the perspective needed for future planning by the US Army."

Author Patrick Cockburn, two of whose books I have read, was interviewed on Fresh Air. Terry Gross's 40 minute interview examines the violence and politics of Iraq. Cockburn, journalist for the British Independent has written Occupation. Cockbrun is concerned about "the tenouous calm in Iraq," with Sadr threatening to end his cease fire. His spring 2008 book is on Sadr.

The deadly Feb. 1 pet market twin suicide bombs were first alleged to be set off by down syndrome women. However, an investigation concluded that they suffered from depression and schizophrenia. A Yale professor feels that these symptoms turn to violence in "only a very small number of cases."

Shiite religious pilgrims were killed in February 2008. At least 52 died in one day.

Though violence in December reached its lowest level in more than a year, since then it has begun to rise, though still lower than a year ago. Northern Iraq is now the most violent region, with about 60% of the violence.

Young Iraqis are disenchanted, with violence leading them to doubt clerics. A front page Times story (3/4/08) describes their exhaustion after nearly five years of war. They are constantly exposed to "the violence of religious extremists" leading them to become skeptical of the faith preached. Said one 19 year old from a Shiite Baghdad neighborhood, "The religion men are liars."

Overall, who is causing the violence? The 2/08 answer from Gen. Odierno was about half from Shiite militants, some trained and financed by Iran. Iran, he feels, seeks of weak Iraq government. Most of the rest of the violence is caused by Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. The Iraq Army is lacking equipment.

One Iraqi lawmaker was charged in early 2009 with masterminding attacks. The Sunni allegedly led a string of murders, kidnappings, and bomings, including one on Parliament in 2007. He denied wrongdoing and blamed the Iranians.

Where do insurgents get their money? Partly from corruption and stolen oil, reported a detailed Times front-page story from mid-March. One commander of several US platoons complained that oil is "the money pit of the insurgency." Many feel that money more than jihadist ideology, is more of a motivation for Sunnis. For example, one can be paid $100 for hiding a roadside bomb. "They are just trying to feed their families," claims a US Major. Recruits can be hired and payment can be made for large-scale attacks. Kidnapping also adds to funds for violence. Bogus gas stations are opened. At one refining in Bajii, the US estimates that $2 billion (70%) disappeared into the black market. The insurgents gain about $50,000 to $100,000 per day, illegally, from Bajii. Iraqi officials estimate that overall, insurgents receive about 50% of all oil profits. Others who benefit include criminal gangs, tribes, the Iraqi police, and government officials. Thus, we shouldn't be surprised that Iraqis beg for refinery jobs, even offering to work for no pay. Thus comes the 2007 US policy to pay former insurgents to join pro-US militias.

The reported success surge seemed to some as about to unravel as fewer Americans stay informed about the violence.

In mid-March the "surge success" in reducing violence appeared to be ending. Whereas violence was down from about November to January, increases began in February and broadened even more in March.

Sadr's militia fought with Iraq forces in Baghdad and Basra for 6 violent days in late March. At least hundreds of Iraqi forces, despite the encouragement of Maliki, laid down their arms and refused to fight. A few days later, the government dismised 550 police. The US Air Force was called in for bombings. After eleborate negotiations in Iran, Sadr announced a cease fire, seeming to have increased his power. Sadr demanded amnesty for his fighters, release of Sadrist prisoners who have not been convicted, and return of displaced people who have fled due to military actions. Maliki seemed weakened after having promised a military victory. He suspended raids on the militia. The US wants Maliki to crack down on militias, but claims the operation was Iraqi.

Another Iraqi company ignored US pleas in Baghdad and abandoned their positions in mid-April. As part of a front page Times headline, 50 troops were reported to have refused to fight.

What is next for Sadr? There could be another standoff with US and/or Iraqi forces in Baghdad. He plans a march in Baghdad on the fifth anniversary of the US capture of the capital. One Sadrist preacher told a crowd, "We want the occupier to leave our land; we should walk in crowds, and we must fill in the ground in order to show our refusal to everyone who tries to destroy our holy land." I wonder if to "fill in the ground" being willing to die?

Why are militias as power as the Iraqi military? One reason is that the Iraqi army was disbanded in 2003. A decision made by Paul Bremer, became controversial when stability declined, looting began, and the insurgency took hold. See the film No End in Sight for details on 2003-2004. In mid-March 2008, we learned that the choice to disband bypassed debate. The Sec. of State of top US commanders were not asked for their counsel. Commented one think tank expert, "The most portentous decision of the occupation was carried out stealthily and without giving the president's principal advisers an opportunity to consider it and give the president their views." Bremer claims that he was following the chain of command from Rumsfeld. Gen. Meyers does not recall any "robust" debate. Gen. Abizaid, retired, refused comment for the lengthy Times piece.

In April, as the US continued to attack in Sadr City, Sadr threatened "open war." The Green Zone was attacked with rockets nearly daily, with Americans being killed inside the Green Zone for the first time of the war. In late April, Secretary Rice "removed kids gloves to blast Sadr" reported the Tribune. With 700 people dead in the last month in Sadr City, Rice lashed out with "taunting comments." "He is still living in Iran," Ms. Rice said, "I guess it's all-out war for anybody but him. His followers can go to their death and he will still be in Iran." Sadr warned of "open warfare" if US operations did not cease in Baghdad and Basra. One explosion in the Green Zone cam just minutes before Rice unveiled a plaque.

What is the Green Zone really like? The Tribune told us in April that the US had taken official ownership of the mammoth new embassy. There are 27 buildings over 104 acres, about the size of the country of Vatican City, at 108 acres. The complex has cost over $750 million and has working space for 1000 people.

Into May, daily violence with US forces continued in Sadr City. A tentative cease fire in Sadr City seemed to take hold in mid-May. Over 1000 had already been killed. Some describe the fighting as Shiite vs. Shiite, or, as I've coined it, Sadr vs. Badr (Hakim). Some government troops refused to fight and fled. By late May government troops were free to patrol Sadr City.

Basra was more peaceful by mid-May.

As might be expected, US missiles killed civilians. One of these attacks was on a Baghdad hospital. In early May, three missiles killed 28 and children were injured.

How is Iraq connected to Guantanamo? A Kuwaiti man, detained in Gitmo for three years and released in 2005, became a suicide bomber. In April in Mosul, Al-Ajmi was a rare Kuwaiti suicide bomber. The US military reported that 90% of suicide bombers have been foreign. I've not heard any estimates of what countries provide the most suicide bombers, thought Saudi Arabia would very likely be in the top 2 or 3. Al-Ajmi alleged that he was abused while in prison. Also see "Torture III" FAQ.

A cluster bomb ban came back into the news in May of 2008. The ban was passed by numerous countries, including the UK, over the objections of the US. The victims of cluster bombs tend to be children and civilians. Israel used them in their 2006 war with Lebanon. The Times even dedicated an editorial to the topic of cluster bombs.

In May the Tribune's lead editorial examined Al Qaeda's new enemy, Sunni tribesmen from Anbar. "You want good news from Iraq? There it is, in flashing neon. The Sunnis don't want al Qaeda fundamentalism. Though seen as "a success story," the paper advises "caution" because tribal elders could change sides again.

Bob Woodward's latest book was released in early September, 2008. The War Within: A Secret Whtie House History 2006-2008 examines reasons for the decrease in violence since the surge. Woodward reports on "groundbreaking" new and secret techniques to find, target, and kill insurgent leaders. The surge was thus not the primary factor in reducing violence.

Iraqis took control of Anbar in September. Once the most violence area of the country, including Fallujah, Sunni tribal leaders had turned against al Qaeda, as former Sunni insurgents were now paid about $300/month by the US. It is less clear what will happen when these Sunni "Awakening" or "Sons of Iraq" fighters are led by the Shiite central government. Of the 18 Iraqi provinces, 11 have now been turned over. The US has about 26,000 troops in Anbar.
Since the war began, Anbar has been the most violence for Americans, with over 1100 killed. Baghad is also at 1100. Then comes a dropoff to 300 is Salahuddin, northwest of Baghdad, and Diyala, north of the capital. In three Kurdish regions in the NE part of the country, no Americans have been killed. In Anbar, over 275 Americans were killed in 2004, 2005, and 2006, but only 17 through more than half of 2008.

In early October with Ramadan ending with Eid al-Fitr, bombs and gunfire killed 24 worshippers near two Shiite mosques in Baghdad.

The new weapons of choice in November 2008 was the "sticky bomb" attached to cars. The NPR team led by Ivan Watson was nearly assasinated with one such bomb at the end of the month.

December included a series of suicide bombs, klling 32 on one day. At the Baghdad police academcy, students leaving for lunch were struck. There were pools of blood and a piece of a foot. "This is the flesh of Iraqi people, and it is all because of Maliki." Another survivor blamed the US: "All of our troubles are because of the Americans." In Mosul, a US-Iraqi convoy was struck. That day 12 bodies were found near Kirkuk.

One of the December bombings targeted Shiite pilgrims, preparing to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, who students of Middle East history may recall is the grandson of the Prophet Muhammed. Muharram is the holiest month for Shiites. Said one wounded man, "It was an unexpected massacre of simple people going to visit the shrine."

While January 2009 was the best month for Americans deaths (only 4) it wasn't good for the four all killed at once in a helicopter crash. The was the single biggest toll in four months. The cuase of the crash was at first unclear, though an insurgent group claimed credit, Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order.

Body armor came back in the picture, with 16,000 sets being recalled for failing tests. The audit has not yet been made public.

The Gamble, a new book by Thomas Ricks, came out in February. This follows up in Rick's 2006 book, Fiasco. A Times review describes Ricks' efforts to chronicle the 2006 unraveling of Iraq, how Bush finally admitted it was off course and how new commanders such as Petraeus put into place a radically different strategy. The subtitle to the book is, "General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008." Ricks feels the best grade he can give the surge is "a solid incomplete." The risks of leaving are too great to the region. Rick's examines the rolls of Rumsfeld and McCain. It took too long for the Bush administration to admit a problem, as dissent was suppressed and Bush substituted "loyalty for analysis." We learn that Odierno and Petraeus had been skeptical of the invasion in 2003. This "unnecessary war of choice" may become "American's longest war." The review concludes that the book is "important and chilling." Writes Ricks, rather modestly, "the events for which the Iraq war will be remembered probably have not yet happened."
See commentary on scores of more books. and films.

In the heavily fortified Green Zone, Iraqi soldiers now handle all checkpoints. American helicopters and drones hover overhead but "Iraqi boots are on the ground," pointed out the front page Times article in early February. How secure will the "exit" road to Kuwait be for the beginning of the US withdrawal? Outside of Ninevah, Diyala, and areas around Baghdad, most of the country is mostly calm.

A new security agreement was violated by the US military, Iraqi leaders reported a few days later. In Kirkuk, Americans stormed a house and killed suspected insurgents, but Iraqi authorities did not work in "full coordination" as required. They also felt that the victims were not alleged to be insurgents. "The Americans forces stormed into our house," described the son of one of the victims, "and handcuffed me, by two bothers and my uncle. When my father came out of his room, they opened fire on him point blank and then they stuffed his body in a large, black plastic bag." The US claimed that the man killed was suspected of manufacturing explosives and had resisted arrest. The security agreement had been signed in November.

In late February, Iraqi officials announced the death penalty for 28 "cultists", Shiites who attacked Shiites two years ago near Najaf. Hundreds were killed in the battle. The "Followers of the Mahdi" part of the "Soldiers of Heaven" hope to sow chaos to hasten the coming of the Mahdi, the 12th imam, who disappeared in the 9th century. These Shiites believe he will return as a savior of humanity. 19 others were sentenced to life in prison.

In March a famed Iraqi soccer goalie was celebrating his team's victory in near Basra. An off-duty policement fired his gun in celebration, but he lost control of the gun and shot the goalie in the head, killing the 18 year old high school senior.

12 Iraqi policmen were arrested and charged with kidnappings and killings.

GI's killed a 12 year old, after they claimed he threatened them by throwing a grenade at a patrol in Mosul. A US official thinks that a new trend may be for Iraqis to pay children to commit violence. Mosul, one of Iraq's most violent areas, is contested between Arabs and Kurds, and also contains Christians.

In May a roadside bomb killed five Americans, including one from the State Department who helped lead the Iraq Transition Assistance Office. Terrence Barnich was from Chicago. The attack took place, reported the Times, "within a few miles of the bridge where four American contractors [from Blackwater] were killed in March 2004, their bodies burned and mutilated, and dragged through the streets. The jarring images of that attack were a major factor" the US attacks on Fallujah.

In response to a 2007 killing of five Americans, a suspect was released in June 2009. This senior Shiite insurgent was said to be backed by Iran. The release of British hostages was likely part of the negotiations.

Five Americans were arrested for stabbing a fellow contractor in June, 2009. The five men could be tried under Iraqi law, under the agreement made in the January 1 security deal. Previously, US contractors were immune from prosecution under Iraqi law. The man killed was James Owen Kitterman, president of Janus Construction.

Violence increased in June 2009, perhaps in reaction to the looming deadline of US troop withdrawal from cities, June 30. Large bombings killed hundreds in just a few days.

One report in June 2009 gave some perspective to the violence. There has been a decline since the worst of 2006 and 2007, but "attacks continue almost daily against Iraqi and American forces, while an intermittent pattern of major attacks continue to wreak havoc, often aimed at civilians in markets, mosques, and other public places...Many of the attacks appear intended to stoke sectarian tensions, and all have raised concerns--and increasingly anger--that Iraq' security forces are not prepared to provide more security as American support steadily diminishes."

A few days after the Iranian elections of June 12 a leading Sunni cleric was assasinated at a mosque, a day after he denouced abuse in Iraqi prisons. I suspect a Shiite militia. He is the 4th MP to be killed since 2005. Other murders in June included the Iraqi coach of the karate team. The Sunni lived in Mosul.

After US troops left Iraqi cities at the end of June 2009, violence increased. Nearly 100 were killed in a 3 day period. About 560 civilians were killed from June 30-August 11. For example, a mid-August wave of killing and bombings were in Baghdad and northern Iraq, leveling an entire village near Mosul. In what "looked like the village's main road, storefronts were ripped up, and destroyed vehicles were toosed everywhere by two huge truck bombs. One man said he lost 12 members of his vamily. Most of the victims are Shiites, who are showing restraint and vow not to reply for an eye for an eye (or a bomb for a bomb). "Shiite Islam" reports the Times, "is all about patience and the long view, waiting for the hidden 13th iman. In 2006, many Shiites turned to militias to protect them. Now they are in power for the first time in 1000 years.

The most deadly bombing in months took place on August 19, when two huge trucks bombs in Baghdad killed 95 and wounded 500. Targets were the Foreign and Finance ministries. The huge craters left were 30 feet deep and 60 feet wide. The White House pointed out that the number of attacks is down. However, more people are dying. One truck had 2 tons of explosives. This was the most violent attack since at least the end of June, and came after Maliki took a checkpoint and took down a blast wall. The attacks were coordinated and sophisticated. It could have been worse. A truck with 2200 pounds of ammonium nitrate fertilzer was found abandoned near the Foreign Ministry.

A suspect in the 2006 murder of 13 tae kwon do team members was arrested in September. The team had been traveling in two sports utility vehicles.

In the fall of 2009, is Iraq making progress? Every few months Michael O'Hanlon (and others) of the Brookings Institute publishes his "State of the Conflict" update in the oped pages of the Times. Most of it is in chart form, this time including Afghanistan and comparing August 2009 to August of 2007 and 2005. The violence is summarizes thusly: "...Despite several worrisome developments this year, including the twin car bombings in Baghdad on Aug. 19 [killing over 100], violence has not worsened this year on balance. The country remains between peace and war, closer to the former if still very troubled.

Twin deadly attacks in Baghdad in October killed 155. The vehicles were a two ton van and a minibus, which passed through multiple security checkpoints on that fateful Sunday morning. The two blast were only one minute apart. There were reports that a day care center was ruined. One local police official said 30 children had been killed, while the AP reported 24. "There were children killed in the swings, others who died right where they sat on the seesaws," said a taxi driver. The Islamic State of Iraq, an umbrella group which includes Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a largely Iraqi group with some foreign leadership, claimed responsibility.

Armed gangs control an Iraqi campus, which led to its closure in October. Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, attended by 24,000 students and one of Iraq's most prestigious university, was closed by Maliki. A shadowy student gang culture is accused of murdering, torturing and raping fellow students, and killing professors and administrators. Most recently, a 63 year old Education professor was beat and pistol-whipped on campus. He went to Maliki with his bloody clothes. The next day, the University was closed. Since 2007, bombings have killed or maimed 335 students and staff.

Bomb Detectors can even be controversial. Iraqis swear by the 1500 ADE 651 they have purchased for up to $60,000 each. The US and other forces think they are worthless.

$26 can intercept drone video, we learn in December 2009. The military has known about the problem for months. Sky Grabber, which costs only $26, can intercept transmission of movies and music and video from the unmanned drones flying over Iraq. The US may be adding more encryption.

Al Qaeda in Iraq is adjusting, say US commanders. Its attacks are less frequent but more catastrophic, due to dwindling funds. Its targets are more often the government. Some Iraqis now have senior leadership positions. Back in 2006-2007, more than 125 foreign fighters flowed into Iraq each month.

During Ashura, the holy day, Shiites pilgrims were again targetted on their way to Karbala, where Husayn was martyred in 680. 50,000 soldiers and police were deployed. Saddam Hussein has forbidden the religious marches and celebrations. While "only" two dozens marchers were killed in the early days of December 2009, back in 2004 180 were killed and nearly 75 the following year, from 11 suicide bombers.

In mid January 2010, gunmen attacked a charity in a Sunni neighborhood. It was a rare attack on a nongovernmental organization.

An Iraqi, al-Khazali, was accused of killing 5 GI's in 2007 was transfered in January from a US prison to an Iraqi prison. The transfer came hours before a militia released a British computer expert, Peter Moore, who had been held for over two years. One week after the transfer he was freed by the Iraqi government.

Targets in the fall of 2009 and start of 2010 were often government ministries, offices, colleges, and a bank. From August to January, bombing in or outside government buildings killed over 400 and wounded over 1500. In mid-January 4-10 suicide bombers were arrested with 440 pounds each of TNT and C-4, ammonium nitrate solution and mortar shells.

Pilgrims were attacked and killed repeatedly in February. With a sense of fatalism, one Shiite said, "They think these explosions can stop us from marching but if I die today in an explosionk, that will be a gift from God."

Bomb detector fraud was a top story in January 2010. A British executive was charge with faulty bomb detectors, used at checkpoints. The export of the devices has been banned, because British troops could be at risk. Horrific bombings over the last six could have been prevented if the hundreds of checkpoints in Baghdad had detected these huge bombs. However, the Iraqi Ministry of Interior and police officers continue to use the devises. The Iraqi government had paid $85 million to the British company. The devices cost $250 to make, makerted for $16,000 but sold for up to $60,000. Said one associate of the company ATSC, "Everyone... knew there was nothing insdide the ADE 651. Since at least November, the US military has considered the devises useless. The ADE 651 is handheld with no batteries but supposedly powered by the person who walks in place while using it. ATSC brochures claim that the devise can "detect minute traces of explosives, drugs, or even human remains at distances of up to 6 miles by air, of 3/5th of a mile by land." However, the Times report says that scientific trials show similar devices are no more accurate than a coin toss. The company is working on a less primitive model with "flashing lights."

An American contractor was kidnapped in mid-February. Issa Salomi, 60, had been missing since Jan. 23. It is the first reported kidnapping of an American in a year. The video of the man, said to be Salomi, was shown by the League of Righteous, a Shiite group. He said that his kidnappers were "demanding the release of other militants from jail and the prosecution or proper compensation of former Blackwater security guards..." It was not clear whether Salomi worked for Blackwater. The militants group has also demanded an immediate withdrawal of US troops. The same group was believed to have kidnapped Britain Peter Moore, who was released after two years, within hours after the group's leader had been transferred from US to Iraqi authority.

US Drone use is down in Iraq, and up in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 10 Predators fly over Iraq every day, firing only 6 times in 2009, compared to 77 times in 2008.

Also see US Politics Since 11/06. and US Politics Since 7/07 and Deaths Charts

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